The spread of the novel coronavirus has not slowed in 24 states, according to a new model by Imperial College London that forecasts infection spikes as more people travel and leave their homes in the coming weeks.
Why it matters: Nearly every state across the U.S. has taken steps to reopen their economies partially or completely, including some regions and industries that are deemed "low-risk" for spreading the virus, per a New York Times analysis.
What they found: Texas, Arizona, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio are at the highest risk in the college's model — which has not yet been peer-reviewed — followed by Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, Alabama and Wisconsin.
- The researchers predict that deaths over the next two months could exceed the current national death toll by more than two-fold, if transmissions continue to rise as less social distancing is enforced.
- They emphasize that rapid testing, contact tracing and behavioral precautions are crucial to slow the spread.
Where it stands: U.S. counties most recently identified as having a high prevalence of coronavirus cases — or at least 100 cases per 100,000 people — tend to be in the South and Midwest, Axios' Caitlin Owens reports.
- But, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, Indiana and Iowa have seen a slight decrease in cases within the last week.
Between the lines: Fauci noted at a CNN town hall on Thursday that he has "a little skepticism about models," as they "are subject to the suppositions and the assumptions you put into them."
- This study does not account for contract tracing, wearing masks, mass testing or changes to workplace or transit systems to accommodate the virus.
- Fauci has advised states that are reopening "to be on the alert" for "little blips" of infections as stay-at-home restrictions are lifted across the U.S.
Go deeper: Coronavirus cases are on the rise across the South
