There’s a Really Simple Reason Behind the Nuggets’ Playoff Collapse

The Nuggets were sent home early by the Timberwolves for the second season in a row. Denver dropped its opening-round series against Minnesota in six games, while looking completely out of sorts for most of it. There’s one simple reason for that.

During the regular season, the Nuggets led the NBA in offensive rating at 121.2, and averaged a league-high 122.1 points per game. Somehow, the team's offense went missing in the postseason.

A big part of that success was their three-point shooting. Denver led the league by hitting 39.6% of its shots from behind the arc, nearly a full point better than the second-place Bucks (38.7%). Moreover, the Nuggets led the NBA in wide-open three-point percentage (42.8%), more than two points higher than the Hornets (40.5%), who were second. Neither of those numbers held against the Timberwolves.

The Nuggets hit just 31.1% of their three-point shots against Minnesota, which was third-worst in the first round. On wide-open threes, their percentage dropped to 32.1%, which would have been dead last during the regular season.

Lev Akabas of Sportico put together a fantastic piece of data viz showing just how dramatic the drop-off was.

The Denver Nuggets were the best 3-point shooting team in the regular season by far

They shot 32.1% on wide open 3s in the first round, which would have been last in the NBA by far

The Wolves shot 44.7%, which would have been first in the NBA by far pic.twitter.com/PO6m3Kq8mr
— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) May 1, 2026

It's worth noting that Denver averaged 32.2 attempts per game in the postseason, which was down from 35.8 in the regular season. So the Nuggets shot fewer threes, and made a far lower percentage of them.

That disparity explains how Denver’s offensive rating went from 121.2 during the regular season to 108.2 in the playoffs. That is a massive drop in efficiency.

While the Timberwolves’ active defense likely had a lot to do with the Nuggets’ offensive demise, it doesn’t explain it all. There’s no reason for players to shoot that much worse on wide-open shots.

Perhaps the poster child for this phenomenon was Jamal Murray, who only hit 27.8% of his wide open threes against Minnesota, after nailing 47.7% during the regular season. Nikola Jokić hit 20.0% of his open threes in the playoffs, as opposed to 48.4% during the regular season. Even Cameron Johnson, a three-point specialist, struggled. He hit 28.6% of his wide-open threes against Minnesota, after nailing 45.8% during the regular season. Those are remarkable numbers.

It’s possible the series had the Nuggets rattled and they were rushing. Or maybe they were worn down after a long season. Whatever the explanation is, it was a shockingly bad offensive performance, led mostly by an awful shooting streak.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves couldn’t miss

That failure was compounded by the Timberwolves shooting the lights out. Minnesota hit 39.1% of its wide-open threes during the regular season, but jacked the number up to 44.7% against Denver. Minnesota’s hot shooting in the series would have been the best number in the league during the regular season.

The team’s collective hot shooting more than made up for the absence of Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo and Ayo Dosunmu.

It remains to be seen whether this was just a hot six-game stretch for Minnesota or if it’s a new trend. The Spurs will be much more difficult to score against than the Nuggets were. Just ask Jaden McDaniels.

Against Denver, the Timberwolves caught fire from deep, while the Nuggets couldn’t buy a bucket.

More NBA from Sports Illustrated

This article was originally published on www.si.com as There’s a Really Simple Reason Behind the Nuggets’ Playoff Collapse.

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