As the Great Recession was taking hold in 2008, there was no joy to be had in reporting dismal monthly unemployment data. Thousands of Americans were losing their livelihoods.
During this dark time, there was much criticism directed at the financial media for reporting the unemployment numbers instead of focusing on how many people were employed. You can't blame investors for having wanted some positive news in an otherwise dismal period, but there was no arguing with the data.
Nine years later, with the stock market at record highs, President Trump is pushing a perception of the job market that, while accurate, is crudely political. In his speech to the joint session of Congress, the president said, "94 million Americans are out of the labor force."
Yes, that is an accurate number as of January. And it is near a record high and it is troubling.
But it also is misleading.
Eighty-nine million of those people not working do not want to, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They may be retired, in school, a new parent, taking care of a parent, or in any number of other situations, including being plain discouraged to the point of no longer seeking out work. But there are not 94 million people _ more than a third of Americans 16 and older _ pining for a job.
That said, America does have three significant employment challenges: low worker productivity growth, meager wage growth, and a shrinking portion of the working age population working or wanting to work.
On Friday, when the February jobs report is released, it'll be the job of investors to separate the data from perception and politics.
