Reprieve for the exiles
Will Genia was once, not so long ago, the prince of international half-backs. However, in recent years he has suffered the fate of Nebuchadnezzar – a man with metaphorical feet of clay who lost his crown. In Genia’s case, the biblical analogy is literal - his Test career all but evaporated because he stopped moving his feet at the base of rucks. It has been no surprise to see the hyperactive Nick Phipps usurp the Queenslander as the first choice Test no 9. However, in what ought to be viewed as a final chance bestowed by national coach Michael Cheika, Genia has been given a rare start, against South Africa in the Wallabies opening Rugby Championship match in Brisbane on Saturday night.
It’s a welcome reprieve for the France-bound Genia to press his claims for a starting role at the Rugby World Cup in September. Indeed, he could prosper with the line-up Cheika has named provided he follows the five-second rule - that is, to clear the ball from the base of rucks in five seconds or less, preferably around three seconds if the forwards are doing their jobs. To suggest Genia cannot play an up-tempo game is fiction. He did exactly that all of the 2011 season when the Reds won the Super 15 title. Back then, nobody had heard much about the apprentice hairdresser Aaron Smith and even the then All Blacks coach Graham Henry rated Genia the best half-back going around.
Sadly, Genia and many other quality Australian players eventually lost their way during the culturally bankrupt Robbie Deans era of bewildering selections (James O’Connor as a fly-half against the British and Irish Lions being the prime example) and disorienting messaging. The plain-talking Cheika has made a difference with his uncomplicated meritocracy-based man-management style. Our sources within the team leadership say communication has never been clearer. Players know exactly where they stand. The culture, which clung like mould to the bottom of the barrel by the time Ewen McKenzie departed, appears to have improved markedly too.
Crucially for the 2019 World Cup in Japan, key talent is voting with ink on contract extensions (Israel Folau and Will Skelton for now, others no doubt to follow). These kind of players don’t stick around for less money than what’s on offer overseas unless the culture is right. But, perhaps more significant for the looming World Cup more so than Japan, is the return of talent to the fold – Matt Giteau, Drew Mitchell, and, to a lesser extent, Quade Cooper (although he remained in Australia, his falling out with Deans was equally as career-damaging as Giteau’s).
Much of the pre-game talk has been about the return of Giteau, Mitchell, and, in particular, Cooper. The Reds no 10, perhaps unfairly, has always been judged as a Test player based on his shocking turn against the All Blacks in the 2011 World Cup semi-final. It’s a game some believe haunts the young man to this day. It needn’t. The All Blacks were quite simply too good that day and beat up the Wallabies upfront, in the air, and just about everywhere else. It’s unlikely any fly-half in the world would have fared any better than Cooper behind such a comprehensively beaten pack. And where Genia’s selection might be seen as a last chance, one suspect’s Cooper’s is the start of a genuine competitive process against incumbent Bernard Foley for who will guide the Wallabies through the World Cup. It appears Foley is paying a heavy price for a substandard Super 15 semi-final performance against the Highlanders. He’s left the door open for Cooper to convince Cheika he poses far more of a threat to tight defensive screens. And the fly-half decision is one Cheika knows he has to get spot on if the Wallabies are to have any chance at the World Cup.
No margin for selection error in pool of death
Unlike previous tournaments where the Wallabies could still work on their best Test XV in pool games, there is no such luxury this time around in the so-called pool of death alongside England and Wales. Even Fiji look the goods these days if their one-point loss against the NZ Maori a fortnight ago is anything to go by. Uruguay, the other team in Pool A, is the only fodder so to speak, but no sensible coach would base best Test XV selection decisions on performances against the Latin Americans. Australia’s pool campaign is really a World Cup within a World Cup, an assignment that includes playing England and Wales, both at Twickenham, seven days apart.
The Springboks, in comparison, need only see off Samoa, Scotland, Japan and the USA. The All Blacks will use Argentina, Tonga, Georgia and Namibia as practice fodder for a likely quarter-final against Ireland or France. Indeed, it’s a rotten draw for the Wallabies. However, the rewards for topping Pool A are substantial. Foremost of which is they go on the other side of the draw to the All Blacks. Then, barring massive upsets, the Wallabies would face either Samoa or Scotland in the quarter-finals; France, Ireland, Argentina or Tonga in the semis; and, on current form, the All Blacks in the final.
Finish second in Pool A, however, and the Wallabies will in all likelihood face South Africa in the quarter-finals for a likely semi-final against the All Blacks. There is, of course, another scenario – England and Wales qualify for the play-offs, and the Wallabies are back home by mid-October. If Cooper fires against the Springboks and against the All Blacks, he could be Australia’s best bet against an early return flight from the UK. It would be a stunning reversal of fortune, but Foley’s demotion to back-up fly-half to Cooper at the World Cup wouldn’t surprise at all. Foley played badly at the worst possible time. Indeed, it could be a career-defining lucky break for the former talismanic fly-half.
Springboks well-balanced with experience and Pollard at 10
South Africa, as always, come to Australia with a strong side. In fact, other than 21-year-old debutant Jesse Kriel at outside centre, coach Heyneke Meyer has named a side that looks every chance of winning not just the Rugby Championship, but the World Cup as well. A la the All Blacks of 2011, the Springboks have a solid core of experience right across the team. And in fly-half Handre Pollard, the Boks arguably possess the next Dan Carter. In terms of experience, what World Cup coach wouldn’t want Willie le Roux, J.P. Pietersen, Bryan Habana, Ruan Pienaar; Schalk Burger, Francois Louw, Victor Matfield (captain), Eben Etzebeth, Jannie du Plessis, Bismarck du Plessis, and ‘The Beast’ Tendai Mtawarira in his starting line-up? Indeed, the Wallabies will face a stern challenge against a very well-balanced and experienced side.
England and All Blacks leading in quest for speed
Who will win on Saturday? Already a tricky question, this is further complicated by the context of a World Cup year. There is a dilemma for Cheika and Meyer – of course, they want to win every Test match, but with only four internationals before the World Cup, they also don’t want to give away too much in terms of new tactics and moves. Given the relative disparity in strength between South Africa and Australia’s pool opponents, this is arguably a bigger headache for Cheika than it is for Meyer. The Springboks can tinker further at the World Cup; the Australian’s don’t have that luxury with England and Wales back-to-back.
Clearly, given the sophistication of video analysis, especially by England, Australia has the double challenge of trying to beat the world’s two best teams and a constantly improving Argentina while giving little away. How exactly does Cheika do this? One suspects he’ll keep new attacking moves and tactics in pocket, and do what he has to do in any event as a baseline for the Wallabies game – speed up the tempo of the game (Genia, please come forward), and do what the All Blacks do by default: attack by kicking, running, or passing into space. It sounds incredibly simple, but so often the Wallabies do anything but. Unless the Wallabies adopt these basic paradigms of the modern game, tactics and fancy moves will be a moot point.
England, a very real threat to win the World Cup, know this to be true and are ahead of the Wallabies at this point. In a telling recent interview, England forwards’ coach Graham Rountree revealed the England players were being flogged mercilessly to get them in shape for a fast-moving game. “We are aspiring to high ball-in-play minutes. There are teams around the world who are leading that at the moment and we want to be at the front of it,” he said. “We’ve played New Zealand a lot recently, and the ball has been in play more against them than against anyone. Minute-wise, it’s in the late 30s. And that’s challenging. We want to get to around 40 minutes a game, ball in play, challenging teams, playing exciting rugby.” To put England’s goal of 40 minutes plus in perspective, consider this: The frenetic Super 15 final between the Hurricanes and Highlander saw the ball in play for 31 minutes and 41 seconds. The average before the final was 31 minutes and 25 seconds. An England team aspiring to be fit enough for 40 ball-in-play minutes plus? Incredible – and frightening for Wallabies supporters. Indeed, the Wallabies have no choice but to hurry things along a clip or two, starting against the Boks. Genia will need to loose his clay feet and find his dancing feet again. If in any doubt as to how it’s done, he can watch All Blacks back-up half-back TJ Perenara in the Rugby Championship opener between New Zealand and Argentina on Friday afternoon.
