For the first time in World Cup history, FIFA have weighted the draw to ensure that the four highest ranked nations will not be able to meet until the semifinals, should they win their respective groups.
Spain (first), Argentina (second), France (third) and England (fourth) make up the leading quartet of qualified nations and will be subjected to FIFA’s new regulations to modify December’s draw.
In the same vein as major tennis tournaments, Spain and Argentina—as the two top seeds—are guaranteed to be drawn on opposite sides of the bracket, establishing that the reigning champions of Europe and South America will not face each other until the final, on the assumption that they both win their groups.
The same applies to France and England. Didier Deschamps’s back-to-back finalists are projected to battle Spain in the semifinal while the Three Lions would theoretically go up against Lionel Messi’s Argentina should the knockout stages adhere to FIFA’s world rankings.
These unprecedented tweaks have consequences stretching beyond the leading quartet of countries.
2026 World Cup Pots
How New World Cup Rules Impact USMNT, Mexico, Canada
As co-hosts, the U.S. men’s national team (USMNT), Canada and Mexico have secured a spot in Pot 1, avoiding matchups with the nine highest ranked countries on the planet in the group stage.
There are still difficult opponents on the horizon—the USMNT could theoretically find themselves up against 2022 semifinalists Morocco, Erling Haaland’s Norway and four-time champions Italy (should they qualify from the playoffs)—which will be determined on Dec. 5. However, the order of those potential opponents is already clear.
Rather than being assigned their opponents in a random order, which was traditionally the case, the World Cup’s three co-hosts already know when they will be playing.
The USMNT and Mexico have been given the same fixture path. Both are set to begin their campaign against a Pot 3 side—which could be anyone from Norway to South Africa, with a Scott McTominay-inspired Scotland also in the mix—before taking on Pot 2.
They finish the group stage against Pot 4, which should theoretically be the easiest opponent. However, FIFA’s stipulation that all playoff teams will be thrust among the lowest ranked nations has thrown a spanner in the works. Given all of the co-hosts are from Concacaf, none can land Curaçao or Haiti, giving them an increased chance of being drawn against one of the four UEFA playoff winners, which could be any of 16 teams, including the likes of Italy, Denmark and Republic of Ireland.
Canada will face their Pot 4 team first, with their opponents ranked in reverse order as they are up against Pot 3 before finishing the group stage with their toughest Pot 2 foe.
USMNT World Cup Fixture Order
Mexico World Cup Fixture Order
Canada World Cup Fixture Order
READ THE LATEST WORLD CUP NEWS, PREVIEWS & ANALYSIS HERE
This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Unprecedented Rule Change FIFA Have Implemented for 2026 World Cup Draw.
