Newcastle have a 41% chance of going down - and are now favourites to join near certainties West Brom and Sheffield United.
That is according to the statistical model of Five ThirtyEight, which uses a complex algorithm to predict how the season is going to pan out. Based on probable results between now and the end of the season they have United on 37 points - level with Fulham - but going down by virtue of goal difference.
It is the first time United have swung into the bottom three in the model, emphasising how much of a game changer this weekend's results might end up being.
Newcastle's 0-0 draw at West Brom split opinion, with some seeing the point as a valuable one and Steve Bruce saying it was crucial they did not lose. Others saw it as a missed opportunity, which certainly became the case when Fulham shocked Liverpool by winning at Anfield.
Five ThirtyEight has Fulham with a 31% chance of going down and Burnley and Brighton on 12%. Palace have a 3% chance while Southampton are down with a 1% chance. Bruce said last week "six or seven teams are looking over their shoulder" but the stats suggest not.
Newcastle are favoured to win just one more game - against Sheffield United - and are 17% to beat Brighton and 21% to beat Fulham.
The model is based on a rating that is handed to teams based on their attacking performance and defensive performance, calculated via their performances to date.
That would suggest United either neither to change tack - Sunday's draw was lacking in ambition - or do something more drastic to change the momentum of the season.
Newcastle are showing no sign of wavering in their support for Steve Bruce, even with two wins in 18 matches.
