It’s been a good return to Sunderland for Grant Leadbitter so far.
The 33-year-old signed a two-and-a-half-year contract with the Black Cats in January, ten years on from when he left the club for Ipswich in 2009 after making 111 appearances.
Since coming back to the Stadium of Light, he has been a prominent player in Jack Ross’ side having made 14 league appearances. Across those matches, despite playing in a deeper role usually partnered by Lee Cattermole, he has registered an impressive four assists and proven a reliable performer.
However in recent weeks those appearances have subsided, with Leadbitter starting just four of Sunderland’s previous eight matches.
But has his omission impacted his side's fortunes?
Notably with Leadbitter, Sunderland won just one of the four matches he was in the starting line up, which came against Walsall.
Meanwhile, there was defeats to Portsmouth (via penalties), Coventry and a draw with Burton.
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However, without the midfielder, Sunderland have won three of their four matches; their draw at Peterbrough coming after wins against Doncaster Rovers, Rochdale and Accrington Stanley.
But what do the underlying numbers tell us from these matches?
In terms of goals scored, Sunderland have scored nine across the four matches that Leadbitter has played. That is a goal more than the four matches without the midfielder. Of course, it is worth noting that four of those goals came in their insane 5-4 defeat to Coventry.
A good metric to assess the impact Leadbitter has had on Sunderland attack is to look at the Expected Goals (xG) in that time. xG measures the quality of a chance on goal based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal etc. A team’s expected goals can give an indication as to how many goals a team should have scored on average, given the quality of chances created.
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With an accumulated total of 5.38 to 4.87, Sunderland actually had a higher xG in the matches without Leadbitter in the side. This indicates his side created better chances without the midfielder than they did with him.
They also managed more shots on goal per 90 minutes without the 33-year-old, averaging 6.25 per 90 minutes in comparison to 5.5 with him in the side.
Of course, Leadbitter’s role is to sit deeper and look to break up opposition attacks. So how have the team faired defensively without him?
Notably, Sunderland conceded nine goals with Leadbitter in comparison to just four without him. Again, the noticeable caveat here is the fact the Black Cats conceded five of those goals in one match, yet it is still an observable increase.
In terms of Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) - which measures the quality of chances in the same way xG does, only from a defensive point of view rather than an attacking one - Sunderland allowed more quality chances on their goal with Leadbitter rather than without.
In this department, the same Coventry caveat isn’t as relevant as Sunderland’s xGC within that match accumulated to just 0.9. This theoretically demonstrates that Sunderland should have conceded closer to just one goal, than they five they actually did give the chances they bestowed to the opposition - highlighting a potentially unlucky day at the office for Ross’ men.
Additionally, there was also more shots on Sunderland's goal with the Englishman in midfield than without him.
With Leadbitter in the side, Sunderland are slightly better at retaining and recycling possession. They averaged 285.56 passes per 90 minutes compared to 270.75 without him.
Overall, it is worth nothing there are plenty of variables meaning that Leadbitter can’t solely be held responsible for the direct impact on these numbers.
Yet, with an increase in offensive threat without the midfielder, along with a rise in defensive stability, it does perhaps shed some light on Ross’ decision to rotate the 33-year-old.
The decision to bring Leadbitter back to the Stadium of Light has proved a wise one, no doubt.
However, going forward, using the midfielder intermittently may proved the best course of action.
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