In 2024, five incumbent Republican members of Congress signficantly underperformed President Donald Trump in their districts. Now, as Trump’s approval rating plummets, Democrats see an opening to win these seats in their quest to win back the House of Representatives.
Republicans have only 217 seats to the Democrats’ 213 due to deaths and resignations. This means Democrats need to win five seats to get the magic number of 218 next cycle. Understandably, they will target seats with Republicans in them now, but in districts where voters went for Kamala Harris.
But they might actually get more bang for their political buck from seats where Trump won, but a Republican underperformed.
And as Trump’s approval rating continues to nosedive, that puts Republicans, even those in ostensibly “safe” seats, in even more peril. If anything, sometimes Republicans in these types of seats can take their partisan lean for granted and underperform the president.
Here are some seats that might be at risk. For metrics, The Independent is using the Cook Political Report’s House Race ratings and Split Ticket’s Wins Above Replacement rating.
Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.)
Rep. Chuck Edwards keeps a relatively low profile by design: Republicans intentionally backed his primary challenge to Madison Cawthorn in 2022 to make sure he would not embarrass the state the way the former congressman did.
But Edwards, who represents the Western North Carolina, including college town Asheville, has come under fire at town halls in his district. While Trump won the district by 13.5 points in 2024, Edwards only won it by 9.6 points. And surprisingly, it trended slightly to the left, likely triggered by Hurricane Helene.
Democrat Jamie Ager is running against Edwards and if Trump’s approval remains weak, he might just steal this one.
On top of that, North Carolina will have a marquee Senate race as former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is leading in every poll against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Cooper’s strength might also be enough to drag Ager over the finish line.
Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisc.)
If Edwards’ problem is that he is anonymous, Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin has the exact opposite problem.
He landed in numerous controversies, such as when he verbally berated Senate pages for taking photos under the Capitol Rotunda. When he was asked about whether Congress just followed Trump’s marching orders during the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” vote, he said, “We’re not a bunch of little b****es around here, OK?” only for him to fold and vote for the bill.
When someone tweeted, “17 million people just lost health care. 18 million kids just lost school meals. 3 million Americans just lost food assistance,” Van Orden responded by tweeting back, “YES!”
All of this has made him uniquely vulnerable. Wisconsin’s 3rd is the classic type of district that voted for Democrats and then broke for Trump. But where Trump won the Western Wisconsin district by 7.5 percent, Van Orden only barely beat waitress Rebecca Cooke by 2.7 points. Cooke is taking another bite at the apple in 2026. She’s been endorsed by the Blue Dogs, the moderate faction in the House, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, the socialist senator from Vermont.
Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.)
What is there to say about Cory Mills? The two-term Republican congressman from Florida won a seat that was gerrymandered for the GOP in 2022. He was awarded a Bronze Star for heroism in Iraq, but his fellow servicemembers say he did not save their lives. A judge also hit him with a restraining order for continuing to message her for reasons of “protection against dating violence.”
He also faces a House Ethics Committee investigation looking into whether he violated campaign finance laws, misused congressional resources and engaged in dating violence.
He only underperformed Trump by about half a point. But his numerous scandals mean that whichever Democrat wins the primary will have plenty of material to hammer him on.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.)
You didn’t think Florida was going to get off with only one vulnerable member, right?
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is an unconventional lawmaker who can work with Democrats such as when she collaborated with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on legislation to ban members of Congress and their spouses from trading stocks or when she quit the House Freedom Caucus after she tried to allow members who are new parents to proxy vote.
But she’s also courted controversy, such as when she invited a Russian delegation to the Capitol and when she joined a group of conservatives who blocked Kevin McCarthy’s nomination to the speakership, before she ultimately relented.
While Trump won the Pinellas County seat by 12 points in 2024, she only won it by about 9.7 points. Given the latest Economist/YouGov poll shows Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6 points, she could easily get swept up in her race against retired Brigadier General Leela Gray.
Rep. Scott Perry (R-Penn.)
Scott Perry is one of the original Tea Party hellraisers. A former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, Perry played a major role in Trump’s attempts to stay in power after the 2020 presidential election.
Perry said that the FBI seized his phone after the agency raided Mar-a-Lago in 2022. During the 2022 House Select Committee investigation into the January 6 riot, now-former Rep. Liz Cheney said that Perry reportedly contacted the White House seeking a pardon.
The problem for Perry? He behaves like someone who represents a district that votes red by double digits. But Trump only won his seat by 5.3 points and he only beat his Democratic opponent, former news anchor Janelle Stelson, by 1.3 percent.
If Perry isn’t careful, he could easily be on the chopping block, specifically because popular Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro won his district in 2022. Now that Shapiro is trying to run up the scoreboard in his re-election before a potential presidential run, he could create a coattail effect for Stelson.
Judge pauses construction of Trump’s beloved White House ballroom
David Dimbleby labels the King’s US visit ‘an embarrassment’
Army suspends helicopter crew that did suspicious flyby at Kid Rock’s house
Trump DHS unlawfully stripped status of asylum seekers who used Biden-era app: judge
Pentagon looking at using anti-drone lasers to protect Hegseth and Rubio: report
US issues new warning for Americans abroad as Iran threatens 18 companies
