Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) two most-watched cycle indicators suggest a make-or-break moment is near — either history repeats with a powerful upside move, or the halving-cycle theory breaks for the first time.
What Happened: In his latest Patreon update, prominent analyst Kevin highlighted that Bitcoin's Hash Ribbons Indicator on the weekly timeframe has flashed its third buy signal in 119 days.
Historically, BTC always moves higher after these signals, though about half the time it first corrects for 1–4 weeks.
Crucially, Bitcoin has never taken longer than six weeks to bottom after such signals, nor longer than nine weeks to move higher.
With BTC now in week seven, the bottom should already be in, suggesting an upside move could be imminent if history rhymes.
The ROI After Halving Chart also shows Bitcoin remains in line with prior cycles.
In both the last two halvings, BTC began an aggressive push higher at this stage toward the eventual cycle top.
If BTC fails to follow through in the coming weeks, it could be the first real break in cycle theory — shifting focus to macro-driven factors like Fed policy and inflation.
Why It Matters: Together, the indicators point to a binary outcome: either Bitcoin soon confirms its next leg up in line with historical post-halving cycles, or this cycle deviates completely, reshaping how traders model Bitcoin's trajectory.
Kevin emphasized that while most cycle-top indicators are not yet flashing, Bitcoin is operating under one of the tightest monetary environments in history, making this setup more complex. If macro conditions ease — weaker labor data, softer inflation, eventual Fed cuts — he expects altcoins with strong fundamentals to outperform into year-end.
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