Can Britain’s slow lane economy manage to eke out growth for two months on the trot for the first time since September?
That does not seem a very high bar to aspire to yet such are the grim realities of the UK’s parlous situation that it would be seized as major triumph by Downing Street after the autumn recession.
The consensus forecast among City scribes point to a 0.1% advance in GDP when the scores on the doors for February are revealed on Friday. Following the 0.2% mini-boom (by recent standards) in January that would represent something of a sustained spurt on recent performance.
But hang on to your hats.
The anecdotal feedback I hear consistently is that consumer spending remains fragile, with interest rates still at 5.25%, and business cost pressures have not gone away.
Throw in “noises off” such as the diversion of shipping away from the Red Sea thanks to the Houti attacks, and the relentlessly awful weather, and my guess would be that UK plc will do well to reach the heady heights of 0.1%.
In the memorable words of Panmure Gordon economist Simon French the UK’s GDP performance has long been “a data series of random numbers trending around zero”.
I hope I am wrong but there has been something of a “paradise postponed” feel about the long awaited economic recovery going back all the way to the pandemic.
JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon’s tour d’horizon message to shareholders this week outlined many reasons why inflation may prove harder to master than the Bank of England currently hopes, delaying and slowing the interest rate cuts that would provide a welcome adrenaline rush.
Let’s hope the City forecasters are right, after all, even slow growth is better than no growth - just.
