The first big primaries of the year begin next week. And it will start with a bang when Texas and North Carolina have their contests.
Much of the attention has been on the marquee Senate races, and for good reason. Texas’ ugly Republican primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton has Democrats thinking they can flip a seat, creating a contentious primary between James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
In North Carolina, Donald Trump’s feud with Republican Sen. Thom Tillis drove Tillis into retirement and polling shows the state’s former Democratic governor Roy Cooper has a real shot to win.
But what’s happening down ballot in House races is perhaps just as important for the future of the Democratic Party as it may dictate not just whether Democrats win a House majority, but what kind of House majority. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, one factor has remained constant: Democratic voters hate the leaders of their party.
This has made some voters willing to take a risk and vote for more left-wing candidates in safe seats. Look no further than New York City’s Zohran Mamdani. Then, this month, in the primary for the special election to fill Mikie Sherrill’s old seat in New Jersey’s 11th district, progressive activist Analilia Mejia beat a former congressman and a slate of more establishment candidates.
This all bears striking similarity to when Republicans saw the Tea Party wave that produced a crop of hellraisers in the 2010s who paved the way for Trump. Here’s our slate of races that might show whether Democratic voters are mad enough to make a change.
North Carolina’s 4th District: The Old Democratic Party vs the New Coalition
North Carolina’s 4th district includes two key staples of the Democratic Party. It has an almost 20 percent Black population located in places like Durham. But it’s also the home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Duke University.
In 2022, former state legislator Valerie Foushee beat Nida Allam, a Durham County commissioner. Allam has criticized Foushee for receiving money from the American Israel Public Affairs. According to OpenSecrets, Foushee received $419,455 from AIPAC altogether in 2022 in that race.
Given the war in Gaza, Allam has criticized Foushee receiving the money. Foushee has said she would no longer accept money from AIPAC. Allam by contrast has received the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders. But given the growing dissatisfaction, it will pit the more traditional coalition within the party with a more insurgent progressive base.
Texas’s 15th District: Who can win back Latinos
Perhaps the most disorienting trend for Democrats in 2024 came when Trump flipped the ancestrally Democratic, majority Hispanic Rio Grande Valley in Texas.
Republicans sought to consolidate this through its mid-decade redistricting last year. But the growing backlash to Trump’s immigration policy has made Republicans nervous, especially in the 15th district.
Currently, Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz represents it. Establishment Democrats feel that Bobby Pulido, a former Tejano star and Latin Grammy-winning singer, can flip the seat blue again.
This border district is historically more open to voting for conservative Democrats. But progressive physician Ada Cuellar has criticized Pulido for being too soft on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and not sufficiently supportive of abortion rights. There’s another wrinkle here: Talarico has been campaigning with Pulido.
Illinois 9th District
On March 17th, Illinois 9th district, which is located in the Chicago suburbs, will hold its primary. It quickly emerged as a flashpoint when Kat Abughazaleh, a progressive streamer, journalist and activist who previously lived in Washington, DC, announced she would challenge the district’s longtime Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky.
Schakowsky would eventually announce her retirement and endorse Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss. Both Biss, who is Jewish, and Abughazaleh have criticized Israel’s war in Gaza, though Abughazaleh has criticized Biss for not calling it a genocide.
Polling shows Biss with a healthy lead and Schakowsky, as well as much of the Democratic establishment in the state, have endorsed Biss. But he has also criticized AIPAC for getting behind another state Sen. Laura Fine, which might cut into his lead.
New York 10th District
On June 23, New York will have its congressional primaries and in many ways, it’s a carryover from the contentious New York City mayoral primary last year.
Rep. Dan Goldman won New York’s 10th district in 2022 thanks to a split field among progressives. He earned liberal plaudits when he served as a lead counsel during Trump’s first impeachment. But his support for Israel and his refusal to support Zohran Mamdani after he became the Democratic nominee for mayor hurt him with the left.
Former comptroller Brad Lander, a favorite among progressives, announced he would challenge Goldman and, after dropping out of the New York mayoral primary to throw his support to Mamdani in a coalition effort, he has the mayor’s support locked up.
Goldman’s visibility as a member of the House Oversight Committee and outspoken criticism of Trump might insulate him. But Lander’s high visibility and willingness to get arrested amid Trump’s crackdown on immigrants also puts him in stark relief.
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