If only there was such a thing as a news crystal ball through which we could foresee the events and trends of the coming year.
Arguably the next best thing is the Economist's the World in ..., an annual attempt to predict the political and economic shape of the coming year. News junkies have been known to rejoice at finding it in their Christmas stocking.
But prediction is a tricky business. The Economist doesn't always get things right – indeed, it has occasionally got things spectacularly wrong. Past gaffes include failing to predict the fall of Communist rule in eastern Europe in 1989, dismissing China's gathering economic might by describing it as the world's leading exporter of canned mushrooms in 1991, and predicting an Islamic Reformation in the Middle East in 2000.
So what are Economist contributors prophesying for 2006?
Striking the keynotes in the introduction, the editor, Daniel Franklin, says 2006 will be a year of "living dangerously", when US soldiers will struggle to prevent civil war in Iraq and nuclear brinksmanship with Iran will intensify.
He says the global economy will slow, "perhaps sharply". Well, any of us could have predicted that.
Clearly it is not the Economist's style to make many outlandish guesses about the future, but here is a selection of some of its most interesting - albeit conservative - forecasts for the coming year:
· Half the world's population will become urban as, for the first time, half the human race chooses to live in cities or towns rather than rural areas.
· "Raising [UK] taxes in 2006 would be crazy but [chancellor] Gordon Brown may nevertheless do it - supposedly to meet his fiscal rules, but in reality to avert large future spending cuts".
· If the Middle East peace process falters, there could be a third Palestinian intifada, or Palestinians could show they can run their own state after taking control of the Gaza Strip last summer.
· There will be at least two Bush appointees in the US supreme court, and the Economist says this will alter its balance, "making it more likely to allow states to restrict abortion, though probably not ban it".
· Fidel Castro turns 80 in August, and the Economist says this will be an excuse for a big party. In almost the next breath, it speculates that, should he die this year, there may not be fast-paced change.
· Trade tensions will colour perceptions of the rise of China as a military power.
Can you do better than the Economist at pinpointing the key changes ahead this year? Add your own predictions for 2006 - for the world, your country or your postcode - below.
