SACRAMENTO, Calif. _ By the time California's primary election day arrives in June, it's possible the state will be very close to having 20 million registered voters _ a milestone that state elections officials reported last week is within sight.
But the history of modern California politics suggests as many as two-thirds of those Californians won't vote next month. That's a civic dilemma, but there's also a good chance the no-shows will affect one party's candidates in some for Congress differently from all others.
Presidential elections, like the one coming up in 2020, entice voters to cast ballots. The primary in an off-year election such as 2018, even with an important race for governor, doesn't capture the public's attention.
No primary for governor has attracted even 35 percent of registered voters since 2002. The last time that a majority of California's electorate showed up for a non-presidential primary was 1982. Four years ago, turnout hit an all-time low of 25 percent.
A safe bet is that only about 6 million votes will be cast in next month's election _ the kind of apathy made even more remarkable by the fact that so many ballots are now sent through the mail. Millions of them may just sit on kitchen tables, never to be cast.
The problem is among subgroups of California voters. It turns out that Republicans are usually among the most reliable. Research by Political Data, a company that partners with candidates and campaigns from both major parties, suggests that the statewide advantage for Democrats could drop by as much as 3 percentage points in June.
The analysis shows even greater danger for the state's most powerful party in the battleground congressional districts currently represented by Republicans.
In the Central Valley district of Republican Rep. David Valadao, Democrats have a 17-point registration advantage. But if the models are right, that could drop to less than 6 points among those who vote next month.
The shifting fortunes are even more notable in two Southern California districts where Republican incumbents are retiring. In the race to replace Orange County Rep. Ed Royce, there are six Democrats and seven Republicans appearing on the ballot. In overall registration, there are only about 3,800 more Republican voters than Democrats in the district. But turnout models that use past non-presidential primaries suggest there could be 15,000 more Republican ballots cast in June _ a huge leg up, especially in a district where Democrats already fear being shut out of the November election.
A similarly outsize Repbulican electorate could show up to the south in the race to succeed Vista Rep. Darrell Issa, thwarting Democratic plans.
A large part of the story is the disappearance of unaffiliated "independent" voters in primaries. The research suggests as many as 3.5 million of them might skip the primaries. And because most of them lean Democratic (they are not nonpartisan, just loosely partisan), that's another boost for Republicans.
That indifference seems especially significant when you consider that California's top-two primary _ in which political parties don't limit participation _ was custom-built for independents.
