Closing summary
We’re wrapping up the blog now after what has been one of the first quieter days of political news in what seems like some time.
Here are the main news stories from today:
- David Cameron has arrived for the Nato summit in Warsaw, pledging to increase Britain’s commitment to the bloc, including sending a battalion of troops to Estonia and more soldiers to Poland. The European council president, Donald Tusk, has said there could be serious geopolitical consequences of Brexit but it would not necessarily lead to further departures from the EU. “You won’t see on the screen the words: ‘To be continued.’”
- The business secretary, Sajid Javid, is holding preliminary talks with Indian government ministers in Delhi, marking the start of what is expected to be years of negotiations to establish new trade deals with individual countries. These bilateral deals will replace agreements the EU has with more than 50 countries.
- Britain’s decision to leave the EU has led the International Monetary Fund to slash its growth forecasts for the eurozone because of the risk of continuing market turmoil and Britain’s fall in exports. Prior to the referendum, the eurozone was forecast to grow 1.7% this year and next; that has now been cut to 1.6% in 2016 and 1.4% next year.
- The Tory leadership candidate Andrea Leadsom has provoked the ire of the Scottish National party after the BBC unearthed a 2007 blogpost in which she described Scotland as “heavily subsidised by the English”. Leadsom’s comments come a week after her now former leadership rival Michael Gove likewise queried Scotland’s funding formula at his campaign launch, saying there was a need to explore a “fairly funded” union “for our new circumstances”.
- The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is standing firm against any leadership challenge, saying in a piece for the Guardian that the time has come for the party to address the reasons behind the vote to leave the EU. The party must unite in order to play a role in Brexit negotiations, he said. Corbyn is meeting other European socialist leaders in Paris today “to discuss the refugee crisis and Europe’s future after Britain’s vote to leave”.
- Graham Jones, the former Labour whip, said the unions would “destroy the party” if they backed Corbyn, and Angela Eagle reiterated her threat to stand against him, though it is not expected to happen before the end of the weekend. Chuka Umunna, who earlier launched his pro-EU initiative, Vote Leave Watch, hinted that Labour MPs and the party might seek to implement a similar system to the Conservatives, whereby leadership candidates are narrowed down to a shortlist by MPs before members choose the final candidate.
- The recording of a speech by Neil Kinnock, the Labour leader who saw off a challenge from the left of the party, has been leaked after it was given to the private weekly meeting of Labour MPs on Monday night. It is said to have moved many MPs to tears as Kinnock declared there would be “no split” in the party he had been a member of for 60 years.
Updated
For the record, here are the exact figures on Labour party membership, says General Secretary Iain McNicol.
There has been a bit of speculation around @UKLabour membership so actual figures. 129,726 have joined since referendum. Total now 515,000.
— Iain McNicol (@IainMcNicol) July 8, 2016
John Mills, the businessman behind the Labour Leave campaign, has been speaking to reporters today, saying he believes there could be a “substantial realignment” of voting patterns unless there is an overhaul of Labour’s core message.
Mills used to be a substantial party donor but has not given anything since the election of Jeremy Corbyn. I’ve taken these quotes from the Press Association.
The Labour Party made a huge mistake in being as Europhile as it was. If a significant proportion of that 9 million desert the Labour Party because they don’t like its stance on the EU and then go off to Ukip - or whatever Ukip’s successor may be or the Conservatives or Greens or whoever - every seat with a majority of less than 5,000 becomes vulnerable and Labour could lose 100 seats.
This is a really existential threat to the Labour Party.
Labour had to be prepared to talk to people’s concerns over pressure on public services and border control, he said, saying the door was being left open to a populist “Donald Trump” type-figure.
I think there’s a real possibility that there’s going to be a substantial realignment in the political scene in this country, especially if nothing is done to satisfy these dissatisfied people.
The Trump phenomenon is really a reflection of what happened in the referendum, to some extent, and so is Podemos and so is Syriza and so is the Front National in France.
Unless the western world can somehow or other satisfy large numbers of its people that it can run the economy and the country in a way which is in their interests, I think you are going to finish up with this discontent.
If we are going to save liberal democracy, it’s very important that something is done to get it back on track again.
IMF slashes growth forecast for Eurozone
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has led the IMF to slash its growth forecasts because of the risk of continuing market turmoil and Britain’s fall in exports.
Prior to the EU referendum vote, the eurozone was forecast to grow 1.7% this year and next, now cut to 1.6% in 2016 and 1.4% next year.
Mahmood Pradhan, the deputy director of the IMF’s European department, told the Press Association it was “very early thinking and assessment... it’s very, very early days to have any strong sense of confidence.”
This is the full statement:
The markdowns for the euro area reflect likely weaker investor confidence on account of heightened uncertainty, greater financial market volatility, and lower import demand from the UK.
Given the euro area’s substantial weight in world trade, this slowdown would have spillovers to many other economies, including emerging markets, but the impact is expected to be limited.
Looking ahead, the risks to the outlook remain firmly on the downside and are mainly political. Uncertainty will persist as long as the UK’s new status vis-a-vis the EU is not clear.
Tory leadership candidate Andrea Leadsom has provoked the ire of the SNP after the BBC unearthed a 2007 blog, in which she described Scotland as “heavily subsidised by the English”.
"Unbelievable perks" for "our northern friends"&"another nail in the coffin of the Union". Leadsom blogs on Scotland pic.twitter.com/ilJTr2Rprz
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) July 8, 2016
Leadsom’s comments come a week after her now former leadership rival Michael Gove likewise queried Scotland’s funding formula at his campaign launch, saying that there was a need to explore a “fairly-funded” Union “for our new circumstances” – although Scotland’s fiscal framework was agreed by the UK Government after months of tortuous negotiations earlier this year.
The SNP’s Michael Russell MSP, convener of Holyrood’s Finance Committee, insisted: “It’s imperative that both leadership candidates now make it absolutely clear that they respect the fiscal framework signed up to by both the Scottish and UK Governments just a few months ago – and if they fail to do so, people in Scotland will be under no illusions as to what they have in store for our budget.”
Updated
NATO summit opens in Warsaw
The NATO summit is underway now, you can watch the livestream here.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is introducing the summit. He says the summit will agree to strengthen its presence on its eastern fringes and to step up its cyber and ballistic missile defence systems.
He says they will all take resources and states had made commitments to increase spending on defence.
Our security is at stake in a more dangerous world.
Polish president Andrzej Duda says he is proud Warsaw is hosting the summit, saying the bloc has come a long way in securing peace and stability.
The challenges we face affect the citizens of every single member state. The summit needs to bring stability in times of uncertainty, unity in times of division and ensure security in times of threat.
That’s the end of the public part of the meeting but Stolentberg will give a press conference at 18.40 local time (17.40 in the UK).
Updated
Labour’s Chuka Umunna, who launched his Vote Leave Watch initiative earlier today, has been speaking on BBC Radio 2 about his party’s current impasse.
He hinted Labour MPs and the party might seek to implement a similar system to the Conservatives, where candidates are narrowed down to a shortlist by MPs before members choose the final candidate. You can understand why, given how his party is so at odds with the membership over who should lead the party.
I’ll tell you one thing that a lot of people, Labour MPs, have been quite taken with is the system of narrowing down their candidates to two, so you end up with two candidates that the parliamentary party accept and they think are the best people to lead the party and become a future prime minister and that goes to the membership. I think that’s very interesting.
Umunna, who dropped out of the Labour leadership race last year after just a few days, citing concerns over the intrusion into his private life, said he would “never say never to taking up the opportunity to lead the party.”
There isn’t at the moment a vacancy and we’ve got to resolve a situation where you have a sitting leader who doesn’t command the confidence of the party and will not leave of his own volition.
He also said he was sceptical of the view that the thousands who have joined the party in recent weeks were signing up to vote for Corbyn, and said he believed it was more evenly split.
It seems from my own local experience that it’s pretty 50/50 and actually there’s a lot more people joining because they want Labour to become a governing force again than because they want to carry on with the status quo.
Updated
Front-line ban for women soldiers to be lifted, says Cameron
Number 10 has announced that it has accepted a recommendation General Sir Nick Carter, head of the army, that women should serve in close-combat ground roles.
“I agree with his advice and have accepted his recommendation,’ Cameron said in a statement, saying it would implemented as soon as possible.
It is vital that our armed forces are world-class and reflect the society we live in. Lifting this ban is a major step.
It will ensure the armed forces can make the most of all their talent and increase opportunities for women to serve in the full range of roles.
A great find here from Buzzfeed’s Jim Waterson - from the first time Theresa May stood against the Lib Dem’s Tim Farron.
Neither of them won, it was Hilary Armstrong who held the seat for Labour in North West Durham in the 1992 general election, increasing her majority. Farron picked up just over 6,000 votes.
All we need is a Hilary Armstrong coup and the 2020 general election can be a re-run of North West Durham in 1992. pic.twitter.com/pKNESaF6hf
— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) July 8, 2016
Armstrong served as chief whip under Tony Blair and later minister for social exclusion. She stood down at the 2010 general election and is now a Labour life peer.
For what it’s worth, her Lords’ contributions show Baroness Armstrong is consistently pro-Trident renewal, a Europhile and a member of the European Union committee in the Lords.
Updated
Graham Jones: Corbyn will go 'whether it takes five years, ten years'
After Corbyn hailed the 100,000-strong surge of new Labour members since the EU referendum, he left the parliamentary party in no doubt he had no intention of stepping down.
Outside her house where she is regularly doorstepped by reporters, Angela Eagle repeated her call this morning that Corbyn was “losing support in the country, he needs to do the right thing and if he doesn’t I will stand against him.”
But rebel MPs are holding off challenging Corbyn for the party’s leadership to allow talks with union leaders to continue.
One Labour source said last night that the moves against Corbyn were fast becoming known as “the mañana coup” (a phrase first coined by Duncan Weldon).
Graham Jones, the former Labour whip who resigned after Corbyn’s election, has been speaking on the BBC’s World at One. He said the unions would destroy the party if they backed Corbyn.
[Corbyn] is not a unity candidate, he doesn’t want to be a unity candidate. He just wants to agitate and cause problems and strife.
If the trade unions want to destroy the Labour party by supporting Jeremy Corbyn, then back him by all means but understand what comes next. A contest would be very destructive, it would start off a chain of events.
It will be a long battle, a series of battles that could go on for years. We desperately need a unity leader and I think the trade unions have to wake up and realise that.
MPs believe in the Labour party, they are here for the duration, they are not going to give it up.
Jones said the only future for the party was Corbyn’s resignation “whether it takes five years, ten years... whether that is at the end of a bloodbath or common sense prevails, eventually that will happen.”
He hinted more candidates may come forward next week to present themselves as party unifiers.
There will be a constant procession... whatever it takes until we have a unified candidate.
People are losing patience in Len McCluskey [Unite’s general secretary] to take the Labour movement forward.
We don’t want the 1980s again, we are desperate for a unity candidate, Jeremy has to walk.
Updated
Lunchtime summary
- David Cameron has arrived in Warsaw where he will seek to reassure Nato that the UK will be “steadfast” in its commitment to spending 2% of national income on defence, despite the vote to leave the EU. It is the maiden flight of his new £10m refitted prime ministerial plane, which he will use only a few times before Dave Force One is handed over to either Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom. The Home Secretary is in poll position for Number 10, but her rival, the energy minister may have grassroots appeal to the Tory voters who will decide the eventual winner
- In Poland, Cameron will announce that the UK will send a 500-member battalion to Estonia, with a further company of 150 troops to be stationed in Poland “on an enduring basis” as a show of strength against any Russia expansionist ambitions. Defence secretary Michael Fallon said this morning it was “a disappointment that we’re leaving the European Union” but said the UK would increase its dedication to Nato.
“Nato is the cornerstone of our defence... we’ll be doing more in Nato to compensate for our withdrawal from the EU.”
- Sir Julian King - currently Britain’s ambassador to France - has been nominated as the UK’s new European Commissioner. King is likely to be the UK’s last ever European Commissioner and will be interviewed by Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels on Monday, before a grilling by MEPs in the European Parliament.
Good role for a character actor as Julian King in "Last Train from Strasbourg", a gentle masterpiece (in posh cinemas 2030).
— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) July 8, 2016
- US president Barack Obama – also in Warsaw today for the Nato summit - has written in the Financial Times that Brexit “raises significant questions” about the future of Europe. Speaking alongside Obama at the opening of the summit, European council president Donald Tusk said there could be serious geopolitical consequences of Brexit but it would not necessarily lead to further exits from the bloc.
To all our opponents, on the inside and out, who are hoping for a sequel to Brexit, I want to say loud and clear: you won’t see on the screen the words: ‘To be continued.
- Business secretary Sajid Javid is holding preliminary talks with Indian government ministers in Delhi on Friday, marking the start of what is expected to be years of negotiations to establish new trade deals with individual countries. These bilateral deals will replace agreements the EU has with more than 50 countries.
- Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is standing firm against any leadership challenge, saying in a Guardian op-ed that the time has come for the party to address the reasons behind the vote to leave the EU. The party must unite in order to play a role in Brexit negotiations, he said. Corbyn is meeting other European socialist leaders in Paris today “to discuss the refugee crisis and Europe’s future after Britain’s vote to leave.”
If freedom of movement means the freedom to exploit cheap labour in a race to the bottom, it will never be accepted in any future relationship with Europe. But the reality is that we have allies in that cause across Europe, as on many other issues that will be at the heart of the negotiations ahead. Those negotiations cannot be left to a Tory government that does not speak for the country.
- The audio of a speech by Neil Kinnock, the Labour leader who saw off a leadership challenge from the left of the party, has been leaked after it was given to the private weekly meeting of Labour MPs on Monday night. It is said to have moved many MPs to tears. The Labour party has never been about the “revolutionary road” Kinnock says, it was always about “the parliamentary road to socialism”.
There will be no split, there will be no retreat. Damn them, this is our party, I have been here for 60 years, I’m not leaving it to anybody.
- A coalition of MPs have launched Vote Leave Watch, an unofficial spinoff from the remain campaign, led by Labour’s Chuka Umunna, who said the aim was to highlight the actions of pro-leave politicians who might seek to “wriggle out of the promises that they made to the electorate.”
If anger was in part driving some people to vote for us to leave the European Union, if they now find that all the things they were promised would happen in the event that we leave don’t happen, and they find themselves in a worse situation, they’re going to have an expectation that somebody’s held to account for that.
Updated
Cameron lands in Warsaw after maiden flight on Dave Force One
It has already been nicknamed Dave Force One. But David Cameron may only get to use his very own private plane a handful of times as he winds down his time as prime minister with a few last foreign trips.
Cameron looked relaxed as he boarded the refitted Voyager for its first outing to Poland on Friday, despite losing the EU referendum and announcing his resignation just a fortnight ago.
Breakfast on the new Dave Force One en route to Warsaw... Not overly swanky pic.twitter.com/t35rRzo3Wu
— Rowena Mason (@rowenamason) July 8, 2016
The aircraft spent months being converted from a military plane to VIP passenger carrier at a cost of 12m but still bears Royal Air Force branding on the outside.
On the inside, it looked very much like any old plane run by a major airline. There were budget seats for political advisers, military personnel and the press pack at the back and bigger business class seats for the prime minister, cabinet ministers and their closest aides at the front.
As the flight took off, a beige curtain was drawn to separate the two sections.
Less luxurious than some of the private planes Cameron has chartered in the past, there was no champagne or other alcohol in sight for the early morning flight from Heathrow. Neither did any of the seats have television screens.
Passengers were served with orange juice and hot drinks only, along with a standard cooked breakfast, croissant and jam, plus a fruit salad.
Downing Street insists the new travel arrangements will be cheaper in the long run than hiring aircraft each time the prime minister goes on tour or attends foreign summits. It will also be available to members of the royal family and senior cabinet ministers for official trips.
But by that time, it may have been renamed Air Force Theresa or Andrea.
Updated
Cameron’s plane has landed in Warsaw and the reviews are in from the press pack for the £10m converted RAF Voyager A330. It serves a full English, but it has no inflight TVs.
PM's new private plane has touched down in Warsaw... First and could be last time he will get to enjoy it pic.twitter.com/XVY4igLohv
— Rowena Mason (@rowenamason) July 8, 2016
The Sun’s Tom Newton-Dunn was also on the maiden voyage, as was the Mirror’s Ben Glaze, who has reviewed the taxpayer-funded leg-room onboard in this extensive piece.
Cam Force One's virgin flight to Warsaw. PM, Foreign and Defence Secs disembark. The big surprise, no in-flight TVs. pic.twitter.com/jRotHF2EOW
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) July 8, 2016
Updated
Tusk: We will see no more departures from the EU
Barack Obama has been giving a press conference at the Nato summit in Warsaw alongside Jean-Claude Juncker and European council president Donald Tusk, though the US president’s mind is clearly elsewhere after the tragedy unfolding in Dallas Texas, where five police officers have been shot dead after an anti-police violence protest.
Obama, who wrote an op-ed this morning for the FT on Brexit, said there was a lesson that”governments, including the EU cannot be remote institutions.”
They have to be responsive and move more quickly with minimal bureaucracy to deliver real economic progress in the lives of ordinary people.
Tusk says that the “geopolitical consequences” of Brexit could be serious ones, and said it was Europe and the US who are “taking care of the unity of the Western political community, and that is key.”
As sad and meaningful as [Brexit] is, is just an incident, and not the beginning of a process.
To all our opponents, on the inside and out, who are hoping for a sequel to Brexit, I want to say loud and clear: you won’t see on the screen the words: ‘To be continued.’
King is to be interviewed for the EU commissioner post on Monday in Brussels at 11am, Juncker’s office has said.
“The purpose of the interview will be to determine the candidate’s ability to serve as a European Commissioner, particularly in light of Article 17 (3) of the Treaty of the European Union which states that: “The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond all doubt,” the release said.
The European Parliament will also “audition” the candidate, the officer said, but they do not have a veto. Juncker is only obliged to “seriously consider” the results of the consultation with Parliament before giving his accord to the Council over the suitability of Hill’s appointment.
Lord Hill’s finance brief has now been assigned to the commission’s vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis of Latvia, in effect from July 16.
CORRECTION: I originally said Dombrovskis was from Malta, but he is Latvian.
Updated
Sir Julian King nominated as the UK's new European Commissioner
David Cameron has nominated Sir Julian King - currently Britain’s ambassador to France - as the UK’s new European Commissioner, Downing Street has announced.
King had been tipped to replace Lord Hill, who resigned post-Brexit. He is likely to be the UK’s last ever European Commissioner but Jean-Claude Juncker and Cameron agreed last week that Hill’s replacement should serve until the UK formally leaves the EU.
The career diplomat, who was chief of staff to Peter Mandelson when he was British trade commissioner, will have to be confirmed by the European Parliament, which could be a rocky ride. But he has plenty of experience in Brussels, including serving under Catherine Aston when she succeeded Mandelson.
It will be up to Juncker to decide which portfolio to give King on the commission, but Politico reports Cameron is keen for King to be in charge of environment policy. His predecessor Lord Hill held the finance brief.
French MEP Alain Lamassoure, told the website King should not have a portfolio.
He will have to behave according to the fact that he is tied to a government of a country that is leaving. It is going to be a commissioner without a portfolio.
Updated
Conservativehome, the influential conservative website has backed Theresa May for leadership of the party.
Now a choice of two women – May or Leadsom. The latter’s time may come. But it is not now. For the sake of Britain and Brexit, for a manageable Commons and the country’s future – not to mention restoring orderly government as soon as possible – we hope that Party members vote for the former.
Paul Goodman, the site’s editor says readers who backed Brexit should know May is the only candidate who could effectively deliver a workable solution to leaving the EU, with Leadsom likely to face a backlash in the Commons.
May has said that “Brexit is Brexit”. In other words, there is no difference between the two candidates in terms of their aim. Some doubt that she means it.... It may just be that these critics are right; it’s far more likely that they are wrong.
This is not only because May, though as capable of being tricksy as any other politician, is straighter than many of them, but because she will know the consequences of backsliding. With a majority of only a dozen or so, her Government would fall.
Goodman calls a potential win for Leadsom “a Jeremy Corbyn victory... she would already have been rejected by MPs, twice as many of whom would have voted for her opponent.”
Only May now has the capacity, with the backing of MPs and hopefully Party members behind her, to cajole, wheedle, plead, threaten and charm the Remain-backing majority of Tory MPs to back a coherent Brexit plan.
Goodman says it is vital Leadsom remains in the campaign nonetheless.
Our recent survey and a YouGov poll suggested that she is picking up support. But even if she and her team believe that victory is impossible, we urge them to campaign on for the Party’s and, more importantly, the country’s sake.
If the Remain-backing May is to be the next Party leader, she needs the legitimacy that can only come from winning a full leadership contest fair and square – a point she grasps very well.
Updated
Exports fell in May as UK trade gap widens
New figures from the Office for National Statistics released this morning show the UK’s trade deficit on goods expanded to £9.9 billion, a sharper fall in exports than imports.
But it is the case that British exports are likely to rise in the short-term, because of the fall in sterling (a 31-year low) which makes UK goods cheaper for overseas buyers.
It’s not certain though, according to IHS’ chief European economist Howard Archer, who told the Press Association:
There is no guarantee that the markedly weakened pound will provide a major boost to UK exports. Furthermore, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union will likely dampen European growth and could also very well have some global impact, which will hamper UK exports.
Just in time for him to leave office, David Cameron is taking his first trip on his new plane, the so-called ‘Dave Force One’ or ‘Camcord’, to the Nato summit in Warsaw.
The converted RAF Voyager plane will take off with Cameron, as well as Philip Hammond and Michael Fallon to Poland, is based on the Airbus A330 airliner and refitted at a cost of £10 million to provide transport for ministers and members of the Royal Family.
The Mirror has been told the interior is not lavish. While there are “plush seats down the back”, an RAF source told the paper it is “more along the lines of first class Virgin or BA than like Air Force One looks like on TV... It isn’t as one might imagine - all red carpet etc.”
There will be plenty of hacks on board too, so we’ll hear more later about the in-flight food and entertainment.
But once the PM is gone in September, it will need a new name. The Mayflyer? That’s all I’ve got..
Business secretary Sajid Javid is in India today, the start of a world tour which is wasting no time to start talks about the bilateral trade deals which will, post-Brexit, replace agreements the EU has with more than 50 countries.
Just finished meeting with Tata Steel in Mumbai. Now off to Delhi for talks on UK/India #trade
— Sajid Javid (@sajidjavid) July 8, 2016
Indian conglomerate Tata, which owns Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Steel, is currently trying to find a buyer for the British steel business, but my colleague Rob Davies reports the sale process has been put on hold amid the economic uncertainty created by the vote to leave the EU.
Meetings in the US, China, Japan and South Korea are also lined up over the next few months.
Neil Kinnock: 'This is our party, I've been here 60 years, I'm not leaving it to anybody'
Neil Kinnock, the Labour leader who saw off a leadership challenge from the left of the party, gave a “barnstorming” speech to the weekly meeting of Labour MPs on Monday night, which moved some to tears.
This is the full audio, tweeted by filmmaker Ben Ferguson after it was recorded from inside the private meeting.
Heard about Neil Kinnock's 'barnstorming' speech? In it's full, crappy audio glory, here it is: https://t.co/2Qqd1muXSV
— Ben Ferguson (@FergusonBen) July 7, 2016
Here are some of the best lines, but do listen to the whole thing.
There are some people who are incapable of learning from the instructions of reality. So they better wake up.
He says it is not true Jeremy Corbyn has the biggest mandate from members.
I don’t know what case is being made by saying that Jeremy had the biggest majority in history. He didn’t. In 1988, in a different electoral system admittedly, my majority against Tony Benn was 88.6%.
Tony got 11.6%, with the assistance of Denis [Skinner] of course, and the assistance of Jeremy Corbyn of course. No talk of unity or loyalty...
The Labour party has never been about the “revolutionary road” Kinnock says, it was always about “the parliamentary road to socialism”.
It is vital, essential, irreplaceable that the leader has substantial support from those who go to the country and seek to become lawmakers.
When people join the Labour party, they are joining a party committed to the parliamentary road and that makes it crucial to have a leader with majority support of the parliamentary Labour party.
Damn them, this is our party, I have been here for 60 years, I’m not leaving it to anybody.
These are some of the tweets from Monday night after that speech.
It would appear that Neil Kinnock is going to save the Labour Party for the second time in my lifetime. @UKLabour #SavingLabour
— Jamie Reed (@jreedmp) July 4, 2016
Neil Kinnock is a hero. A barnstorming speech tonight.
— Wes Streeting MP (@wesstreeting) July 4, 2016
Kinnock moved Lab MPs to tears just now by reminding them in 1918 Labour chose the parliamentary route to power not the revolutionary road!
— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 4, 2016
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson is backing Theresa May as the next Tory leader, describing her as “someone who can unite the country and the party”,
While praising Andrea Leadsom’s “guts” in putting her name forward, Davidson told BBC’s Newsnight programme that “in terms of the person who’s got the steel for the job, who can go eyeball to eyeball with Angela Merkel, and indeed Nicola Sturgeon, it can only be Theresa May.”
She also said that she believed May should offer a guarantee to EU nationals living in the UK.
I’ve publicly said that I think she should make that guarantee. I think she knows that if she takes on this role she’s got a lot of work to do in ensuring Brits abroad are being looked after, but I think the person in that role should be able to say irrespective of that that [EU nationals in the UK] should stay.
Asked specifically about Leadsom’s comments on gay marriage, and her own forthcoming marriage, Newsnight’s James O’Brien asked bluntly whether she wanted to be part of a party “led by a woman who is unhappy about the fact that you can marry your fiance in a church?”
Davidson responded: “Well this is my party and I’ve very happy that there are people who have been huge proponents of [gay marriage], like Theresa May.”
I don’t know Andrea Leadsom very well. I think she said it was something to do with her faith. As a woman of faith myself who has talked openly about my Christianity and some of the difficulties that I have had in my past having to reconcile my faith and my sexuality I know that it can take some people some time to do that.
She added that “whoever becomes prime minster they will get an invitation to my wedding”.
Updated
Good morning, I’m Jessica Elgot taking over from Claire Phipps this morning. You can reach me in the comments below (as with Andrew Sparrow, I’ll have more chance of spotting it if you mention me by name if you’ve got a query) or on twitter on @jessicaelgot.
Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, has been speaking to BBC’s Radio 4 Today programme in the last hour about the Nato summit in Warsaw today.
He is asked about the deployment of 500 UK troops to Estonia and 150 to Poland, and whether it looks like ‘a new Cold War’
No, Nato is a defensive alliance, these are measures to reassure those countries on the eastern side, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, that we are ready to come to their assistance. They are not there to be aggressive to anyone.
He does not agree it is a worsening of relations with Russia.
There are plenty of areas of the world we want to work with Russia, we did over the deal with Iran, we are trying to work with Russia in bringing the war in Syria to an end.
But we can’t forget what happened that Russia tried to change international borders by force [in Ukraine] and that has destabilised countries on the eastern side. This is the kind of reassurance they’ve been seeking.
Fallon says he will try to reassure leaders about the UK’s internationalism post-Brexit.
It isn’t fine, it’s a disappointment that we’re leaving the European Union. But Nato is the cornerstone of our defence... we’ll be doing more in Nato to compensate for our withdrawal from the EU. That’s the purpose of the deployment we’re announcing today.
We’re working hard, the chancellor and others, to make sure we stabilise the economy and we may see a pause of investment... but the defence budget is going up, it went up for the first time in six years in April, and committed to increasing every year of this parliament.
He says that it “maybe so” that it becomes easier to meet the 2% GDP target on defence spending set by Nato if the economy shrinks. He says more announcements will be made at the Farnborough airshow about new defence spending.
Let’s not talk ourselves down, we’re committed to spending more on our defence.
What will Fallon say to defence ministers at Nato about the prospect of a “complete novice” [Andrea Leadsom] being prime minister? (He is backing May).
Obviously, I’m a supporter of Theresa May because at this point, she has the experience, the track record to take the country forward now. I’m not going to knock her opponent but I’ve worked with Theresa May on security day in and day out.
She’s already a member of the security council. I’ve seen her deal with crisis, I’ve seen her chair COBRA, and she is committed to keeping this country safe.
Someone at the Nato summit in Warsaw has a sense of humour. Or there’s a security flaw. I’m sure it’s the first. Got to be.
Wifi options at the NATO Summit... pic.twitter.com/y3HQjCGp1j
— Alistair Bunkall (@AliBunkallSKY) July 8, 2016
US president Barack Obama – in Warsaw today for the Nato summit alongside David Cameron – has written in the Financial Times that Brexit “raises significant questions” about the future of Europe. But he adds:
As difficult as it will be, I am confident that the UK and the EU will be able to agree on an orderly transition to a new relationship, as all our countries stay focused on ensuring financial stability and growing the global economy. And, while the relationship between the UK and the EU will change, it is worth remembering what will not change.
The special relationship between the US and the UK will endure. I have no doubt that the UK will remain one of Nato’s most capable members – a nation that pays its full share for our common security and is a leading contributor to alliance missions. And, given the current threats facing Europe, I fully expect that Britain will continue to be a major contributor to European security.
As the National launched in Scotland to speak to the 45% who voted to leave the United Kingdom, today sees a fresh newspaper aiming to grab the 48% who voted not to leave the EU: the New European.
It is, undeniably, a tough time to launch a new newspaper – New Day folded after just two months.
the first front page of a new national UK newspaper. doesn't happen every day. #tomorrowspaperstoday #theneweuropean pic.twitter.com/Rr9SAhJWc5
— ((( Matt Kelly ))) (@mk1969) July 7, 2016
Jeremy Corbyn’s column in the Guardian today addresses what he sees to be the reasons behind the vote to leave the EU:
To bring the country back together, we have to understand what lay behind the narrow majority to leave. Part of it was clearly about the impact of immigration on a deregulated jobs market and investment-starved housing and public services.
But leave voters were also concentrated in former industrial areas hit hardest by low pay, job insecurity and economic stagnation. In fact, Labour-supporting cities that voted remain, such as London, Bristol and Manchester, have far higher migrant populations than many that backed leave.
The difference is that the latter are areas that have benefited least from a lopsided economic recovery. This was a vote by the people of left-behind Britain against a political establishment that has failed them.
He says he will meet this week with “fellow European socialist leaders” in Paris “to discuss the refugee crisis and Europe’s future after Britain’s vote to leave”.
During the Nato summit in Warsaw today, David Cameron will announce that hundreds more British troops are to be deployed to eastern Europe as part of a show of strength by Nato in the face of an increasingly assertive Russia.
The UK will send a 500-member battalion to Estonia, with a further company of 150 troops to be stationed in Poland “on an enduring basis”.
Ahead of the trip, Cameron said:
This summit is a chance for us to reiterate our strong support for Ukraine and our other Eastern allies to deter Russian aggression.
Actions speak louder than words and the UK is proud to be taking the lead role, deploying troops across eastern Europe. It is yet another example of the UK leading in Nato, as underlined by our pledge to spend 2% of GDP on defence for the rest of this decade.
With a battalion commitment to Estonia as part of Nato’s enhanced forward presence, a company group in Poland and UK command of the very high readiness taskforce – which will involve committing 3,000 British troops – as well as our continued commitment to Baltic air patrols throughout 2017, Britain is clearly demonstrating its crucial contribution to Nato.
Morning
Good morning and welcome to our daily politics live blog. I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Jessica Elgot steps in. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
The big picture
So, it’s Theresa May v Andrea Leadsom in the fight to be the next prime minister, and as a result the talk today is all about Margaret Thatcher. Because – stay with me – she was a woman. And May and Leadsom are also women.
It’s not nothing, of course, that the UK will have its second female prime minister. As Tim Loughton, Leadsom’s campaign manager, put it:
We can now give the party a real choice. A remain woman; a leave woman. They both happened to go to state schools. They are both women.
(He also added that this was “pretty quirky for the Tory party”, which is a shame, really, given that female + state-educated = the majority of the population.)
But is it obligatory for either of them to be the new Thatcher? Have a look at their track records – I was going to say CVs but that’s a whole different question – instead. Maybe there’s more to it than a chromosome and a blouse.
With more votes than her two rivals combined, May steps into the next couple of months – sorry, yes, months – of campaigning with the confidence of knowing the bulk of her parliamentary colleagues are behind her. For as we know, there’s often little to choose between the views of MPs and the views of party members…
What happens next? Here’s a guide to how the voting process works, but in a nutshell: the 150,000 members of the Conservative party each have a vote, and the winner is announced as prime minister on 9 September. Take that, unelected EU bureaucrats!
Boris Johnson, his dreams of traversing the country in support of his own No 10 bid now more tattered that than £350m NHS promise, is expected instead to tub-thump for his new favourite, Leadsom. He wasn’t, however, on hand yesterday for what could qualify as the least comfortable (and I don’t mean footwear: all mention of footwear in connection with the Tory leadership is banned on this blog) political march seen in a long while: the Rally for Leadsom.
Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers looked particularly thrilled to be there:
And what of Michael Gove, erstwhile scourge of teachers and longstanding friends? As Marina Hyde points out, he has at least scored his long professed goal of not being prime minister. Now we will never know if he truly was, as he told us, “constitutionally incapable of it”. Still, perhaps we’ve had our fill of constitutional upheavals this year.
Gove is “naturally disappointed” not to have made the cut, he told reporters. Although now she’s not busy campaigning for her husband, we might be blessed with more details in Sarah Vine’s next Daily Mail column.
Which takes us seamlessly – in format, if not in content – to Jeremy Corbyn’s column in the Guardian this morning.
The Labour leader writes about the 100,000-strong surge in members signing up to join the party since the vote to leave the EU – taking membership to more than 500,000, the largest number in modern party history. As political editor Heather Stewart reports, we can’t know (and won’t until if/when there is ever that rumoured challenge) whether the boost has come from Corbyn-keepers or would-be ousters:
The Keep Corbyn campaign, coordinated by the grassroots group Momentum, believes the bulk of new members would back Corbyn in a challenge; but a rival Saving Labour campaign has been signing up members of the public who want him to stand down.
Corbyn, for one, sounds confident:
MPs also need to respect the democracy of our party and the views of Labour’s membership, which has increased by more than 100,000 to over half a million in the past fortnight alone – by far the largest it has ever been in modern times.
Our priority must now be to mobilise this astonishing new force in politics, and ensure people in Britain have a real political alternative. Those who want to challenge my leadership are free to do so in a democratic contest, in which I will be a candidate.
But the responsibility of our whole party is to stand up in united opposition to the Tory government. If we come together, we can take them on and win.
Perhaps we are now due a quieter spell: Corbyn’s off on holiday, David Cameron’s off to the Nato summit, and the Tory leadership contenders are off to win over the members. Presumably somebody is minding the country.
Does anyone have a Brexit plan yet?
Oh yes, that. Oona King, in a short debate in the House of Lords yesterday, thinks there ought to be a re-run of the referendum, arguing:
Many British people, possibility the majority, were unaware of the far-reaching consequences of the EU referendum … After the dust has settled in the immediate aftermath of the referendum vote, we don’t actually know what we voted for.
Nato leaders meeting Cameron in Warsaw today might also have a few questions along those lines, with Brexit likely to be a matter for concern, according to one official:
How can it not affect western cohesion? How can trillions being wiped out in market value not affect perceptions of western strength?
You should also know:
- More revelations continue to emerge from the Chilcot report as its 12 volumes are read: see the latest here.
-
Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, said the US decision to clear out Ba’athist from the Iraqi army led to the rise of Isis.
- David Cameron will seek to reassure Nato over UK’s defence spending commitments.
- Business minister Sajid Javid opens preliminary trade talks with India.
- Overseas buyers ‘keen to exploit weak pound to buy London homes’.
- Vote Leave Watch aims to hold MPs to account over Brexit promises.
Diary
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David Cameron, still just about the prime minister, flies to Poland for the Nato summit in Warsaw.
- From 2pm the Church of England General Synod meets and will have a debate on Brexit.
Read these
In the Times, Philip Collins argues that May’s victory in the vote “was so overwhelming that the contest should be stopped”:
There are 84 Conservative MPs, people actually paid out of public funds to conduct politics, who believe that Andrea Leadsom should be prime minister. Somebody as smart as former leader Michael Howard should be ashamed of himself …
It is, in any case, a democratic outrage that the next prime minister will be chosen by the 0.3% of the electorate who happen to be odd enough to be members of the Conservative party. Can any of them, I wonder, see the irony of their regular sermons about the lack of ‘democracy’ in the EU? Probably not. These are people who have taken hold of the wrong end of the stick in order to beat the country with it. The candidate of their looking-glass world is the wholly ill-prepared Mrs Leadsom.
In the Spectator, Ross Clark wonders why the all-female shortlist isn’t being lauded as a win for feminism (editorialising alert: feminism doesn’t in fact mean agreeing with anything any woman ever does. Though, hey: feel free to disagree with me):
So now it is certain: the Conservatives will produce Britain’s second female prime minister … So why isn’t the left cheering this social advance? Instead, the bitching has already begun. Andrea Leadsom is being savaged for being less than 100% enthusiastic about gay marriage (bizarrely, she voted for and against in the same vote); while Theresa May is eviscerated for her proposal – since dropped – to withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights.
Laurie Penny in the New Statesman says we ask the wrong questions about women in power:
The truth is that women are not, in fact, magic. Women are, in fact, people, and people who happen to be female are no less complicated and unpredictable than those who happen to be male. Women have just as much capacity to be venal, petty and egomaniacal as men do, although they are less likely to be indulged in such behaviour …
It remains to be seen if the situation for women throughout the country will be made any better by women in Westminster. Poor and vulnerable men, after all, have not historically been guaranteed a good deal just because they shared a gender with their political leaders. Gender equality, like wealth, tends not to trickle down.
Baffling nickname of the day
I’m going to make a wild guess here and assert that Theresa May has never gone by the name of “Tezza”:
Here is tomorrow's front page: Britain is guaranteed to have its second woman Prime Minister pic.twitter.com/LaOJIF997U
— The Sun (@TheSun) July 7, 2016
Celebrity endorsement of the day
Does Nigel Farage count as a celebrity these days? He’ll need something to do once he’s replaced as Ukip leader and out of work as an MEP. Anyway, he’s terribly pleased that Andrea Leadsom could be in No 10.
Congratulations to @andrealeadsom. Important the next Prime Minister is a Brexiteer - she has my backing.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) July 7, 2016
If today were a Beyoncé song
It would be Run the World (Girls). But only because there isn’t a song entitled Women Make Up Half the World’s Population, Stop Being Surprised When Some of Them are Allowed to be in Charge of Things.
And another thing
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