Wayne Pivac said the other day Wales had made a change to their defence in the autumn but there were other parts of their game that didn’t function as he would have liked.
He picked out the set-piece as an area that didn’t work so well.
Perhaps someone belatedly pointed him in the direction of a column I wrote for WalesOnline on November 15. Byron Hayward had just left his role as defence chief but I argued at the time the main problem hadn’t been addressed.
I wrote back then: “What really perturbs me is Hayward, and defence, were not the main problems with this Wales team, despite what was being claimed.
“There are bigger concerns, namely what's happening at forward and what I see as something of an aimless kicking game where we just boot the ball straight back to the opposition.
“The defence has been exposed because we aren't getting anywhere near enough possession. That in turn means we have to keep making tackles.
“As a consequence of not securing our own ball, we're having to defend far more than we should be. We have to start getting the fundamentals right.”
That meant getting our scrum right and getting our line-out working properly.
Suddenly it seems Pivac is singing from that same song sheet.
I’m glad to see it. But let’s see him back up his words with deeds.
Wales have to have a solid set-piece, otherwise the next couple of months could be a write-off.
How will they do?
Well, I’m going to look at each country and underline why I think it’s strength in depth that will prove the difference in the coming weeks.
Wales
Let’s start with Pivac’s team.
For once, they seem to have enjoyed some decent news on the injury front, with Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Tomos Williams and Josh Navidi all returning to fitness after absences.
Dan Lydiate is also back in the mix.
Owens’ return after a long layoff could prove especially significant.
Wales missed him in the autumn. They missed his leadership, his accuracy in the line-outs and his physicality.
The question is how long it will take him and the others to regain their match-fitness. A lot of it is down the individual, but Wales need start-up players like Owens and Jones to be at their best quickly.
My guess is Lydiate will start against Ireland.
He’s been the form No. 6 in regional rugby and the Ospreys say he’s playing as well as always.
I like the way he’s battled back into the mix. No so long ago, referees began to turn against the chop-tackling game he enjoyed so much success with, with officials penalising Lydiate if he failed to wrap his arms in contact. But he’s gone away and addressed whatever issues there were.
With him in the set-up, the defence should improve.
But I will say here and now if we hit injury problems in the front row we’ll be in trouble. Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis are key to the campaign for Wales. If either of them is injured, it’s hard to see how Pivac can replace them from within the existing squad while maintaining a solid scrum.
They are two players were just cannot afford to lose.
I had hopes for Rhodri Jones on the loose-head side, but he hit big problems out in Connacht with the Ospreys last time out. And while Rhys Carre offers a bit around the field, I’ve yet to see convincing evidence that he can cope in the scrums at Test level.
He needs to have his head shoved into areas where he won’t show his friends until he learns how to dish out the same treatment to his rivals.
It’s the same at tight-head. Dillon Lewis and Leon Brown may look good around the field, but a prop’s first job is to scrummage. There’s only so much to be gained from a loose-head or tight-head running around the field like a lamb in springtime if he’s up against it in the scrums and giving away penalty after penalty.
It’s basic stuff really.
If Wales don’t get it right at the set-piece everything else is irrelevant.
Certainly a lot of people will want to see if the problems of the autumn have been sorted.
The old adage suggests if something goes wrong once you blame the players; if it goes wrong repeatedly you blame the coaches.
For Wayne Pivac and Jonathan Humphreys, then, it’s a big campaign.
Many see their side finishing fifth.
It'll take a fair bit to confound such thinking.
France
They look to have the resources to cope with whatever is thrown at them.
Look how they performed when they turned up at Twickenham with a second-string side for the Autumn Nations Cup final against England. They gave Eddie Jones’ players a hurry-up and and could — perhaps should — have won.
The rugby they played in that match was outstanding.
They were bold, skilful and able to play at a high tempo. Superbly drilled in defence by Shaun Edwards, they made their tackles and killed English attacks in their infancy.
Injuries mean they’ll head into the championship without Romain Ntamack and Virimi Vakatawa. Another bright-as-a-button youngster, Matthieu Jalibert, should step in seamlessly for Ntamack at fly-half. Maybe he’s a better game controller. However you paint it, Vakatawa is a big loss, but France have other very good centres in their set-up.
They also have the brilliant Antoine Dupont at scrum-half. Is he the best player in the world right now? The fact that we are even asking the question underlines how talented he is. If he keeps progressing, there’s every chance he’ll end up as an all-time great.
I like the look of their pack, too. They are on top of the basics and, as I’ve said in relation to Wales, that matters.
France to win the title, then, edging out last year's champions.
England
The Six Nations title holders have a number of significant casualties. Mako Vunipola, Joe Marler, Kyle Sinckler, Joe Launchbury and Sam Underhill are all sidelined, so England’s forward depth will be tested.
But they have a player pool and a system that’s able to keep producing replacements. Ellis Genge is a quality loose-head to come in for Marler, for instance, while Harry Williams has been keeping Tomas Francis out of Exeter’s starting line-up.
Because they have such depth, they will always be strong.
Maro Itoje is a key player for them, a lock who has the breakdown game of a back rower and the mobility and athleticism to get around the field. He’s been touted for the Lions captaincy and I don’t think he’ll be far off.
Where England can come unstuck is that they have a tendency to blow it themselves. They sometimes allow the occasion to get too much for them. This year, unfortunately for Wales, there won’t be any fans in the Principality Stadium when the two teams meet. That takes away a huge amount from Wales.
Jones' team will contest the silverware again, but this time may just come up short.
Ireland
Like England, they’ve had their fair share of injury issues but they have quality reserves. Minus Tadhg Furlong in the autumn, they upgraded Andrew Porter and he did well, making a mess out of the Wales front row when the sides met in Dublin.
They also have intelligent players in key positions. Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton maybe be not be the youngest but they know what they are doing at half-back. Garry Ringrose is back in the centre. Their young lock James Ryan makes good calls, too.
Injuries have robbed them of Caelan Doris and Quinn Roux but they’ve been able to whistle up Gavin Coombes and Ryan Baird. That’s the kind of back-up coaches enjoy having at their disposal.
They'll have their ambitions.
But I see a mid-table finish for them: third.
Scotland
Despite bumps to experienced hookers Stuart McInally and Fraser Brown and backs Adam Hastings and George Horne, Scotland appear quietly confident.
They have Italy, Wales and Ireland to play at Murrayfield, and will be looking to pick up points from those games. Really, to consolidate their progress of late, they need to win all three matches.
Wales will know not to underestimate the Scots.
In the Grand Slam campaign of 2019, Gregor Townsend’s team gave Warren Gatland's players arguably their toughest game of the season. I can still see Hadleigh Parkes looking battered and bruised as he did his post-match interviews.
But Ireland should have enough about them to win in the Scottish capital and trips to England and France will not be easy for Townsend’s men.
Fourth? That sounds about right.
Italy
And so to the championship’s perennial strugglers.
Let’s be blunt — Italy couldn’t win in the Six Nations with Sergio Parisse during the No. 8’s twilight years as a Test player, so it’s asking a fair bit for them to break the sequence now he’s left the scene.
They are up to 27 matches without a win in the Six Nations.
But they’ll target the game with Wales in Rome.
It’s where Wayne Pivac’s team are at. Their performances in the autumn were so poor everyone will be looking to take points off them.
If Italy do beat Wales they’ll consider their championship a success.
But Pivac’s players will head there on full alert.
Nothing that happened in the autumn tells me Italy are going to radically improve.
For them, sadly, it’s set to be the same old story: sixth, the position they're so familiar with.
