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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Theresa May proposes two-year 'period of implementation' after UK leaves EU - as it happened

Afternoon summary

  • Theresa May has asked EU countries to agree to a two-year Brexit transition during which the UK would continue to enjoy unfettered access to the single market.

Here is Jon Henley’s assessment of the key points from the speech.

And here are verdicts on the speech from a Guardian panel: Gina Miller, Owen Jones,John Redwood, Anne Perkins, and Kate Maltby.

That’s all from me for today.

Here is Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, on the speech.

Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman, has posted his response to the speech on Facebook. He says the UK is becoming “more realistic”.

Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, has described Theresa May’s speech as welcome but not a “game changer” and not enough to ensure that the Brexit talks move on to phase two, covering the future trade relationship, in October. According to the FT he said:

Rather than nitpicking or being unnecessarily critical I think it’s important to accept this as a genuine gesture, an attempt to break the deadlock.

I don’t think it’s a game changer but I do give it a guarded welcome and I think it is a step in the right direction and very welcome in that sense. But I don’t think it’s enough to say at this stage that it allows us to move on to the next phase of negotiations.

Here is Steve Crowther, the interim Ukip leader, on May’s speech.

It was hard to see what in Mrs May’s speech would conceivably move the EU’s position. Ernest entreaty and good faith is not a negotiating position, especially with the EU, when they are bent on an inflexible stance and a disadvantageous outcome to teach everyone a lesson.

Oddly, she spent time setting up the vital importance of the UK’s co-operation to EU security, then said that our participation was “unconditional”. The latter is laudable, but cancels out the former, which is potentially a basis for getting the “flexibility, ambition and creativity” she expects from the EU.

Overall, the whole speech could be paraphrased as “Oh come on, guys. Can’t we just do this nicely?” Time our side started negotiating properly. No further talks until Barnier and the EU start talking properly, drop the ransom demand and start talking about sensible trade relations.

Updated

Here is a verdict on the speech from James Blitz, who writes the Financial Times Brexit Briefing email. He says:

This was a determined effort to break the logjam in the talks. It is too soon to say whether Mrs May will have convinced the EU to move to phase two in a little over a month’s time.

But it is clear that the cabinet is yet to have the critical conversation on Britain’s long-term future after Brexit. Mrs May comes across as someone trying to break down the door to phase two of the negotiations, but is not sure what to say when she gets to the other side.

Updated

Here is the Guardian’s editorial about the speech.

And here is an extract.

The prime minister has belatedly come to understand that the hard Brexit path she signalled in her party conference speech last year cannot be achieved in the time allowed under article 50. Although she daren’t quite admit it, talk of walking away without any deal has been exposed as a reckless, empty threat. That bluff has been called. But the ultimate shape of Britain’s trading relations with the EU remains, in the prime minister’s exposition, vague and utopian – a retention of membership benefits without membership. In time, reality will bite into that proposition as deeply as it has bitten chunks out of the fantasy of an easy, clean break in March 2019. Mrs May took important steps towards a sober appraisal of Brexit’s difficulties today. She has further yet to travel.

Campaigners for EU citizens’ rights have said they are “upset” and “disappointed” with Theresa May’s speech.

They welcomed her promise to put the future agreement on their rights into the withdrawal agreement but said it was “too vague” to give them comfort.

“People want to be re-assured that everything they have now, they will continue to have. They won’t be any more re-assured after today,” said Nicolas Hatton, co-founder of the3million campaign group in the UK.

EU citizens have been asking the government to abandon their plan to put them in a new immigration category of “settled status” post Brexit because they fear this will mean a reduction in their current rights and give the Home Office, which they say they do not trust, a say in their future.

They instead want the government to match the EU offer to roll over all the employment and social rights they have now.

In Spain there was dismay over the prime minister’s remarks about the UK’s position in Europe. Sue Wilson, chair of Bremain in Spain, one of the grassroots organisations campaign for Britons in the country, said:

May said that the UK had never entirely felt at home in the EU. Many of us feel prouder of being European than British, thanks to Brexit.

If May’s intention was to facilitate progress in the negotiations, I fear she will be disappointed. As per usual, we have more soundbites than substance. Again, she appears intent on talking about future arrangements rather than concentrating on separation priorities. I can’t believe anything she said today would persuade the EU27 that sufficient progress has been made to move forward.

Updated

Corbyn says May does not know what sort of Brexit she wants

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has accused Theresa May of not knowing what type of Brexit she wants. In a statement he said:

Fifteen months after the EU referendum the government is still no clearer about what our long-term relationship with the EU will look like.

The only advance seems to be that the prime minister has listened to Labour and faced up to the reality that Britain needs a transition on the same basic terms to provide stability for businesses and workers.

That’s because Theresa May and her Conservative cabinet colleagues are spending more time negotiating with each other rather than with the EU.

The Tories have made clear they want to use Brexit to deregulate and cut taxes for the wealthy. Labour wants a jobs-first Brexit that uses powers returned from Brussels to invest and upgrade Britain’s economy.

Updated

Reaction to Theresa May’s speech from senior Brexit campaign supporters was mixed, with some expressing reservations about May’s strategy for a transitional period that will maintain the status quo.

Owen Paterson, a Tory MP and former cabinet minister, told the Guardian:

The speech was very good really, generous in tone and content. It was good to repeat we’re going to leave on March 29, 2019, and generous comments on rights of EU citizens with right of abode here.

But my main quibble is the transition period as it puts off the time when we can really take advantage of having left. The whole establishment mantra is that business wants to ease in and put off the evil day and it’s all going to be very difficult. That is absolute tosh. The businesses I talk to want to leave and if the EU doesn’t show it’s serious about agreeing some sort of reciprocal free trade deal, that should be easy to achieve on the basis of conformity of standards, then we should say no deal is better than a bad deal, which the PM confirmed. There is no need for a transition period if you agree the destination and just get on with it.

However, John Redwood, a Tory former cabinet minister and leading Eurosceptic, told the guardian that the speech put the UK in a strong position in the talks. He said:

[May] went out of her way to love-bomb the EU, expressing her enthusiastic wish for a bold and wide-ranging future partnership between an independent UK and an EU which needs to get on with its own agenda of economic, monetary and political union, freed of the UK seeking to slow or restrain those moves.

Here is Hilary Benn, the Labour chairman of the Commons Brexit committee, on the speech.

It has taken the government a very long time to accept the reality that the UK will need transitional arrangements as we leave the EU. So, the prime minister’s announcement that the government wants to stay bound by EU rules for “around” two years after March 2019, that it will offer a financial settlement to honour our obligations, and that EU citizens will still be able to come to the UK although they will have to register, does represent a small step forward. However, it remains to be seen whether these proposals will be enough to unblock the talks, especially since it is no clearer how the government proposes to avoid the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

More worryingly, we still don’t know what will come after the transition. Mrs May ruled out both the Norwegian and Canadian options in favour of a “bespoke” deal. Yesterday, Mr Barnier made clear that no such option is on the table as far as the EU is concerned. How does the prime minister plan to achieve such a deal when her speech did not provide the detail or certainty that British business desperately needs so it can plan ahead?

Updated

The shipping industry has said a two-year transition phase is not long enough and it is not confident new customs arrangements can be implemented. Guy Platten, chief executive of the UK Chamber of Shipping, said:

Setting a two-year limit to this transition phase carries significant risk and I am doubtful it will be long enough.

There is no way of knowing how long a transition period should be without knowing the exact regime we will be transitioning towards.

The UK government’s desire to see a bilateral, bespoke customs arrangement, to ensure trade can flow with as little friction as possible, is a sensible one.

But before we can prepare for this new arrangement we need to know exactly what it is and then allow significant time to transition towards it.

Updated

Here is Mike Russell, the Scottish government’s Brexit minister, on Theresa May’s speech.

While the prime minister’s speech was short on detail, her acceptance of a transition period within the single market, with freedom of movement, shows that the UK government has changed its position.

That is due to the growing consensus of opinion – including leading business voices – that leaving the world’s biggest single market is potentially disastrous for jobs, investment and living standards.

But having moved this far, the prime minister should now go further and, as we have called for, commit to a long-term future in the single market and customs union, not just as a transition arrangement.

Here is more reaction to the speech from Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader.

Barnier says May's request for transition 'could be taken into account' in cautious response

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has given a highly qualified welcome to Theresa May’s speech. Mostly his response is non-committal and his full statement reads like a bit like a teacher’s report. Roughly he has graded the speech B-; “could do better”.

Barnier welcomes May’s “constructive” tone and says May indicated “a willingness to move forward”. But he does not describe any announcement as offering a clear breakthrough.

The current round of talks is focusing on three issues: the rights of EU nationals, Ireland and money. On Ireland, Barnier says May has not clarified how the UK’s plan to keep the border with the Republic open would work. He is a bit more positive about her language on the rights of EU nationals (“a step forward”), and he reserves judgment on the money issue.

The United Kingdom recognises that no member state will have to pay more or receive less because of Brexit. We stand ready to discuss the concrete implications of this pledge. We shall assess, on the basis of the commitments taken by the 28 member states, whether this assurance covers all commitments made by the United Kingdom as a member state of the European Union.

May’s speech was at its most specific on the subject of the transition. But Barnier effectively rebukes the UK for not raising this earlier. And all he will say is that the request “could be taken into account”.

Michel Barnier.
Michel Barnier. Photograph: Francois Lenoir/Reuters

Updated

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has welcomed Theresa May’s speech as “constructive”. He has tweeted a link to a longer statement about it.

Theresa May's Florence speech – summary and analysis

Here are the key points from Theresa May’s Florence speech

  • May said she wanted a transition period that would see the UK accepting EU rules for two years after Brexit.

Clearly people, businesses and public services should only have to plan for one set of changes in the relationship between the UK and the EU. So during the implementation period access to one another’s markets should continue on current terms and Britain also should continue to take part in existing security measures. And I know businesses, in particular, would welcome the certainty this would provide.

The framework for this strictly time-limited period, which can be agreed under article 50, would be the existing structure of EU rules and regulations.

How long the period is should be determined simply by how long it will take to prepare and implement the new processes and new systems that will underpin that future partnership.

For example, it will take time to put in place the new immigration system required to retake control of the UK’s borders. So during the implementation period, people will continue to be able to come and live and work in the UK; but there will be a registration system – an essential preparation for the new regime.

As of today, these considerations point to an implementation period of around two years.

This sounds like a big concession. But most people in business and government have always thought a transition period would be essential, and the European council’s negotiating guidelines (pdf) are very explicit about how the UK should only get access to the single market during a transition period if it accepts EU rules. So this concession was probably inevitable.

  • She said the UK would continue to pay into the EU budget until 2020, when the current EU budget ends. And she said further payments could be made beyond that.

I am conscious that our departure causes another type of uncertainty for the remaining member states and their taxpayers over the EU budget.

Some of the claims made on this issue are exaggerated and unhelpful and we can only resolve this as part of the settlement of all the issues I have been talking about today.

Still I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave. The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership.

And as we move forwards, we will also want to continue working together in ways that promote the long-term economic development of our continent. This includes continuing to take part in those specific policies and programmes which are greatly to the UK and the EU’s joint advantage, such as those that promote science, education and culture – and those that promote our mutual security. And as I set out in my speech at Lancaster House, in doing so, we would want to make an ongoing contribution to cover our fair share of the costs involved.

This may be the most significant passage of the speech. It has been estimated that paying into the EU budget until the current budgetary period ends in 2020 would cost the UK around €20bn. But the total figure the EU is said to be demanding is much higher – €60bn according to this estimate, between €82bn and €113bn according to this estimate, between €25.4bn and €65.1bn according to this estimate – and May is hinting that the UK will pay for obligations stretching beyond 2020. The EU wants the UK to contribute to long-term spending commitments agreed by the EU but not covered in the current budget, and this is what May seemed to be referring to when she spoke of the UK and the EU “working together in ways that promote the long-term economic development of our continent”. On top of that, as May has said before, the UK would continue to pay for access to specific programmes such as Erasmus.

  • May said the UK was “unconditionally committed to maintaining Europe’s security” and that she wanted to offer the EU a comprehensive security treaty.

The United Kingdom has outstanding capabilities. We have the biggest defence budget in Europe, and one of the largest development budgets in the world. We have a far-reaching diplomatic network, and world-class security, intelligence and law enforcement services.

So what we are offering will be unprecedented in its breadth, taking in co-operation on diplomacy, defence and security, and development. And it will be unprecedented in its depth, in terms of the degree of engagement that we would aim to deliver.

It is our ambition to work as closely as possible together with the EU, protecting our people, promoting our values and ensuring the future security of our continent.

The United Kingdom is unconditionally committed to maintaining Europe’s security. And the UK will continue to offer aid and assistance to EU member states that are the victims of armed aggression, terrorism and natural or manmade disasters.

This declaration quashes the impression given earlier this year by May’s article 50 letter that Britain was threatening to withhold security cooperation if it did not get a good trade deal. At the time No 10 insisted this was a misunderstanding of what was in the letter, but the notion that Britain could use security as a bargaining chip has persisted. Nick Timothy, May’s former co chief of staff, seemed to propose this in a recent Sun column.

  • May said she wanted a “creative” approach to forming a new UK-EU trade relationship, and that neither Canada nor Norway were attractive models.

One way of approaching this question is to put forward a stark and unimaginative choice between two models: either something based on European economic area membership; or a traditional free-trade agreement, such as that the EU has recently negotiated with Canada.

I don’t believe either of these options would be best for the UK or best for the European Union.

European economic area membership would mean the UK having to adopt at home – automatically and in their entirety – new EU rules. Rules over which, in future, we will have little influence and no vote.

Such a loss of democratic control could not work for the British people. I fear it would inevitably lead to friction and then a damaging re-opening of the nature of our relationship in the near future: the very last thing that anyone on either side of the Channel wants.

As for a Canadian-style free-trade agreement, we should recognise that this is the most advanced free-trade agreement the EU has yet concluded and a breakthrough in trade between Canada and the EU. But compared with what exists between Britain and the EU today, it would nevertheless represent such a restriction on our mutual market access that it would benefit neither of our economies.

Not only that, it would start from the false premise that there is no pre-existing regulatory relationship between us. And precedent suggests that it could take years to negotiate. We can do so much better than this.

As I said at Lancaster House, let us not seek merely to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries. Instead let us be creative as well as practical in designing an ambitious economic partnership which respects the freedoms and principles of the EU, and the wishes of the British people.

May is being optimistic. Yesterday Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, explicitly rejected the idea that some optimal halfway house between the Norway and Canada options would be available to the UK.

  • She said she would not accept the European court of justice being the arbiter of trade disputes between the UK and the EU after Brexit. And it could not be the UK courts either, she said. But she said she was confident both sides could find “an appropriate mechanism for resolving disputes”.
  • She said UK courts would take into account European court of justice rulings when making decisions about the rights of EU nationals. She said she hoped this would enable the UK and the EU to reach an agreement on this issue. She said:

I want to repeat to the 600,000 Italians in the UK – and indeed to all EU citizens who have made their lives in our country – that we want you to stay; we value you; and we thank you for your contribution to our national life – and it has been, and remains, one of my first goals in this negotiation to ensure that you can carry on living your lives as before.

I am clear that the guarantee I am giving on your rights is real. And I doubt anyone with real experience of the UK would doubt the independence of our courts or of the rigour with which they will uphold people’s legal rights.

But I know there are concerns that over time the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens overseas will diverge. I want to incorporate our agreement fully into UK law and make sure the UK courts can refer directly to it.

Where there is uncertainty around underlying EU law, I want the UK courts to be able to take into account the judgments of the European court of justice with a view to ensuring consistent interpretation. On this basis, I hope our teams can reach firm agreement quickly.

Updated

British Chambers of Commerce says transition should last at least three years

Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, praised the “constructive” tone of Theresa May’s speech. But he said the transition period should last for at least three years, not the two years promised by May. He said:

We will challenge both the UK government and the European commission over the coming months to agree a transition that lasts at least three years from the date of our formal exit from the EU, giving businesses enough time to prepare for a final deal.

Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European people’s party in the European parliament and a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said the UK position was still unclear. He posted this on Twitter.

Updated

This is from Jenny Chapman, a shadow Brexit minister.

We are 18 months in. The speech she gave today had one hell of a buildup and it was very, very weak, disappointing, empty, and clearly leaves so many questions unanswered, and I think many people will be scratching their heads and wondering what on earth the fuss has been about with this speech.

Beyond committing to transition, which frankly everybody knew was an inevitability, there really wasn’t very much to it.

Updated

Here is the Lib Dem leader, Sir Vince Cable, on the speech.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have now essentially converged on the same position, which is to kick the can down the road and simply delay the economic pain caused by an extreme Brexit.

Neither are prepared to fight to keep Britain in the single market and customs union or to offer people a chance to exit from Brexit.

Updated

Labour’s Ben Bradshaw has told BBC News that Theresa May has adopted Labour’s position on a Brexit transition. Labour wants to keep the UK in the single market and the customs union during the transition.

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, has told Sky News that May’s announcement means the UK will not be signing any trade deals until 2022. It means Britain is not open for business, he says.

The two cabinet ministers who effectively led the Vote Leave campaign have welcomed the speech.

From Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary

From Michael Gove, the environment secretary

Theresa May's speech - Snap verdict

Today’s Evening Standard claimed in advance that Theresa May’s speech would amount to a victory for the cabinet’s “soft” Brexit faction over its “hard” Brexit faction. (See 1.48pm.) But that’s a partial reading of what is actually happening. On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories regarding the transition period. But in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transition to a fairly hard Brexit.

At least, as far as we can tell. The section of May’s speech dealing with what she wants the final UK-EU trade relationship to be was the weakest. She spoke about the need to be “creative”, but that sounded like a clever way of disguising the fact that the cabinet still has no clear view of where it is heading – beyond the fact that it will be outside the single market and the customs union. The new Tory MP Kirstene Hair has been mocked today for admitting that she could not decide how to vote in the EU referendum (see 11.49am), but in some EU-related aspects, her indecision is a trait she shares with her party leader.

On the transition, however, May was specific. The UK will continue to pay into the EU budget, and it will continue to be bound by EU rules. It was telling that May refused to answer the question about whether this would amount to continued EEA (European economic area) membership, or whether this would involve having to obey new EU regulations passed by the EU27 during that period. Further briefing this afternoon from No 10 may clarify the position, but from what May said it sounded very much as if the answer to both questions is yes. The government has always insisted that in March 2019 we will leave the single market and the customs union. After May’s speech that now sounds like a semantic evasion. Judging by what the prime minister said, it sounds as if we are staying in until March 2021.

Updated

This, from my colleague Patrick Wintour, explains what Theresa May really meant when she answered the penultimate question.

Q: [From a German journalist] What do you expect from Brussels?

May says she hopes Brussels will see that she is proposing a strong future partnership. She hopes people will respond in a tone of friendship.

The remaining 27 will consider what they want for themselves.

This is a proposal for how they go forward together, she says.

And that’s it.

I will post a snap verdict and a summary shortly, and of course I will be bringing you reaction and analysis as it comes in.

Updated

Q: During the implementation period would the UK be subject to new EU laws, even though it would not have a say? And would the UK pay for access to the single market?

May says during the implementation period the current rules would apply. The details would have to be part of the negotiation, she says.

She says the EU withdrawal bill actually brings EU law into UK law.

Updated

Q: You say you are unconditionally committed to European security. That means you will cooperate, with or without a deal. What do you say to people who say you have thrown away your best card?

May says people want the UK to continue a partnership with the EU that keeps people safe.

Updated

Q: What do you say to those people who think we should have left already, and stopped paying the EU? They have a right to feel pissed off, don’t they?

May says the UK is leaving. But it needs to leave in a smooth and orderly way.

We will leave the EU on 29 March 2019, she says.

Updated

Q: You have ruled out things in this negotiation only to have to concede them. Can you point to any areas where you have won concessions?

May says there are UK demands that have been agreed by Europe.

This is a negotiation, she says.

She says this is an opportunity for both sides to agree a new partnership.

This could provide a great future for both sides, she says.

Updated

Q: Do you rule out being a member of the EEA during the transition?

Q: You sounded closer to the Norway option than the Canada option?

May tells Sky News’s political editor, Faisal Islam, who asked the question, that he should stop thinking in terms of Norway and Canada. She is proposing something different.

Let’s think creatively, she says.

(She does not directly answer the EEA question.)

Updated

Q: What do you say to leave voters who will be cross about nothing much changing for up to five years?

She says people voted to leave the EU. She has set out how an implementation period would operate.

During that period, EU people coming to work in the UK would have to register.

Q: Is no deal still better than a bad deal?

Yes, says May. But she says she has set out how both sides can obtain a good deal.

Updated

May's Q&A

May is now taking questions.

The first comes from an Italian journalist.

Q: What will change for the 600,000 Italians in the UK?

May says she wants EU citizens to be able to stay, with the same rights as they have now. She says both sides are “very close” to an agreement. She hopes that her assurance today on legal guarantees (see 2.42pm) will help.

She has a lot of Italians in her constituency, she says.

Updated

May says the way for both sides to proceed is to follow the approach she has set out today.

She says it is beholden on all of those involved to get there.

The negotiations will be difficult. But if they approach them in the right way, respectful and pragmatic, it can work for both sides.

May says she recognises this is not what the EU wanted. But they have to get on with it.

If they get the spirit of this partnership and negotiation right, they can make this vision happen.

And that’s it.

Updated

May says a new partnership is the prize.

She says she is clear that Britain’s future is bright.

(She is now using a quote pre-briefed about Britain’s “bright” future - see 2.03pm.)

Updated

May says UK would continue to pay into EU budget until 2020

May says she does not want EU nations to lose out as a result of Brexit during the budget period running up to 2020. Britain would honour its obligations.

  • May says UK would continue to pay into EU budget until 2020.

Updated

May says UK should stay bound by EU rules during two-year implementation period

May says people and businesses would benefit from a period to adjust to the new arrangements.

A period of implementation would be in our mutual interest, she says.

People should only have to plan for one set of changes.

  • May says she wants access to EU markets to continue during this period. EU rules would continue to apply, she says.

She says it would remain to be seen how long that would take.

  • May says people from the EU would be able to come to live and work in the UK during that period, but would have to register.
  • She says at the moment she expects this period to last around two years.

May says it would be helpful to agree this “as early as possible”.

And it should include a double lock: a guarantee that there will be an implementation period, and a guarantee that it will be time limited.

Updated

May says this is the vision.

The question is how we get there.

Our relationship with the EU can be developed in new ways, she says.

The UK will cease to be a member of the EU on 29 March 2019. But at that point neither the UK nor the EU will be able to implement the new relationship smoothly.

Updated

May offers EU security treaty, saying UK 'unconditionally committed to maintaining Europe’s security'

May says she wants a new treaty with the EU on security and justice.

What she is offering will be “unprecedented in its depth”, she says.

The United Kingdom is unconditionally committed to maintaining Europe’s security.

May says dispute resolution after Brexit should not be left to ECJ, or to UK courts

May says the UK and the EU will need a strong dispute resolution mechanism. It should not be left to the UK courts or the ECJ.

  • May says dispute resolution after Brexit should not be left to the ECJ, or to the UK courts. An alternative mechanism is needed, she says.

Updated

May’s full quote on the ECJ and the rights of EU nationals is now in the post at 2.42pm. You may need to update the page to get it to show up.

Updated

May says the EU and the UK have a shared commitment to free trade.

She says she wants to avoid friction at the border.

She says her government wants to protect workers’ rights.

May says Norway model and Canada model both unsatisfactory for UK

May says she is not pretending that you can have all the advantages of the single market with none of the disadvantages.

But she wants to find a way of holding them in a new balance, she says.

The question is not how we bring regulations closer. The question is what we do when one side wants to make changes.

She says forcing the UK to choose between an EEA-type model or a Canada-type model would be unimaginative. It would not be the best way to proceed.

She says going for the EEA model [the Norway model] would not work. Eventually there would be objections.

But the Canada option would be a significant restriction on our market access, and that would benefit neither economy.

We can do so much better than this.

She says she wants not a model enjoyed by another country, but a “creative” approach leading to something better.

  • May says the Norway model and Canada model both unsatisfactory for UK.

Updated

May says UK willing to promise that ECJ rulings will be taken into account in UK court decisions affecting EU nationals

May says she wants EU nationals living in the UK to stay. We value you, she says.

She says one of her goals is to guarantee their rights.

The guarantee she is giving is clear, she says.

She says no one would doubt the value of UK courts. But over time there will be divergence between the rights of UK and EU citizens. She wants UK courts to be able to take into account the judgments of the European court of justice in making decisions on these matters.

  • May says UK willing to promise that ECJ rulings will be taken into account in UK court decisions affecting EU nationals.

I’m clear the guarantee I’m giving on your rights is real, and I doubt anyone with real experience of the UK would doubt the independence of our courts or of the rigour with which they will uphold people’s legal rights.

I want to incorporate our agreement fully into UK law and make sure UK courts can refer directly to it.

When there is uncertainty around underlying EU law, I want the UK courts to be able to take into account the judgment in the European court of justice with a view to ensuring consistent interpretation. On this basis, I hope our teams can reach firm agreement quickly.

(This goes further than what the government has said before. It amounts to a concession to the EU.)

Updated

May says her Lancaster House speech in January still stands.

Since then, the UK has published 14 Brexit papers and there have been three rounds of negotiations.

She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area.

And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

Updated

May says the EU and the UK share a profound responsibility to make Brexit work.

(She is using the passage pre-briefed - see 2.03pm.)

Updated

May says success of EU is 'profoundly' in UK's national interest

May says Britain has chosen to leave the EU, but the UK is still “a proud member of the family of European nations”.

She says the success of the EU is “profoundly in our national interest”.

Updated

May says the UK will continue to work with the EU as a sovereign nation, with the British people in control.

That is what the referendum was about.

People want more direct control, she says. They want decisions made in Britain by people who are accountable to them.

That is why the UK has never “entirely felt at home being in the EU”.

The EU never felt “an integral part of our national story”, she says.

Pooling sovereignty can bring great benefits. But it also means countries have to accept decisions they don’t want.

So that is why the UK voted to leave.

Updated

May says mass migration and terrorism are two examples of challenges to our shared European values that we can only solve in partnership.

Climate change, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons by North Korea, are other examples of challenges that must be tackled internationally.

These challenges can only be tacked by like-minded people coming together.

Britain has always and will always stand with its friends and allies in defence of these values, she says.

Britain may be leaving the EU, “but we are not leaving Europe”.

May says Britain will continue to lead in Europe on issues that affect security.

May suggests Brexit may help EU, because UK will not block further integration

May says there is a vibrant debate going on about the shape of the EU.

Britain does not want to stand in the way of that.

We want to be the EU’s “strongest friend and partner”, she says.

  • May suggests Brexit may help the EU, because the UK will not block further integration

Updated

May says the Renaissance showed us that, if we open our minds to new possibilities, we can forge a better future for our peoples.

That is what she wants to focus on today.

The UK is leaving the EU. It wants to be a global, free-trading nation.

For many people this is a worrying time. But she looks forward with optimism.

Updated

Theresa May's speech

Theresa May has arrived.

She says it is good to be in this great city of Florence, at a critical time for the evolution of the relationship between the UK and the EU.

The Renaissance began here. In many ways it defined what it is to be European.

Updated

And here is Nigel Farage on the decor.

And this is from the Independent’s Jon Stone.

This is from the Press Association’s Arj Singh.

The Irish leader, Leo Varadkar, is perhaps the only European head of government to be briefed about Theresa May’s speech ahead of her address in Florence.

The prime minister spoke to the taoiseach earlier today, with a government spokesperson in Dublin stating that May had been “keen to brief him” before her speech.

The prime minister’s “sneak preview” for Varadkar indicates the UK government’s cautious approach towards the Republic of Ireland and the desire not to destabilise relations between Dublin and London, which have been the key axis on which peace agreements and Anglo-Irish cooperation are based.

Updated

Nor is the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

ITV’s Carl Dinnen isn’t impressed by the backdrop.

This is from my colleague Anushka Asthana.

This is from the Telegraph’s Jack Maidment.

This is from the Evening Standard’s Joe Murphy.

Here is Theresa May in the back of her Maserati for the speech. She is with David Davis, the Brexit secretary.

Theresa May and David Davis arrive in Florence ahead of May’s speech.
Theresa May and David Davis arrive in Florence ahead of May’s speech. Photograph: Max Rossi/Reuters

Theresa May's speech - Advance extracts

Downing Street released four paragraphs from Theresa May’s speech overnight.

The key one was about the UK and the EU having a joint responsibility to reach a deal.

While the UK’s departure from the EU is inevitably a difficult process, it is in all of our interests for our negotiations to succeed … so I believe we share a profound sense of responsibility to make this change work smoothly and sensibly, not just for people today but for the next generation who will inherit the world we leave them.

(This is a slightly risky argument; EU leaders could quite legitimately say that they did not ask the UK to leave.)

She will say that both sides should be “imaginative and creative” about finding a solution.

The eyes of the world are on us but if we can be imaginative and creative about the way we establish this new relationship … I believe we can be optimistic about the future we can build for the United Kingdom and for the European Union.

But both sides could create a positive new partnership, she will say.

If we can do that [get a successful final agreement], then when this chapter of our European history is written, it will be remembered not for the differences we faced, but for the vision we showed; not for the challenges we endured but for the creativity we used to overcome them; not for a relationship that ended but a new partnership that began.

And she will say Britain’s future “is bright”.

Our fundamental strengths are considerable; a legal system respected around the world; a keen openness to foreign investment; and enthusiasm for innovation; an ease of doing business; some of the best universities and researchers you can find anywhere; an exceptional national talent for creativity and an indomitable spirit.

Updated

Theresa May arrives in Florence

Theresa May has arrived in Florence. This is from Sky’s Mark Stone.

The Evening Standard, which under its relatively new editor, the former Conservative chancellor George Osborne, has become a fierce opponent of Theresa May and “hard” Brexit, claims May’s speech represents a partial victory for cabinet “sensibles” (the “soft” Brexiteers like Philip Hammond) over the “creationists” (the “hard” Brexiteers like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove). Here’s an extract from today’s editorial.

Gone is the claim still made by ministers that in 2019 we are leaving the single market and customs union. Whatever the semantics, we now seek a transition for at least two years where we in effect remain inside that single market and the customs union.

Gone is the claim that we can tell the EU to “go whistle” when they ask us to pay up. The cabinet has made it known that it will cough up at least £20 billion for the privilege of leaving.

Gone is the assertion that freedom of movement will end when we leave. When this paper pointed out earlier this week that we would have to accept free movement as the condition of a transition, this was described as “completely delusional” by a Downing Street source. Today it is the official position of Downing Street’s occupants.

Updated

In the Politico Europe Brexit Files email briefing David Herszenhorn says EU officials are “perplexed and frustrated” by the slow pace of negotiations and much more interested in what the British team says in the talks, which resume next week, than in what Theresa May says in her speech. He says:

Ahead of the Florence speech, the European Commission made clear that the official reaction would come from Barnier, the dapper French functionary leading the negotiations.

In other words, EU leaders — from Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to Council President Donald Tusk, to national leaders like Angela Merkel of Germany, Emmanuel Macron of France, Paolo Gentiloni of Italy, to Jüri Ratas of Estonia — have no interest in a debate with May about how future generations of Europeans will look back on these times. Nor do they care whether May thinks Britain’s future is bright or dim.

As Barnier said in Rome, what they want is clarity and a swift resolution at the negotiating table. But he was even clearer that what he remains most interested in is not what May says in Florence, but what her negotiating team says in the next round of talks in Brussels next week.

Updated

Dario Nardella, the mayor of Florence, has tweeted a welcome message to Theresa May.

In a longer message on his Facebook page, in Italian and in English, he makes it clear what he thinks about Brexit.

Florence, European city of dialogue and capital of culture, welcomes British prime minister Theresa May, who has chosen the historical heart of Europe for her important speech. An event which confirms the strong and deep cultural ties between the British people and our city. Today, once again, we have the opportunity to proudly affirm our determination to build a more and more united, plural and stronger Europe. The Europe of people and cities. A free Europe able to make the dream of those men and women, who bravely saw our future rising from the ashes of World War II, come true. We cannot betray that dream and its ideals.

Updated

According to Alex Wickham, this is the backdrop for Theresa May’s speech.

It could be the slogan for a remain speech during the EU referendum.

Henry Newman, the director of the Open Europe thinktank, has written a useful blog about Theresa May’s speech arguing that it will show Britain is heading for a “Canada plus”-type trade relationship with the EU. Or “Ceta plus”, as he puts it: Ceta is the comprehensive economic and trade agreement, the EU-Canada free trade deal. Here’s an extract.

But the “Ceta plus” option is a shorthand for a model in which the UK has control over its future regulatory landscape. The key question is whether the UK will have the ability to diverge in regulatory terms from the EU? Will we be able to say no to certain EU directives and regulations, even if we choose to apply others? Or will we essentially be waiting by a ‘fax machine’, obliged broadly to legislate for whatever Brussels comes up with in the future.

On this battle it looks like May is moving in the direction which key Brexit advocates in Cabinet wanted. This afternoon she is expected to note that there will be areas where we share the objectives of the EU in terms of regulations and are happy to continue to adopt their mechanisms to enforce them; but, crucially, that there will be others where we do not share their objectives and so cannot share their mechanisms.

This discussion around our control over future regulations may sound dull and technical but it is in some senses one of the most important issues of all. For if we leave the EU, relinquish our seat at the table, our vote in the Council and our commissioner, only to take every EU rule without a say over shaping them, we would be in a much worse place than we are now. To make a success of Brexit we need to regain sufficient control to determine our own future. That will come with some costs but mean greater opportunities for our future prosperity.

Updated

This is from the FT’s George Parker, who is in Florence.

And Stephen Bush has a good line on the Theresa May speech in his New Statesman morning briefing.

Just as with the forthcoming Taylor Swift album, we’re all hoping that the full record will be better than the pre-released extracts but it doesn’t exactly look like a floor-filler at the moment. It’s long on optimistic paragraphs about the greatness of the United Kingdom and the European Union but short on realism.

In his HuffPost UK daily briefing Paul Waugh suggests having a two-year Brexit transition could have implications for the timing of Theresa May’s own exit. He says:

May’s allies think she has proved she is quietly effective on policy substance (her speech hasn’t changed much at all through the week), while Boris has been loudly ineffective. On the politics, rather than policy, Boris has undoubtedly reminded everyone of his role. But some around May think the two-year transition is also a way of extending her own political lifetime, letting her oversee the process with a handover to a new leader in early 2021. That would allow enough time for her successor to prepare for a general election in 2022, while giving the ‘next generation’ of possible Tory leaders time to build their profile.

UPDATE: Sir Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s former communications chief, thinks the May allies who were speaking to Waugh should not have been so candid.

Updated

Today’s Financial Times splash (paywall) says Theresa May will use her speech to firm up her offer to the EU on the rights of EU nationals. It says:

Brussels has demanded that the 3m EU nationals in the country have direct recourse to the European Court of Justice to ensure the rights they currently have in Britain are safeguarded after Brexit.

But the prime minister’s aides have told European diplomats to expect a proposal to ensure UK courts enforce the rights of EU citizens.

Rather than transpose specific policy provisions of any citizen rights deal into domestic UK law — and run the risk that MPs “dilute” the measures, as EU officials fear — parliament would instead make the relevant terms of the exit treaty directly enforceable in UK courts.

British officials have also told negotiators they are considering whether future ECJ case law should be “taken into account” by British judges where relevant to the citizen rights — another key Brussels demand.

Tory MP admits she did not vote in EU referendum because she could not decide

The Conservative MP Kirstene Hair has admitted she did not vote in the Brexit referendum because the decision was “very difficult”. Hair, who was elected MP for Angus in Scotland in June, told the Courier newspaper:

I didn’t vote on Brexit. I took the decision not to vote on it. It was incredibly difficult. The first time I’ve never voted in my life.

It was very difficult because you get two arguments, very strong on both sides.

I just ultimately couldn’t make that decision and I thought I would therefore go with the will of the UK which if I’m honest I thought we would remain.

But I left that to everyone else.

Here are more pictures of the protest by anti-Brexit expats in Florence ahead of Theresa May’s speech.

A woman holds up a placard ahead of a speech by Theresa May in Florence.
A woman holds up a placard ahead of a speech by Theresa May in Florence. Photograph: Max Rossi/Reuters
A protester in Florence.
A protester in Florence. Photograph: Max Rossi/Reuters
Protesters in Florence.
Protesters in Florence. Photograph: Max Rossi/Reuters
A demonstrator in Florence.
A demonstrator in Florence. Photograph: Max Rossi/Reuters
A couple hold up a placard ahead of the speech by May.
A couple hold up a placard ahead of the speech by May. Photograph: Max Rossi/Reuters
Demonstrators in Florence.
Demonstrators in Florence. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Transport for London announces it is banning Uber from London

I’m focusing on the May speech today, but a very big story has broken in London.

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, has put out this statement about the Transport for London decision.

I want London to be at the forefront of innovation and new technology and to be a natural home for exciting new companies that help Londoners by providing a better and more affordable service.

However, all companies in London must play by the rules and adhere to the high standards we expect - particularly when it comes to the safety of customers. Providing an innovative service must not be at the expense of customer safety and security.

I fully support TfL’s decision - it would be wrong if TfL continued to license Uber if there is any way that this could pose a threat to Londoners’ safety and security.

Any operator of private hire services in London needs to play by the rules.

Peter Foster, the Telegraph’s Europe editor, has a good but very long Twitter thread about Theresa May’s speech. It starts here.

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, is very unhappy about the suggestion that Theresa May wants to keep freedom of movement during the transition. (See 10.08am.) It is “pathetic”, he says.

Farage has changed his tune on the government’s handling of Brexit a lot over the last few months. After May’s Lancaster House speech in January, he welcomed it as “real progress” and said: “I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I’ve been mocked for using for years.”

The Independent today has published a BMG poll suggesting 52% of the public would vote to remain in the EU, and 48% to leave. That’s a two-point increase in the remain vote since BMG polled on this two months ago.

But it is not necessarily a reliable guide to what would happen if there were a second referendum. Shortly before the EU referendum last year a BMG poll also had remain on 52%. Of course, in the event leave won with 52%.

UPDATE: BMG tell me they have changed their methodology since the pre-referendum poll last year.

FURTHER UPDATE: BMG have sent me more details about how the methodology of the poll covered by the Independent differs from its pre-referendum one last year. Here is an extract from their email.

As promised, the three main ways that the poll today differs from the one you refer to are as follows:

1 - The poll you refer to [ie, the pre-referendum one] was conducted by phone; this is our monthly online tracker (our online polling correctly forecasted the outcome in 2016; albeit a little too leave ‘heavy’ 56/44.)

2 - The online poll now has a slightly different weighting scheme to correct for the overestimation of the leave vote (Past EU Vote i.e. how a respondent voted in EU Referendum in 2016.

3 - This methodology has many fewer adjustments than our telephone poll, just one called a ‘squeeze’ question to find out which way the undecided are leaning. These are added in at a factor of 0.5. This approach focuses more on getting a representative sample as possible than making complex adjustments.

Updated

Matthew O’Toole, a former Downing Street communications official who worked there before the referendum, making the case against Brexit, and after, until last month, making the case for it, has written a shrewd assessment of the government’s situation for Politico Europe. He says Theresa May’s problem is that she has not fully explained to the public the choices she is facing.

Here’s an excerpt.

So far, the government has largely declined to explain to the country the choices it must make in agreeing its withdrawal from — and future relationship with — the bloc. It has communicated much of its vision through repetition of tropes and slogans that obscured, rather than revealed, meaning.

Theresa May’s speech in Florence — an “update on negotiations” according to my former Downing Street colleagues — is an overdue opportunity to communicate clearly on the government’s strategy ...

Ministers have ... set out negotiating objectives on other issues, but only vaguely indicated how these will be traded off against one another. Papers have been published, but these have mostly avoided giving a clear hierarchy of needs.

The recent position paper on customs, for example, lists strategic priorities: frictionless trade with the EU; avoiding a hard border in Ireland; and having an independent trade policy.

These goals are not all achievable — or more precisely, they are not all completely achievable. The U.K. will have either to generously interpret their meaning (not unusual for a government) or decide which objectives are more important than others.

Updated

Some pro-EU protesters have already set up in Florence awaiting Theresa May’s arrival, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reports.

Chris Grayling's Today interview - Summary

Chris Grayling’s interview on the Today programme about the prime minister’s speech did not get particularly good reviews on Twitter. Grayling was one of the leading figures in the Vote Leave campaign but even the pro-leave commentator Guido Fawkes wasn’t impressed.

Others, with remain sympathies were even more scathing. This is from the historian Simon Schama.

This is from Bloomberg’s Thomas Penny.

And this is from Peter Geoghegan, the Glasgow-based Irish journalist

Here are the main points from the interview.

  • Grayling claimed that freedom of movement would end in the UK in 2019.

We have been very clear the freedom of movement ends in 2019 ... We have been very clear all the way through that freedom of movement comes to an end when we leave the European Union.

But he also refused to say what immigration arrangements would apply during the transition, saying: “That’s the detail that we will work through in the negotiations.”

The EU has made it clear that, if the UK wants a transition which involves full single market access (which it does), it will have to accept the the free movement of EU nationals into the UK can continue during the transition and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, told a Lords committee recently that the government’s plans for EU citizens to be allowed to come to the UK for a grace period after Brexit did comply with EU free movement rules.

Grayling’s comments suggest that, although Freedom of Movement may end in 2019 (in theory), freedom of movement (in practice) will continue during the transition.

  • Grayling refused to rule out the UK paying more to the EU than the €20bn-odd that Theresa May is expected to put on the table today. Asked if this would be the final amount offered by Britain, he replied:

I can’t anticipate the nature of the nature of the negotiations that are going to happen. What I’ve said is that we are a nation that meets its obligations. There are of course things where we absolutely accept Britain has obligations.

  • He refused to say whether the money was being paid to meet the UK’s obligations, or to obtain access to the single market. Asked specifically about this, he replied: “It is about cementing that future relationship.” The question arises because Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, used his Telegraph article last week to say the UK should not pay for access to the single market.
  • Grayling claimed the UK and the EU were making “good progress” in the Brexit negotiations. He said:

We have made progress already. The headlines wouldn’t necessarily suggest it, but if you were involved in the technical details of the negotiation, they are making good progress on a lot of the issues that have been on the EU’s list at the start.

This is not what Barnier says. Yesterday Barnier said there was still “major uncertainty” in the key issues in the talks.

  • Grayling said it was in the interests of both the UK and the EU to strike a deal.
Chris Grayling.
Chris Grayling. Photograph: BBC

This is what the Press Association has filed about Santa Maria Novella, the church in Florence that is reportedly the venue for Theresa May’s speech.

Theresa May’s crunch speech on Brexit has been billed as Britain’s bid to break open deadlocked exit talks which have so far frustrated both sides.

So the grand, Gothic, Santa Maria Novella church in central Florence appears a fitting venue to attempt to heal divides which appear to have deepened since the beginning of tough negotiations in summer.

Today the square in front of the basilica is a picture of European unity, with tourists and Italians rubbing shoulders over gelato, Peronis and pasta.

And in the mid-15th Century it was the scene of the Council of Florence, gathered to bring about the reunion of the Greek and Latin churches.

It will be in that spirit that May seeks to make the first steps towards a “deep and special partnership” with the European Union despite the schism of Brexit.

Committed Brexiteers like Boris Johnson, who often see themselves as mavericks, may take something from another flashpoint in the church’s history.

It was the venue for one of the first attacks against Galileo, who along with other mathematicians was accused of heresy by Tommaso Caccini in December 1614 for claiming the earth moves around the sun.

The Renaissance man was of course proved right in the end and Leave supporters will hope the prophecies of doom from so-called “Remoaners” similarly fall away once the UK leaves the EU.

The church is also home to a number of notable artworks by Renaissance artists including Botticelli, Masaccio and Giotto.

The Italian city is the birthplace of that movement, widely seen as the cultural catalyst for the beginning of modern European history.

May will hope that Brexit is another chapter which proves as successful.

Politico Europe also has an interesting story about the choice of venue, saying that the May speech represents a departure from protocol because Italian officials have had very little involvement in setting it up.

Theresa May has given two big speeches on Brexit since she became prime minister. The first, to the Conservative party conference in October last year, signalled that she was heading for a “hard” Brexit and crashed the pound. The second, at Lancaster House in January, outlined 12 Brexit negotiating objectives. It confirmed that May was considering a transition period (or “implementation” period, as she called it), but also said that the UK wanted to leave the single market and the customs union while keeping “tariff-free trade” with the EU that would be “as frictionless as possible”. Critics claims that this still amounted to a Johnsonian desire to “have one’s cake and eat it”.

Since then the government has provided very little further clarity about what it wants, either in regard to the transition or to the UK’s ultimate post-Brexit relationship with the EU. Ultimately the UK probably faces a choice between cleaving quite close to the EU, in regulatory terms, or striking out alone. Or “high access, low control” versus “low access, high control”, in Brexit jargon. May has not opted decisively for one or the other.

Today we are getting the third big speech in this trilogy. According to what little briefing we have had in advance, May will use to make an explicit opening offer on the “Brexit bill” - the amount that the UK will be willing to pay the EU when it leaves. EU leaders have said the UK must pay for spending commitments in the current EU budget, which runs until 2020, and it seems May will agree, in a commitment worth around €20bn. This is important because it could be enough to break the deadlock in the Brexit negotiations, leading to the EU agreeing to move to the all-important phase two, the bit dealing with the future trade relationship, by the end of this year.

But there have been reports saying that the speech will still be relatively vague on what May wants long term. And, although further clarity on the transition is expected, it may not be enough to satisfy the EU side. On the Today programme this morning Chris Grayling, the pro-leave transport secretary, said that freedom of movement would end in 2019. Only yesterday Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said that the UK would have to accept EU law, including free movement, if it wanted a transition period which allowed it to keep trading in the single market (which is what May does want).

I will post more from the Grayling interview soon.

Here is our overnight preview story about the speech.

And here is my colleague Jon Henley’s guide to what to look out for in it.

May will deliver her speech at around 2.15pm UK time.

Barnier is expected to respond very soon after May has finished.

I will be focusing more or less exclusively on the speech today, with reaction and analysis. But we might get a line out of Martin Selmayr, chief of staff to the European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, who is speaking at an event in Brussels at lunchtime.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard’s Playbook. Here is the ConservativeHome round-up of today’s political stories. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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