Google searches for recession have fallen back to a more normal frequency after a big spike in August.
The online search engine certainly is not a flawless metric, but it makes for effective shorthand for the cyber zeitgeist. Much of the recession talk has quieted down.
And why shouldn't it? The stock market is hitting record highs. Unemployment is near record lows. Interest rates and inflation are low. All of this helps explain, why, despite a mature economic expansion, trade tariffs, impeachment noise, and other headwinds; the American shopper is strong.
Investors will examine the latest evidence of that strength in the week ahead. Several economic statistics, and more anecdotal clues, will give the markets an update on the most important contributor to the U.S. economy _ the consumer. Over 70% of the economy is driven by consumption. When there will be a recession, the consumer holds the key for how bad and for how long.
Consumer confidence has been very strong, even as future expectations have been tempered. Trading tariffs and a divisive election can do that. November data from The Conference Board will be released Tuesday. Personal spending and income have continued their moderate growth. The personal savings rate has been trending higher. Those monthly statistics will come out Wednesday.
Then Black Friday. There are all sorts of schemes to measure holiday shopper enthusiasm: credit card transactions, foot traffic, shopping mall parking lot capacities among them. Of course, the eruption of teaser deals, discounts and sales aren't confined to Friday. They began days ago.
For investors, a healthy consumer is important. For the economy, it is imperative.
