The stock market is not the economy. And as the partial government shutdown drags on, that has never been more accurate.
In the week ahead, several regularly scheduled economic releases will be missing. The Commerce Department has been shuttered since Dec. 21. The department's Census Bureau is responsible for collecting and disseminating a series of economic statistics. Durable goods orders and new home sales for December would normally be released in the coming week.
But these aren't normal times for economic data.
Instead of analyzing the latest data to piece together a picture of the American economy and business, investors will be left in the dark.
So far, the stock market has been mostly unfazed by the delayed data specifically and the shutdown generally. But even after the government reopens, the economic reports will have asterisks reflecting the risk of missing data collection.
In the absence of economic evidence, corporate earnings will take on further importance for the overall market. Corporate leaders already are weighing in. JP Morgan's chief financial officer said the bank is "concerned about the impact it has on uncertainty and sentiment, which can be pretty negative." Delta Air Lines CEO said, "We are seeing some pressure on our business."
Don't expect to hear anything from the Federal Reserve, though. Its next interest rate setting meeting starts Jan. 29. Fed officials clam up heading into their deliberations and decisions, which they emphasize are data dependent.
But some of the data is going missing.
