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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
David Myers

The week in betting: Chelsea vs Manchester Utd

For the purists there is only one match of importance in the Premier League this weekend when Chelsea host Manchester United on Sunday afternoon.

At first glance, the visitors look decent value at 12/5, as it's not often punters get a chance to back United at those sort of odds. But, their record at Chelsea in all competitions since 1999/2000 is poor: in 11 capital clashes during this period, Fergie has only left victorious once, with Chelsea emerging best on six occasions. Anyone looking to double their money this week won't find a better opportunity than Chelsea at evens.

The other interesting price in the Premier League this weekend is the 3/1 on offer about Arsenal scoring in the first 10 minutes at Wolves on Saturday. In their current form, they should be out the traps fast.

Arsenal also feature in the midweek Champions League when they host AZ Alkmaar (12/1) on Wednesday at short odds of 3/20, while on the same night, the unpredictable Liverpool (17/10) travel to Lyon (27/20), who turned them over at Anfield.

It's anyone's guess which Liverpool will turn up – the one that beat Manchester United a fortnight ago, or the limp outfit that lost 3-1 at Fulham at the weekend. But with Steven Gerrard again crocked, the French side look a good bet to repeat the dose.

Tuesday sees Manchester United (7/20) face an easy task at home to CSKA Moscow (15/2), but Chelsea (5/6) have a stiffer tie at Atletico Madrid (14/5). The Spaniards have yet to score in the group stage so far – conceding six goals – while Chelsea boast the opposite. With Didier Drogba returning from suspension, Chelsea win either 1-0 (6/1) or 2-0 (8/1).

The Europa League takes over on Thursday when Hamburg (9/20) will be looking to do the double over a weak Celtic side (23/4), while Everton will want revenge against Benfica, who knocked five past the Toffees a fortnight ago.

The bet for me, however, is for Fulham (4/1) to score in the second-half at Roma, who they beat 1-0 in the home tie. Roma (3/5) have only kept a clean sheet once in 18 matches this term, and the Cottagers can pounce when the cracks appear in the second half at 7/5.

It's that time of the year when Europe sends over its best horses to challenge America's finest in the Breeders' Cup – held again this year at Santa Anita in California on Friday and Saturday. This venue resulted in Europe's greatest Breeders' Cup evening in terms of numbers 12 months ago with five victories, and they can strike gold again with a strong team.

Heading them is Aidan O'Brien's Rip Van Winkle, who has come off worse against the mighty Sea The Stars twice this season, but could now have his biggest day in the Breeders' Cup Classic. His trainer certainly knows how to win at this fixture with three previous successes and Rip Van Winkle can be his fourth at 15/8.

At shorter odds, Goldikova (10/11) will be bidding to follow up last years' victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and it will be a brave punter to take her on as she has been in sparkling form again this season, and can emulate her compatriot, Miesque, with back-to-back victories.

When I saw a man-mountain of a Russian boxer fight for the Heavyweight Championship in Rocky IV during the eighties, I never thought I'd see it for real one day – what odds would've been offered back in 1985?

Britain's David Haye (4/7) is the unfortunate man in Rocky's shoes on Saturday night when coming face-to-face with the 7ft Russian giant, Nikolai Valuev (7/5) in what is being dubbed 'David vs Goliath'.

Although Haye is a class act and will no doubt give the Russian a hard night, he will have to concede too much weight, which could be the telling factor.

Valuev has never been knocked out in 52 fights and I can't see it happening here, so I think he'll take it on points – something he has done in his last five fights, and Sportingbet generously offer 7/2.

Elsewhere, the rugby union heavyweights will also be slugging it out on Saturday when England face Australia at Twickenham, while Wales entertain New Zealand.

Despite England's list of injuries, Australia won't be happy to learn that old foe, Jonny Wilkinson, could well be returning to the line-up for the first time since 2008. Wilkinson famously kicked the winning goal in the World Cup Final between the rivals in 2003 and the Australian coach, Robbie Deans, is already sounding concerned: "We believe England will be more dangerous with Jonny there. He'll bring a lot of shape to their game."

Can Wilkinson do it again on Saturday? Check Sportingbet's latest odds for both matches.

Week's best bet: Chelsea to beat Manchester United (evens, sportingbet)

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