As of this writing, the American League playoff field is nearly settled. Three teams—the Blue Jays, Yankees and Mariners—have locked up postseason bids, while eight have been mathematically eliminated. That leaves four clubs—the Red Sox, Guardians, Tigers and Astros—left to duke it out for the final three spots. The push to get into October baseball seems destined to come down to the final weekend of the season.
But what awaits these squads once they get there? To succeed on the biggest stage, they will need to play at their best (or close to it). Doing so will be as much about papering over weaknesses as it will be leaning into strengths.
All of the teams left in contention are capable of getting hot at the right time. All of them are flawed (some more so than others). Here is the Achilles’ heel for every AL contender.
All stats are updated through Tuesday’s games.
Toronto Blue Jays: Weak bullpen
The Blue Jays have been among the best success stories of the year, going from a 74-win team in 2024 to contending for the AL’s No. 1 seed this season. They’ve done so on the strength of a balanced offense and strong team defense, but the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. Neither the rotation nor the bullpen possesses many hard-throwing options, and the lack of electric stuff among the relievers will be more pronounced in a postseason format that relies less on starters pitching deep into games. Blue Jays relief pitchers also have the highest walk rate (10.2%) among AL playoff contenders.
New York Yankees: Too many strikeouts
The season has not been without its rough patches for the Yankees, who have turned things around to the tune of a 28–12 record since Aug. 11. The key to the resurgence? In short, power. New York leads the majors in home runs for the season, but has upped its pace to averaging just over two dingers per game over that span (season home runs per game average: 1.7). Hitting homers is closely correlated with postseason success, giving the Yankees plenty of potential to make a deep run. However, that type of all-or-nothing approach can quickly go bust in a playoff series. Since Aug. 11, the Yankees have MLB’s second-highest strikeout rate (26.0%), keeping company with bottom-feeders in the Angels, Nationals, Orioles and Rockies. If the whiffs start to cluster and the long balls dry up, it will spell a quick exit for the reigning AL champs.
Seattle Mariners: Can’t pitch on the road
The Mariners’ mostly homegrown starting rotation has been among baseball’s best for the past few years. And while the group has earned its strong reputation, it has undoubtedly benefited from spending half the time pitching at the run-suppressing fortress that is T-Mobile Park. Seattle’s home ERA is 3.26. On the road, it’s 4.50. If the Mariners secure the AL West crown but fail to play themselves out of the wild-card round, they’ll play the best-of-three opening series at home. After that, things could get dicey.
Boston Red Sox: Inferior corner infield play
Alex Bregman looked like a steal of a free agent signing through the first two months of the season until a strained quad landed him on the injured list for nearly two months. He clearly hasn’t been the same since returning, as his production has cratered down the stretch. Since the start of August, Bregman has just four home runs and is slugging .347. Across the diamond, Boston signed Nathaniel Lowe in mid-August after he was released by the last-place Nationals. He has been solid for his new team, but still owns an uninspiring .227/.308/.382 slash line on the season.
Cleveland Guardians: Worst offense in the league
This one is easy. All season long, the Guardians have hung in the race despite having one of the most toothless lineups in all of baseball. By wRC+ (87), Cleveland has the worst offense in the AL. The team ranks last in on-base percentage (.297) and second-to-last in batting average (.226), slugging (.373) and runs scored (621). For opposing pitchers, once you get past José Ramírez—who’s having yet another superb season—there’s not much to be worried about. Of the 15 players who have made at least 100 plate appearances for Cleveland this season, only three have put up a wRC+ above league average (100): Ramírez (133), Kyle Manzardo (114) and Steven Kwan (103).
Detroit Tigers: Back end of the bullpen issues
Even before their historic September collapse, it was clear the Tigers had a glaring need at the back end of their bullpen. Will Vest and Tommy Kahnle did a serviceable job handling the closer duties for most of the year, but neither has the type of wipeout stuff that tends to play in high-leverage playoff spots. Rather than trading for an elite closer like Jhoan Duran or Mason Miller, Detroit added Kyle Finnegan from the Nationals, who performed well before a strained groin landed him on the injured list for three weeks. He returned last weekend but hasn’t looked sharp in two outings since, leaving the Tigers’ late-inning plans feeling a bit hazy.
Houston Astros: No power
Since the All-Star break, the Astros rank dead last in the AL in slugging percentage (.375) and second-to-last in home runs (62). A big part of that has been the absence of Yordan Alvarez, who has had a lost season while dealing with various injuries. But the trio of Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Yainer Díaz—established stars who were counted on to provide much of Houston’s thump—have seen big dropoffs in their power production relative to their career norms. Currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, the Astros will need those three to heat up quickly if they want to make another deep run.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Weakness That Could Sink Every American League Contender in the MLB Playoffs.
