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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Patrick Greenfield (now), Haroon SiddiqueKevin Rawlinson and Claire Phipps (earlier)

Brexit: no transition deal for Gibraltar, EU officials confirm – as it happened

Theresa May is welcomed by European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels.
Theresa May is welcomed by European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

It has been a very long day, and that’s all from us.

Read the full story on the breakthrough Brexit deal here:

Have a peaceful evening.

Anushka Asthana and Peter Walker report on Labour’s reaction to today’s initial Brexit deal.

Britain will be able to carry out criminal records checks on EU nationals seeking to stay in the country after Brexit under this morning’s agreement.

The issue was previously seen as a sticking point in negotiations after the UK’s position met resistance from Brussels, reports AP.

But in what the Government sees as a victory, the joint document released on Friday makes clear that “systematic criminality and security checks can - in the specific context of acquiring status under the Withdrawal Agreement - be carried out on all applicants for status under the agreement and applicants can be asked to declare criminality”.

EU citizens seeking to continue living in the UK after the country’s departure from the union will be required to apply to authorities to have their status rubber-stamped.

British citizens living in EU express anger at the deal

Campaigners for British citizens living in Europe have reacted with fury over claims from both sides that their rights have been guaranteed by the deal, claiming they have been “sold down a grubby river”.

They are concerned that while EU citizens living in the UK will continue to have the freedom to move and work around Europe, they will not, leaving them “landlocked” in the country they have settled in.

“This deal is even worse than we expected. After 18 months of wrangling the UK and EU have sold 4.5 mn people down the river in a grubby bargain that will have a severe impact on ordinary people’s ability to live their lives as we do now,” said Jane Golding, a British lawyer living in German and chair of the British in Europe campaign group.

They say the European Commission has reneged on a promise that UK citizens, who had moved to Europe in good faith, would continue to have freedom of movement rights

“This is a double disaster for British people living in Europe. At the moment, not only is it unclear whether we keep our automatic residency rights, but it looks like we can also kiss goodbye to continuing free movement beyond any agreed transition period – which so many of us who work across Europe rely on to support our families,” Golding added.

She said the UK “wasted a precious opportunity” to take up the Commission’s offer of status quo back in June.

EU citizens in the UK are also unhappy with the deal, especially the sunset clause that means their rights will only be governed by the European Court of Justice for eight years, and the requirement to register for a new “settled status” under British immigration law.

Nigel Farage has spent the day voicing his displeasure to the deal across media outlets.

When asked if the breakthrough was a victory for Theresa May, the LBC presenter told Sky News:

It’s a victory if you think paying away a gargantuan sum of money is a good thing, if you think giving foreign courts jurisdiction over this country for nearly up to a decade to come.

And, in terms of alignment, well, really what we are saying today is that the potential benefits of Brexit won’t be realised because we will not be able to put in place laws that suit our own industry.

In Greece, TV channels covering today’s breakthrough have emphasised that it will guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK.

Greece has an estimated 20,000 students in Britain and one of the largest and most vibrant academic communities in the UK.

Even if tentative, the prospect of a soft Brexit “respecting the rights” of EU citizens living and working in Britain has been highlighted by Greek correspondents in TV dispatches from London.

“Today’s agreement will ensure that [European nationals’] rights are respected,” SKAI TV’s London correspondent Thanasis Gavos told viewers. “Although everything of course is in the detail.”

Greek academics, like so many others, had voiced fears of enforced relocation in the event of a hard Brexit.

Updated

The EU and Japan have announced they have concluded negotiations for a giant free trade deal, AFP reports.

The trade deal, which the European Union called its biggest ever, must still be signed and ratified by both sides who first agreed to its broad outlines in July.

Once completed it will forge an economic zone of 600 million people with 30 percent of global GDP.

Under the deal, the EU will open its market to the world-leading Japanese auto industry, with Tokyo in return scrapping barriers to EU farming products, especially dairy.

Universities are happy about the news from Brussels, especially on the status of EU nationals working on British campuses, as well as continuing membership of European-wide research and exchange programmes.
“Today’s announcement means that the 46,000 EU nationals working across the UK university sector have clarity that they can remain and work in the UK and gain settled status,” said
Alistair Jarvis, chief executive of Universities UK lobby group.
“We also welcome the confirmation that people with settled status will be able to spend up to five consecutive years outside the UK without losing this status.
“It is positive news that the budget settlement reached means that UK universities, students and researchers will continue to be able to participate in valuable programmes such as Horizon 2020 and Erasmus+ until at least the end date of current programmes.”

While Ireland has welcomed the deal, some are anxious that Brexiteers are interpreting the words of the agreement on Ireland differently.
TD Stephen Donnelly, Fianna Fail’s Brexit spokesman, said he was concerned that a tweet by Boris Johnson suggested a completely different interpretation to the deal just done.

Brussels had been warned by countries around the world against giving Britain a better trade deal than is currently in place with any of the EU’s trading partners, officials said. A senior EU official said:

We cannot upset relations with other third countries. If we were to give the UK a very lopsided deal then the other partners with whom we have been engaging and entered into balanced agreements would of course come back and question those agreements.

Some of these agreements have specific most favoured nation clauses: if you give better to others you will have to come back and give us the same. So also for this reason we need to maintain this balance of rights and obligations.

Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, tweeted his congratulations on Friday afternoon, saying:

The agreements reached between the European Union and the United Kingdom are good news and will minimise the costs of Brexit. I congratulate Michel Barnier and Theresa May for their efforts on everyone’s behalf.

Today’s agreement has been given a boost by European parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, who said MEPs were ready to support the move to the next phase of talks.

Giving the agreement a warm welcome, he said the UK had accepted many of the parliament’s wishes, including direct effect of EU law, meaning an EU national living in the UK can use the protections of European law in British courts, as well as paying down obligations accrued as an EU member.

Our recommendation to the European council is now to go to phase two of the negotiations and that will be an important statement by the European parliament in the resolution next week

The European parliament does not have a formal veto over this stage, but often takes a tough line on Brexit and can vote down the final withdrawal treaty, adding a wild card element to the final outcome.

Verhofstadt said a lot of the parliament’s wishes had been taken into account, but named five outstanding issues to be settled, if the parliament is to give its consent before March 2019:

  1. Allowing EU nationals living in the UK to bring their future spouses and partners to the EU. Under the agreement only existing family members, rather than the future Ms or Mr Right fall under the agreement. Future children are covered by the agreement.
  2. Ensuring “light-touch” and free procedures for citizens to register in the UK, placing the burden of proof on the UK authorities. MEPs want a single application form for families
  3. The parliament is not satisfied with the language on the European court and will seek further guarantees that the ECJ’s writ will be binding.
  4. Securing free movement rights for British nationals in the EU, allowing, for example, a Briton in Spain to move anywhere else in the EU, rather than being tied to Spain.
  5. More detail on how to avoid a hard border on Ireland.

Sitting alongside him, Elmar Brok, the Brexit co-ordinator for the centre-right European People’s Party, suggested that no one should get carried away with today’s deal.

This is not yet the withdrawal agreement, it is an important step [towards] the withdrawal agreement.

Brexit Negotiator Guy Verhofstadt
Brexit Negotiator Guy Verhofstadt Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Some interesting thoughts from a Westminster source with good knowledge of northern Ireland and questions relating to the border.

They argue:

The Irish government never wanted any east-west/sea border between which would have been disastrous for its own economy, but has cleverly used the issue and the DUP to completely outmanoeuvre the UK government.

In particular they claim the Irish government has achieved:

  • full alignment with the single market and customs union on the island of Ireland even if that means the entire UK adhering;
  • EU rights, entitlements and benefits for all citizens born in Northern Ireland guaranteed, because everyone born there is entitled to Irish citizenship;
  • complete compliance with EU equality and human rights frameworks;
  • all underpinned by the “1998 Agreement” which the DUP opposed, as did Michael Gove and other senior Tories and indeed which caused Arlene Foster to leave the Ulster Unionist Party and join the DUP; and
  • the icing on the cake for the Irish is the reference to single market and customs union rules applying to future - ie more expansive - north-south co-operation.

'No transition deal for Gibraltar'

As it stands, Gibraltar will not enjoy the cushion a transition period, EU officials confirmed, and will drop out of the Single Market and the Customs Union when the UK leaves the bloc on 29 March 2019.

EU officials confirmed the Guardian’s story last month that an arrangement over the future of the rock needs to be struck between Spain and the UK, if the transition arrangement is to be extended to Gibraltar.

EU officials have made it clear that Theresa May’s suggestion that the transition period is in reality an implementation period, during which future arrangements such as customs checks could be introduced, is incorrect. There will be a “cliff edge” at the end of the transition period unless a future trade deal is in place by then, a senior EU official said.

Updated

The Conservative former Brexit minister, David Jones, has warned the “full alignment” plan to maintain a soft Irish border could stop Britain signing free trade deals with other countries. He told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme:

The worry about that, of course, is that that could well relate to very important areas such as for example agriculture, which we would want to throw into the mix in negotiating a free trade agreement with a third country.

And, if this were to persist, then it could severely handicap our ability to enter into those free trade agreements.

He called for the issue to be refined in future negotiations, alongside the introduction of a cap for the divorce bill, claiming the “back of an envelope” figure mentioned so far could rise “considerably”.

Ouch! MEPs are already dispelling claims that that the cost of withdrawing from the EU is likely to be less than £35bn (€40bn).

MEPs reached by the Guardian are saying it is impossible “at this stage” to really evaluate the Brexit divorce bill, suggesting today’s optimism is premature.

“It’s going to be more than €40bn for sure,” said the Greek MEP Giorgos Kyrtsos, who sits on the Economic and monetary affairs committee, which is regularly updated on Brexit negotiations.

It’s very difficult to estimate what the bill will be when we don’t know what the long-term obligations of the UK will be, and whether there’ll be liquidation of European assets.

The UK, he added, had investments in European banks and infrastructure that had to be taken into account and pensions that had to be paid.

The net contribution of the UK to the European budget is between €10bn and €12bn per year … right now, everyone is quoting a number that they want to hear but the impression that I - and those I talk to in Brussels - have is that it will definitely be more than €40bn. We are talking about a difference of €5bn or €10bn, which - in the grand scheme of things - is peanuts.

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has released a more detailed statement responding to this morning’s deal on the first stage of Brexit negotiations.

Describing the agreement as “a welcome step forward”, she signals a number of warnings to Theresa May, including the insistence that the Scottish government be “fully involved” in stage two negotiations on trade. Sturgeon says:

The next phase will be significantly tougher and it is essential all the UK’s governments are now fully involved in the negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU – something that has not happened to this point.

While fully supporting the protection of the Good Friday agreement and the guarantee that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland, Sturgeon goes on to highlight the continued contradictions in the UK government’s position, as she has done all week.

We will be seeking clarity on how the UK government intends to deliver full alignment with the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union. And there is no doubt that the provisions relating to Northern Ireland raise major new questions over proposed UK-wide frameworks that are the subject of on going talks between the UK and Scottish governments.

And I am absolutely clear that any special arrangements for Northern Ireland must now be available to other nations of the UK – the Scottish government will not accept any arrangements which risk putting Scotland at an economic disadvantage.

This reference to “major new questions” reflects her growing confidence that she can rebuild support for her own government’s stance on Brexit. That assumes special terms for Northern Ireland will fuel public anger that the Tories have no mandate to enforce a harder line for Scotland, given the country’s majority support for remaining in the EU and continued consensus that preserving the closest possible economic ties with Europe is the most desirable outcome.

Sturgeon said her ministers would continue to argue that case at the next meeting of the joint ministerial committee in London next week. Sturgeon concluded:

We will be studying the details of the phase one agreement but we welcome the fact that finally there has been some movement to guarantee the rights of EU and UK citizens – although it is disgraceful that it has taken this long and there is still more to do in phase two.

In addition it seems the UK could also now be paying around £50bn just for the right to negotiate an inferior trade deal than the one we have now.

It was confirmed this morning that the European Court of Justice will retain a role in the UK justice system after Brexit. But Downing Street has moved quickly to play down its significance.

An official insisted on Friday that only about two or three cases are expected to be referred to it each year, under provisions that will allow UK courts and tribunals to seek the Luxembourg court’s “interpretation” of questions relating to the rights of EU nationals in Britain.

Theresa May’s official spokesman stressed that the decision to refer would be “entirely voluntary” for UK courts and the ECJ would not have the power to call in cases.

Late-night talks, a visit from Boris Johnson and a Christmas party - here’s the inside story of how the Brexit deal was done.

The Ulster Unionists have made life a little easier for their rivals in the DUP in terms of ‘selling’ the latest deal on Brexit and the Irish border.

Veteran Ulster Unionist (UUP) MEP Jim Nicholson welcomed the latest arrangement but warned that pro-union people across the UK would not accept any measures on trade that would disconnect Northern Ireland from Britain.

Nicholson’s cautious endorsement of the deal will make the DUP high command less nervous about their grassroots and the wider unionist electorate.

The UUP MEP said:

We will closely follow any further discussion on ‘regulatory alignment’ in specific areas, and press the government to commitments made this week that any such alignment applies to the whole of the United Kingdom. We cannot have a situation whereby new trade barriers or internal borders are put up within the United Kingdom - it would undermine the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom, have serious implications for the Belfast Agreement and harm our local economy.

Equally, we do not want a return to the borders of the past and the best way to ensure a frictionless border between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland is to move to phase two of the Brexit negotiations, and agree a deep and comprehensive free trade deal. Now the UK and the EU have the opportunity to do just that, and develop a new bespoke trading relationship that works for all of the United Kingdom.

FTSE and sterling rise

Businesses and bankers urged the government to make urgent progress on trade talks after Theresa May secured a “hard won” agreement with the European commission to allow the government to move to the second stage of Brexit negotiations.

Sterling was higher against the euro, up 0.2% at €1.1468, after the prime minister and European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker announced their breakthrough in the discussions just before the European markets opened on Friday. The FTSE 100 index of leading stocks was 31 points higher at 7,352.

Bank of England officials have been calling for a transition deal to be agreed by Christmas to smooth the UK’s exit from the EU and delay the implementation of contingency plans that could result in 10,000 roles leaving the City on “day one” of Brexit in March 2019.

Stephen Jones, chief executive of the financial industry lobby group UK Finance, said Friday’s agreement was “just the start”.

We now need to see the detail and further action on those issues that will determine the real impact of Brexit on the economy, consumers and jobs. Businesses need to see clear progress in the new year on the future trading relationship and how we will transition to any new arrangements to ensure we can continue to meet the needs of customers.

The British Chambers of Commerce also called for more detail early in the new year about the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU. Its director general Adam Marshall, though, welcomed the clarity that EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU will have the right to stay:

The biggest priority for many firms since the EU referendum has been to get clarity and security for their European employees, whose contribution to business success across the UK is hugely valued. We are delighted that they, as well as UK citizens living and working in the EU, now have more clarity and can plan their future with greater confidence.

PM says 'fair settlement of obligations'

Theresa May’s spokesman said:

We see this as a fair settlement of our obligations. We’ve always been clear that where we had obligation we would honour them. It’s been a forensic process, teams from the Department from Exiting the European Union went through this line by line but we think we’ve reached a fair agreement.

In terms of the ECJ (European court of justice) we think we are looking at around two to three cases a year in relation to citizens’ rights only and most importantly it would be a decision taken by a British court whether or not they wanted to refer a case to the ECJ for a view, that would be an entirely voluntary process. It will be the UK courts who are taking the decisions.

On UK citizens in Europe moving to other European countries - that is a matter that has not been settled yet.

He also joked that the documents were in “excruciating detail” - the same words David Davis used to describe the impact assessments.
On the EU draft guidelines , the PM’s spokesman said:

We are leaving the single market and the customs union in March 2019 - I will write it on a sign if you like.

The Leave Means Leave group, backed by some Tory MP, is, like fellow Brexiter Nigel Farage, not enamoured by the deal reached today:

Sadiq Khan has revealed he has commissioned his own Brexit impact papers for the capital after the furore surrounding the government’s own assessments, which David Davis said did not exist after all.

The London Evening Standard reports that the mayor of London has commissioned reports by independent experts Cambridge Econometrics, and quotes him as saying:

It is outrageous that the Government either failed to properly consider the impact of Brexit on Britain’s economy, or are refusing to release their analysis.

If it’s the former then I question their competence. If it is the latter then I question whether they have something to hide.

We need to know the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our economy in order to deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs and growth.

Sadiq Khan speaks at a business reception in the grounds of the British High Commission in Islamabad during a visit to Pakistan.
Sadiq Khan speaks at a business reception in the grounds of the British High Commission in Islamabad during a visit to Pakistan. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

Campaigns for UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK have branded today’s deal “a double disaster”. Jane Golding, the chair of British in Europe, said:

This deal is even worse than we expected. After 18 months of wrangling, the UK and EU have sold 4.5 million people down the river in a grubby bargain that will have a severe impact on ordinary people’s ability to live their lives as we do now.

This is a double disaster for British people living in Europe. At the moment, not only is it unclear whether we keep our automatic residency rights, but it looks like we can also kiss goodbye to continuing free movement beyond any agreed transition period – which so many of us who work across Europe rely on to support our families.

On the other side of the argument, the hard Brexit supporter, Nigel Farage, is equally unhappy.

Updated

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, warned that the next phase of Brexit talks, on the future, would be harder than the divorce. “Not everyone has yet well understood that there are points that are non-negotiable for the EU,” he said reiterating there would be no watering down or of the EU’s four freedoms (goods, services, people and capital) or decision-making autonomy.

The commission had studied Theresa May’s red lines, he said, and concluded that the only option for the UK was a free-trade agreement modelled on the deal the EU struck with Canada in 2016, an arrangement that would mark a major retreat from the current level of economic integration.

The Green party reacts to the announcement of a divorce agreement having been reached by calling for a referendum on whether or not to accept the final Brexit deal struck by the government.

And yet more from Germany, where the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper says:

The message on this Friday in Brussels: it’s not going to get any easier – on the contrary. The EU is going to stay tough. Whether it can keep a united front remains to be seen. Until now, all 27 EU states had a common interest; when it comes to a deal on the future relationship, the situation is different. Especially economically strong nations, like the Netherlands or Germany, have different interests to, for example, Greece or Bulgaria.

And Die Welt writes:

May’s government team remains as torn as before on what Brexit is actually meant to look like. The cabinet only wants to decide at the end of the year on what it wants to see after 29 March 2019. A model à la Norway, with access to the EU single market, which would however also involve free movement of EU citizens? A no-go with the hardliners. A trade deal à la Canada? That would be a blow for the British finance industry, which would no longer have barrier-free access to the European market.

Some more reaction from Ireland, where the opposition leader has been discussing the course on which he believes today’s agreement has set the UK.

On Tory WhatsApp groups, everyone is praising Theresa May. Today’s agreement has had the unusual effect of pleasing some hardline Brexiters.

Nadine Dorries has tweeted a meme from the Institute of Directors doing the rounds on Twitter that: “This deal is an early Christmas present for businesses in the UK.”

Those on the other side of the argument, such as Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry, also think this is a potential win for them. The latter tells me:

This is an important moment because it is a move in the right direction to a much more sensible, softer Brexit. I don’t care about the words we use - I’m interested in the benefits it delivers and this is a move towards delivering the benefits of the customs union and single market and that is good news for British business.

She said, ultimately, she doesn’t believe the UK can get a bespoke deal, so it will be “more EFTA or WTO”. And she argues that Britain must be pushing for the former.

There was only one question on the ballot paper - leave or remain. We are leaving the EU, let’s do it in best way to bring country back together. And that means trying to achieve benefits of single market and customs union.

Meanwhile a Labour MP tells me: “Now is the moment for the Labour party to definitively say that we are for a soft Brexit and for staying in the customs union. Theresa May has conceded the principle of regulatory alignment - rather than spend months wasting time to say what we want- lets just say it now.”

Updated

The Irish government’s chief whip has welcomed the Brexit/Irish border deal, saying it would be a huge step forward in keeping the frontier open.

Joe McHugh, who represents the border constituency of Donegal in the Dail, said it was a positive day for people living on both sides of the 300-plus-mile border.

McHugh said the confirmation that checkpoints would not be reintroduced along the frontier with Northern Ireland would be welcomed by communities in both jurisdictions.

Ireland achieved all our goals in the phase one negotiations, including - crucially for people in this county - that there will be no hard border after Britain leaves the EU.

The agreement preserves the Common Travel Area and protects all the relationships agreed in the Good Friday Agreement.

EU and UK negotiators reached an agreement overnight which took full account of border counties like Donegal.

Brexit divorce bill revealed

Britain’s divorce bill is estimated to be £35bn-£39bn (€40bn-€45bn), it has been disclosed.

The UK will only pay if a wider withdrawal agreement is struck by Brexit day and there is swift agreement on a transition period. It includes the payment promised by Theresa May in her Florence speech, which she linked to a two-year “implementation period”, as she describes it. The EU is not linking the sum to the transition period, however.

If the UK wants a transition period beyond 31 December 2020, when the current seven-year EU budget ends, it will have to pay more. The EU is also leaving open the question of whether or not it will seek additional funds in return for the transition period. The money will be paid over time rather than in a lump sum.

Updated

TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said the news allowed the government to move on to discussions about what she said were the major issues: “How we get a good deal that protects workers’ rights, jobs and livelihoods.”

But she said it was “clear the government’s determination to leave the single market and customs unions is getting in the way”. O’Grady added:

The government must drop its self-defeating red lines and put these options back on the table. And, before the next round of talks, we need a sea-change in the way the government acts. Ministers need to bring in the negotiating expertise of unions and employers.

The Irish prime minister has pledged to be a “close friend” of Theresa May’s in the next stage of negotiations on the back of today’s agreement on the Irish border.

At a breakfast press conference in Dublin, Leo Varadkar said he was very keen that Britain gets deep and ambitious deal on trade because that would be good for Ireland too.

He said Theresa May “would have no closer friend” than Ireland during the phase two negotiations and he hoped the special deal struck for Northern Ireland would not come to pass because it would not be needed.

He admitted Anglo-Irish relations had been damaged by Brexit rows but believes that can be repaired quickly.

I’ll be very frank. Brexit by its nature has strained relations between Ireland and the UK, of course it has, how could it not. Our role now is to get through that.

I actually think because of this agreement that we have today, because we have the guarantees and the assurances that we sought, Britain will have no closer friend than Ireland.

He described the deal as “a significant day” for Ireland and said he wanted to assure the people of Northern Ireland “here is no question of us trying to exploit Brexit as a means of moving to a United Ireland without consent”.

The difference between this deal and the deal agreed on Monday that the Democratic Unionist Party scuppered was mostly “stylistic” but involved on significant guarantee that there would be no border controls in the Irish Sea.

Varadkar confirmed he had not spoken to Arlene Foster since Monday and all talks were channeled through Brussels Brexit task force.

Foster has said she has won six guarantees in the deal but had not won everything she wanted and had “cautioned” the prime minister not to accept the deal.

Informed sources said May had “no choice but to face the DUP down. The stakes were too big not to progress talks. But we know Arlene is happy”.

Foster welcomed that there would be no “red line” down the Irish Sea and a “clear confirmation” that there would be “no new regulatory barriers” between Northern Ireland and the UK.

Earlier, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, had said the Irish border deal was a “relief” for “everybody in the country.”

Theresa May said the deal would guarantee there would be no barriers “north, south, east, west”.

Updated

Reaction is now coming in from within the EU27 nations. Joachim Lang, the director of the Association of German Industry (BDI), warns London not to have “any false illusions”.

The hardest part of the negotiations still lies ahead of us. Industry needs clarity on the future relationship at the earliest opportunity. The negotiations have to step up a gear. London must not have any false illusions. Our businesses must know soon what model Downing Street envisions for the future deal and what the transition phase on the way there will look like.

In an op-ed, the leading German financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, is more hopeful. It says:

It is indeed now more likely that a disorderly Brexit without divorce settlement can be avoided. The threat of the traffic of goods and people between the British Isles and the continent collapsing overnight on 29 March 2019 appears to have been banished.

Somewhat later than his senior cabinet colleagues, the foreign secretary - a prominent Leave campaigner - has expressed his support for the prime minister after the announcement that the divorce deal has been agreed.

Updated

The guarantee there will be no regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK is not just welcome to the DUP it is also hugely significant for Ireland. The UK is Ireland’s single biggest export market with annual trade including sales of beef, dairy, pharma and services worth around £50bn a year.

Democratic Unionist sources said the key aspect of the late-night agreement was the fact that trading regulations with Ireland - and indeed the whole of the EU - would be UK-wide.

They described this outcome as “Nigel’s red line” - a reference to the DUP leader at Westminster, Nigel Dodds. The North Belfast MP had insisted through the night that any trading relationships would be uniform whether they be in Bristol, Birmingham or Belfast.

The sources also said it was a ‘Troika’ of DUP leaders who sat through the night in constant touch with the prime minister’s officials in Brussels and London. They included Dodds and the party’s chief whip in the Commons, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.

The pair liaised with the DUP’s leader, Arlene Foster, who remained at her home in Enniskillen, Co.Fermanagh.

The mood in the party so far this morning is said to be calm and relatively relaxed about this new arrangement, which the DUP high command is selling to the grassroots as a guarantee against the redrawing of the border into the Irish Sea or, in effect, decoupling Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

The Liberal Democrat leader, Vince Cable, welcomed news of the agreement, saying it would reduce the “risk of a catastrophic No Deal Brexit”

But how long will this deal last before it is torn apart by Theresa May’s own MPs? And what will happen next, seeing as the cabinet hasn’t even discussed yet what the final Brexit outcome should look like?

There are still two opposing views in government, those who want a close arrangement with the EU and those who want to tear apart decades of work building ties with our closest trading partner.

And there is still no solution over how to prevent a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The biggest obstacle to the government’s Brexit plans is being kicked into the long grass.

The government is still a long way from a final deal, and even further from delivering on what the Brexiters promised.

At the end of this process, it is the British people, not Tory MPs and the DUP, who should get to decide whether the deal is good enough.

Following the lead of many of his Labour colleagues, the mayor of London Sadiq Khan says the prime minister has “done what is necessary”, but that we “should have got to this point many months ago”. He says:

The government need to now accelerate progress - we simply cannot afford further delays. It is clear from the many conversations I have with business leaders that they need to know the details of the interim deal as early as possible in order to avoid having to put contingency plans into place.

I welcome the apparent U-turn from Theresa May on the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and British citizens living in the EU. I will pore over the details of this over the coming days because there needs to be clear and unambiguous reassurance to the three million EU citizens in Britain – one million of whom are Londoners – that they can stay, and that they’ll have automatic full rights.

However, it is extremely disappointing that the prime minister is still insisting that Britain will leave the single market and customs union. Staying in both is without a doubt the best long-term solution for London and Britain.

Despite the progress today, it looks increasingly unlikely that we will get a deal that works in London’s best interests and protects jobs and growth across Britain.

Following on from Khan’s focus on business confidence in the capital - on a national leavel, the Confederation of British Industry says this morning’s news will “lift spirits in the run-up to Christmas”. Its deputy director-general, Josh Hardie, says:

There are two things that are top of the list. First is the final step for those EU citizens working here, and UK citizens abroad. It must be unequivocal that they are welcome, whatever the final deal. This cannot be their second Christmas where their rights are dependent on negotiations. Next is transition. Concrete assurances will build confidence and help firms across the UK and Europe to pause their contingency planning.

The national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, Mike Cherry, also welcomes the progress. He says:

The focus must now shift to the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU. This should include, by early next year, a guarantee that there will be no cliff-edge moment on Brexit day, but instead an orderly, time-limited transition period so that small firms only have one set of rule changes. The final deal must have as few barriers to trade as possible.

In a statement released via the anti-Brexit Open Britain campaign, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna says it was “about time” the prime minister concluded an agreement that allowed the UK to move on to talks about a trade deal.

Echoing the comments made by the European Council president, Donald Tusk, Umunna says:

A huge amount of time has been lost thanks to divisions in Cabinet, and the prime minister’s ridiculous red lines. In the meantime, new facts have come to light, on everything from Northern Ireland to the impact of Brexit for our NHS.

It has cost us a £50bn divorce bill to get this far. This is on top of a huge hit of tens of billions of pounds in lower growth since the referendum and higher prices in the shops because of the plunge in the value of the pound.

When it comes to trade talks, the only model on offer is a Canada-style agreement which the prime minister and the chancellor have said would be bad for our economy.

Faced with these new facts, people will understandably want to keep an open mind as to whether the costs of Brexit are worth it.

Lots of Labour politicians are making the argument that this morning’s deal still leaves us with the same difficulties in the second phase - and they believe it is now more likely we remain within the EU economic structures. One MP, Stephen Doughty, tells me:

The only way that full alignment can be achieved is remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. It has been clear all along that you can’t have your cake and eat it in these negotiations. This is where reality bites. Perhaps now the absurdity of a no deal scenario and crashing out will finally be taken of the table by the Brextremists.

Also interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Scotland’s Brexit minister Michael Russell appeared to flesh out Nicola Sturgeon’s earlier concerns about “special arrangements for Northern Ireland”, saying:

The agreement talks about giving the Northern Ireland assembly and executive full rights to make certain decisions. We’ve been asking for this for a year, so it seems rather perverse that the Northern Irish - who didn’t want it - get given it, and Scotland - which does want it - doesn’t get given it.

Russell said that the deal was currently confused.

The agreement also seems to indicate a very close relationship with the single market and the customs union... but that’s not something [about which] you can be ambiguous... Trying to pretend it does and doesn’t exist will not be possible in the next stage.

Asked by John Humphrys what the difference was between ‘full alignment’ and ‘membership of’, Russell joked: “If you have the answer to that I think you will do well.”

Updated

The DUP are going to face some opposition in its further right flank over this new Brexit/border deal.

The hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice, which is made up mainly of ex-DUP members opposed to power sharing government with Sinn Fein, have come out against the agreement.

TUV leader and former DUP MEP Jim Allister said the arrangement was “one way traffic” that only makes commitments by the UK to the EU and not the other way around.

He added: “If there is no UK/EU trade deal, is wholly prejudicial to Northern Ireland’s complete leaving of the EU. This default position, if there is no deal, leaves us entrapped within the EU’s single market and customs union on an unspecified, but clearly extensive, range of issues, whereas the rest of the UK would be liberated from such.”

This morning, however, DUP sources said they were confident they could sell the broad outline of this deal to their membership and, indeed, the wider unionist electorate.

Although Allister and the TUV are a monkey on the DUP’s back, it will be the reaction of the Ulster Unionists that will be more important in terms of unionism’s overall position on the arrangement.

If the UUP broadly accepts the terms of what Theresa May has secured overnight, then the larger DUP will be comfortable in terms of selling this package.

Looking back to Ireland, where the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been speaking and more reaction has been coming out from other sources, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll has this:

Varadkar added that he had not spoken to the leader of the DUP, Arlene Foster. But he made reference to the changes in the text - responsibility for many of which Foster has claimed:

The reaction by many Labour politicians has been one of cautious, muted - perhaps even begrudging - congratulation. The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, typifies it, saying:

Despite being two months later than originally planned, it is encouraging that the European Commission has recommended sufficient progress in the Brexit negotiations.

The priority for both sides now must be to agree transitional arrangements on the same basic terms as we have now. That means staying in the single market and a customs union for a time-limited period.

We will also need to know the political price of the deal struck and the impact any compromise that has been agreed will have on our future relationship with the EU.

As the talks now move on to a discussion about Britain’s future relationship with the European Union, Theresa May must seriously reflect on her approach to the negotiations so far. We cannot have another year of chaos and confusion or the farcical scenes we saw earlier on in the week that put jobs and the economy at risk.

Michel Barnier, the European chief negotiator, is next up. He thanks those he has worked with on the talks to achieve the agreement. He says the EU side has worked together and there has been “real progress” on the three main issues.

He warns that there are more hurdles to be cleared in future.

Speaking to Today, Gove repeats his referendum claim that money that would otherwise have gone to the European Union will now be available to the NHS, though he gives no precise figure for how much that would be.

That is party because he wants to remain steadfast in his refusal to say how much the UK will end up having to pay the EU.

The report released today does not specify a figure. But it says the UK will be required to continue contributions to the EU budget up to the end of 2020 “as if it had remained in the union”.

It will also remain liable for its share of outstanding financial commitments and liabilities up to December 31 2020. The financial settlement “will be drawn up and paid in euro”.

Updated

Gove said the “role” of the Court of Justice of the European Union will be limited to eight years - during which time, courts in the UK would need to pay “due regard” to its decisions.

British judges could refer cases to the court, he says, for guidance. But Gove stresses that “would be a matter for British judges” where they believe EU case law is not sufficiently clear.

Gove adds that any EU sceptic would be happy with the deal the prime minister has agreed, had they been presented with it two years ago. However, in June last year, Gove was quoted as saying that, in the days immediately after Brexit, the government should pass “emergency measures to curb the baleful influence” of the European Court of Justice.

Updated

The senior Leave campaigner, Michael Gove, has been speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. He said the agreement was a “significant personal, political achievement” for Theresa May.

The Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, is holding a press conference right now. He says: “We have achieved all that we set out to achieve.” He said the parameters on the “Irish issues” had been set - and they were met.

Varadkar paraphrases Winston Churchill, saying: “This is not the end, but it is the end of the beginning.”

Everyone born in Northern Ireland will retain their right to EU citizenship, he confirms.

Updated

Here is the full text of Donald Tusk’s speech:

This morning, I received the confirmation from our negotiators that sufficient progress has been made. This allows me to present the draft guidelines for the December European Council, which I have just sent to the leaders. My proposals are the following.

First, we should start negotiating the transition period, so that people and businesses have clarity about their situation. As you know, the UK has asked for a transition of about two years, while remaining part of the Single Market and Customs Union. And we will be ready to discuss this, but naturally, we have our conditions. I propose that during this period, the UK will respect:

    • the whole of EU law, including new law;
    • it will respect budgetary commitments;
    • it will respect judicial oversight;
    • and of course, all the related obligations.

Clearly, within the transition period following the UK’s withdrawal, EU decision-making will continue among the 27 member states, without the UK.

All of what I have said seems to be the only reasonable solution, and it is in the interest of all our citizens that it is agreed as soon as possible. This is why I will ask the EU leaders to mandate our negotiator to start these talks immediately.

Second, we want to begin discussions with the UK in order to explore the British vision of its future relationship with the EU. So far, we have heard a number of various ideas. We need more clarity on how the UK sees our future relations, after it has left the Single Market and Customs Union. I therefore propose to mandate our negotiator to start exploratory talks with our British friends about this problem. On our side, we are ready to start preparing a close EU-UK partnership in trade, but also in the fight against terrorism and international crime as well as security, defence and foreign policy. For this to happen, the European Council will have to adopt additional guidelines next year.

While being satisfied with today’s agreement, which is obviously the personal success of Prime Minister Theresa May, let us remember that the most difficult challenge is still ahead. We all know that breaking up is hard. But breaking up and building a new relation is much harder. Since the Brexit referendum, a year and a half has passed. So much time has been devoted to the easier part of the task. And now, to negotiate a transition arrangement and the framework for our future relationship, we have de facto less than a year. Thank you

As previously noted, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon has already responded to the announcement on Twitter, cautioning that “things now get really tough” and repeating her warning that “any special arrangements for Northern Ireland must be available to other UK nations”.

At first minister’s questions yesterday, Sturgeon blasted Theresa May’s government as “dissembling, mendacious and totally, totally incompetent” and challenged Jeremy Corbyn to “get his act together” to champion a Commons majority in favour of staying within the single market and the customs union.

Earlier in the week, she argued that Scotland would a “doubly disadvantaged” by special status for Northern Ireland and hinted that such a scenario would strengthen the case for independence.

The Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, who warned May earlier this week that her draft deal for Northern Ireland risked bolstering Sturgeon’s calls for independence, has issued a brief and brisk comment on Twitter:

Political reaction to the news is starting to come in. Perhaps unsurprisingly, members of the cabinet are in congratulatory mood:

However, outside the government, scepticism remains:

The MEP and arch-Brexiter, Nigel Farage, is unimpressed:

Updated

Here’s a recap of the moment Jean-Claude Juncker confirmed enough progress had been made to proceed to the second phase of negotiations.

The DUP sets out the six concessions it says it managed to secure during negotiations:

The party’s leader, Arlene Foster, called it “substantial progress”. Her negotiations with Theresa May went into the early hours of Friday, but she made it clear that she believed there was “still more work to be done”.

Updated

Tusk: Breaking up is hard, building a new relationship is harder

Secondly, Tusk wants to discuss the future relationship. He says “various ideas” have been floated, but the UK needs to provide more clarity on what it wants. He says he wants a close partnership on trade, but also in other policy areas - such as fighting terrorism and other crime.

He says today’s agreement is a “personal success” for Theresa May. But he has a warning: “The most difficult challenge is still ahead”. Tusk tells reporters:

We all know that breaking up is hard. But breaking up and building a new relation is much harder.

And, to finish, he delivers a stinging rebuke to the UK side, noting that more than a year has passed since the referendum result.

So much time has been devoted to the easier part of the task. And now, to negotiate a transition arrangement and a framework for our future relationship, we have de facto less than a year.

Updated

The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is speaking now.

He confirms he has received the recommendation that talks should move on. First, he says, we should start negotiating the transition period. He says the UK has requested that should last two years. In return for that, the UK will need to respect EU laws - including new laws, budgetary decisions and judiciary oversight.

The European Council is the body that comprises the heads of state and government that received - and needed to formally act upon - the European Commission’s recommendation to move on to the next stage of negotiations. Tusk indicates that formality has now been undertaken.

Updated

As my colleague Dan Roberts points out, that passage means the UK has ensured it has a clause in there that makes clear Northern Ireland will not be decoupled from the rest of the country.

That would seem to tie in with Arlene Foster’s comments earlier this morning that she had been assured there would be “no red line down the Irish Sea”.

Theresa May has promised there will be no barriers “north, south, east or west” between Ireland and Northern Ireland with “full alignment” between the two. Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, said:

We have a good outcome, this has been a difficult negotiation, I hope both sides are happy with what we have. It puts a floor in terms of what’s possible in the outcome.

The relevant passage - paragraph 48 - of the joint report reads:

The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom’s intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all- island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

Asked by RTE what was different in the text between Monday and now, Coveney said paragraph 50 was entirely new. It reads:

In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland’s businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

Updated

May has now moved on to her meeting with Donald Tusk, the president of the European council. The council now also needs to stamp its approval on the deal. We’re expecting to hear from Tusk at around 7.30am GMT.

I’m now handing the blog over to my colleague Kevin Rawlinson, who’ll bring you the Tusk words, along with the rest of the day’s fallout.

Thanks for starting early with us, and do stick around.

The text of the agreement sets out what has been agreed on the three key issues of phase one of the talks: citizens’ rights, the Irish border and the divorce bill.

Here’s what Theresa May had to say this morning on these, via Press Association:

The prime minister said that the agreement would guarantee the rights of three million EU citizens in the UK “enshrined in UK law and enforced by British courts”.

She said that it included a financial settlement which was “fair to the British taxpayer” and a guarantee that there will be “no hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic, preserving the “constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom”.

At the press conference, May gave little detail of how these positions had been arrived at. Here is the link where the nitty-gritty – along with a number of yet-to-be determined questions – can be found.

Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, and Helen McEntee, the minister for European affairs, will hold a press conference in response to today’s announcement at 8am, around an hour from now.

Here is the link to the text of the agreement.

And a key line on Northern Ireland:

The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls.

What happens next?

Here’s what the European commission says:

If the European Council (Article 50) considers that sufficient progress has been made, the negotiators of the European Commission and of the United Kingdom Government will begin drafting a Withdrawal Agreement based on Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on the basis of the Joint Report and the outcome of the negotiations on other withdrawal issues.

In line with the Guidelines of 29 April 2017, and once the Member States agree with the Commission’s assessment, the Commission stands ready to begin work immediately on any possible transitional arrangements and to start exploratory discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom.

In other words: phase two.

May, questioned by a reporter, denies the text implies any kind of special status for Northern Ireland.

She says they might need to look for special arrangements because of the “unique circumstances” of the island of Ireland.

She says there won’t be a hard border but the deal will maintain the integrity of the internal market in the UK.

Scouring the agreement text, the BBC’s Ross Hawkins notes this line on future arrangements to ensure a soft border in Ireland: “full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union”.

May says she expects next week to win the endorsement of the 27 member states to proceed to phase two of the negotiations, following the recommendation of the commission today.

May says she will write today “to the people of Northern Ireland to set out our approach”.

May: there will be no hard border in Ireland

The deal will guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and of UK citizens in the EU, May says.

She says those living in the UK will have their rights enshrined in UK law and will be able to live their lives as they have done so far.

There will be no hard border in Ireland, she adds.

Theresa May is speaking now.

She says today’s agreement is a “significant improvement” on Monday’s text and is in “the best interests of the whole of the UK”.

I will always be sad about this development but now we must start looking to the future, Juncker adds.

He says he and May agree on the need for a “deep and close partnership” and to work together on trade and security, among other issues.

Today I am hopeful that we are now all moving towards the second phase of these challenging negotiations.

Juncker says May “has been as good as her word” on the UK’s financial commitments, as set out in what he calls her “remarkable” Florence speech.

He says the PM has also made it clear that she has made it a priority to protect peace in Northern Ireland.

Juncker says: “We have now made the breakthrough we needed.”

He says May has assured him that the new text has the backing of the UK government.

He says the agreement is “of course a compromise”.

May and Juncker press conference

Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker have emerged from their working breakfast to set out where they’re up to.

Juncker confirms that the commission will now recommend that negotiations can go forward to phase two.

European Commission: 'sufficient progress has been made'

Here is the statement from the commission that clears the way for the European council to agree that negotiations can now proceed to phase two:

The European Commission has today recommended to the European Council (Article 50) to conclude that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom. It is now for the European Council (Article 50) on 15 December 2017 to decide if sufficient progress has been made, allowing the negotiations to proceed to their second phase.

The Commission’s assessment is based on a Joint Report agreed by the negotiators of the Commission and the United Kingdom Government, which was today endorsed by Prime Minister Theresa May during a meeting with President Jean-Claude Juncker.

The Commission is satisfied that sufficient progress has been achieved in each of the three priority areas of citizens’ rights, the dialogue on Ireland / Northern Ireland, and the financial settlement, as set out in the European Council Guidelines of 29 April 2017. The Commission’s negotiator has ensured that the life choices made by EU citizens living in the United Kingdom will be protected. The rights of EU citizens living in the United Kingdom and United Kingdom citizens in the EU27 will remain the same after the United Kingdom has left the EU. The Commission has also made sure that any administrative procedures will be cheap and simple for EU citizens in the United Kingdom.

As regards the financial settlement, the United Kingdom has agreed that commitments taken by the EU28 will be honoured by the EU28, including the United Kingdom.

With regard to the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom acknowledges the unique situation on the island of Ireland and has made significant commitments to avoid a hard border.

Among the many questions thrown up by DUP leader Arlene Foster’s apparent endorsement of whatever deal we are about to have unveiled in front of us: how can the assurance that, as she puts it, “the entirety of the UK is leaving the single market and the customs union” be squared with demands that there be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic?

We’ll also be looking to find out what the “six substantive changes” won by the DUP amount to.

As I said, Brexit means breakfast. But where is the coffee?

The Sun gives May a boost this morning with a report that she has “won her fight with the EU” on the future role of the European court of justice – although Brexiters might not be quite as enthusiastic.

The EU had insisted that, post Brexit, issues concerning citizens’ rights and access to the single market must come under the remit of the ECJ. May has already conceded that the court would continue to have jurisdiction in Britain during any transition period.

The Sun reports – under the headline “We win, EU lose” – that this period will be a full decade, running until 2029. It admits the apparent agreement “risks infuriating Tory Brexiteers”.

Donald Tusk has put back his statement in order to meet Theresa May at 7am GMT (8am CET). The statement from the European council president will now be at 7.30am.

Overnight, Julian Smith, the government chief whip, sent a series of tweets strongly hinting that a deal had been reached:

So … we have a deal? Juncker’s chief of staff has tweeted a puff of white smoke, Vatican-style:

Arlene Foster: 'no red line down the Irish Sea'

DUP leader Arlene Foster tells Sky News her party has won “six substantive changes” to the text on the Irish border proposed earlier this week, including:

No red line down the Irish Sea … [and] very clear confirmation that the entirety of the UK is leaving the single market and the customs union.

Foster said her party had been working with No 10 “right into the early hours” and that she had been “negotiating directly with the prime minister”.

Theresa May now has “a text she feels she can take back to Europe”, Foster says.

Foster says that while she is satisfied that “constitutionally, politically and economically … the integrity of the United Kingdom was kept in place”, the DUP has not secured all it wanted in the new agreement:

There are still matters there that we would have liked to see clarified – we ran out of time.

Sky News reports that DUP leader Arlene Foster is saying “substantive changes” have been made to the text concerning a post-Brexit Irish border following all-night talks.

We’ll hear from May and Juncker after their meeting, which is slated to last around half an hour. Reports – and the presence of May and Davis in Brussels at the crack of dawn – suggest a deal has been reached. But we’ve been here before, of course …

The prime minister was met by Juncker and his chief of staff Martin Selmayr at 6.56am local time (5.56am GMT) as she arrived at the Berlaymont HQ of the European commission.

Theresa May arrives in Brussels

Reporters at the Berlaymont say the prime minister and David Davis have arrived for the meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker.

Jean-Claude Juncker is in the building; May and Davis are due to arrive imminently. Let’s hope someone has ordered in strong coffees.

A handy guide to a term you might be hearing a lot today:

What is regulatory alignment?

Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland (as part of the UK) are in the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards.

The only way to avoid a hardening of the border after Brexit is to ensure regulations and standards on both sides remain more or less the same in areas such as food, medicines and so on.

This might imply a permanent acceptance of EU rules – something that would be anathema to hardline UK Brexiters and the DUP, who reject anything that would “decouple” the North from the UK.

Brexit secretary David Davis told parliament that regulatory alignment would not mean adopting exactly the same rules as the EU but “mutually recognised” rules and inspections. This would help avoid a hard border, but would also limit the UK’s ability to diverge from EU regulations.

However, an official in Brussels countered that regulatory alignment would mean the UK would have to implement rules from Brussels without having influence over them.

Can it work?

Parliament cannot bind its successors. This principle would mean a deal would never be completely secure for more than five years – putting its feasibility in doubt.

What the papers say

Theresa May’s late-night Brexit deal talks make it to the front of many papers, but with details lacking as the printing presses rolled, only the Telegraph leads on it, anticipating that the PM will sign a deal today.

The Daily Express warns of “chaos to last 10 days”, but is referring to the weather.

The bitcoin surge is the Times splash, while the Guardian leads on a damning report into universities that concludes few students are getting value for money. The i points the finger at vice-chancellors’ rather generous pay packets.

Guardian front page, Friday 8 December 2017

The Financial Times leads on its own analysis of the gender pay gap and concludes that submissions from firms that claimed to have no gap were “highly improbable”.

The Daily Mail reports that defence secretary Gavin Williamson is refusing to back down from his comments that British Isis fighters ought to be killed rather than allowed to return to the UK.

Meghan Markle’s father would like to walk her down the aisle at her wedding to Prince Harry, according to the Mirror. And the Sun says a suspect was allowed to escape after police officers decided not to pursue him across a muddy field.

Incidentally, if you’d like a rundown of the front pages in your inbox each weekday morning, along with the key news, sign up for the Guardian briefing and we’ll make it happen:

Updated

May and Juncker to meet at 6am

Mina Andreeva, deputy chief spokeswoman for Jean-Claude Juncker, says the meeting between the European commission president and Theresa May at 6am GMT is “now confirmed”.

A press conference is due to follow the meeting.

Sky News reports that Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP, will make a statement later today. It was a phone call from Foster that forced May to pull back from a deal almost struck at the beginning of the week over the Irish border.

Foster later said the text of the not-quite-agreement had come as a “big shock … we realised there was no way we could sign up to that text”.

Following all-night talks, can we hazard that the pre-breakfast Brussels dash by May and Davis means the DUP is now on board? (Figuratively – we don’t believe they’re on the plane.)

Updated

Downing Street has now confirmed that David Davis is accompanying Theresa May to Brussels, where they will meet with Jean-Claude Juncker and the EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier imminently.

Why is the Irish border a stumbling block for Brexit?

Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two.

Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety.

Early drafts of the agreement Britain hoped to get signed off earlier this week said there would be “no divergence” from EU rules that “support north-south cooperation” – later changed to “continued alignment” in a formulation that appeared to allow for subtle divergences.

But it raised new questions about who would oversee it and how disputes might be resolved. It was also clearly still a step too far for the DUP.

Here’s what we know so far about the overnight machinations:

With the EU’s deadline rapidly approaching, the prime minister cleared her diary to travel to meet Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk on Friday morning.

The chief spokesman for the commission, Margaritis Schinas, tweeted:

The developments came as May edged closer to a deal with the DUP over the Irish border, as the EU warned she only had until midnight on Sunday to salvage the agreement or face a long delay in starting Brexit trade talks.

Tusk and Juncker had cleared their schedules for a late meal with May on Thursday night. However, the prime minister would not commit to travelling until she had a firm agreement nailed down with the DUP, after the party unexpectedly vetoed the first proposal on Monday over fears it would give Northern Ireland a different Brexit deal to the rest of the UK.

DUP sources were still sounding a note of caution on Thursday night, saying they had still not signed off any deal and there was more work to do.

As the clock ticked down, Tusk said he would be giving a statement on the situation at 6.50am on Friday – before the stock exchange opened – prompting speculation that he was about to pass on information that could affect the markets.

Sources close to Tusk said he would be leaving early for a meeting in Hungary but there was growing speculation that a new proposal for solving the Irish border issue would be ready on Friday morning.

A negotiating team from the DUP, including its Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, spent much of the day holed up in the Cabinet Office with May’s team trying to make headway with a new draft text.

Earlier on Thursday, Simon Coveney, the Irish trade minister, indicated there was still room for compromise but made it clear his side would not budge on the key issue of some regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic to prevent the reemergence of a hard border.

The Brexit secretary, David Davis, is also reportedly travelling with May to Brussels for their early meeting.

Brexit means breakfast

It’s an early start for politics and the politics live blog this morning, with the prospect of an announcement on whether a deal has been struck to allow British and EU negotiators to sidle towards phase two of Brexit talks.

Theresa May is already on her way to Brussels, where – according to an overnight statement from Mina Andreeva, deputy chief spokeswoman for Jean-Claude Juncker – she and the European commission president are “likely” to meet at 7am CET (6am GMT), with a press conference to follow.

The key stumbling block this week has been the question of the Irish border, with a near breakthrough stymied when it turned out Theresa May had not won the backing of her parliamentary partners, the DUP.

With a warning from the EU that progress needed to be made on an agreed text by – checks watch – today, and with a meeting of diplomats of the 27 member states scheduled for this evening, talks have continued through the night as Downing Street attempts to conjure a wording that will keep the DUP, Ireland and the EU on side.

The European council president, Donald Tusk, has already announced that he will be making a statement at 6.50am GMT/7.50am CET.

We’ll have it all here on the live blog as it happens. Come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.

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