This season can be labeled as nothing but a disappointment so far for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Despite a stellar start from Damian Lillard, who is playing like a legit MVP candidate, the Blazers find themselves in 10th place in the West with a 3-4 record.
Portland had high expectations coming off of last year’s run to the Western Conference Finals. The stars seemed to align for them this offseason. Both CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard signed big extensions and balance returned to the Western Conference with the death of the Warriors — may they rest in peace.
We all thought the Blazers would finally become one of those teams who could worry about what was going on at the top of things. We were all wrong. When I say we, I mostly mean me.
Damian Lillard is keeping Portland afloat
Just looking at Damian Lillard alone, he’s been one of the best five or six players in the NBA this season. He’s averaging career highs in points (31.1), assists (7.3), and player efficiency rating (30.1). This is MVP-level stuff.
Lillard is one of six guards in NBA history to have a PER of at least 30 while also playing at least 30 minutes per game, per Basketball Reference’s play index. The others? Kyrie Irving this season, 2015-16 Stephen Curry, 2018-19 James Harden, 2008-09 Dwyane Wade and 2016-17 Russell Westbrook. Three of those players won MVPs that season.
He’s 29, kind of late for a career-year blossoming, but it’s happening. The problem is that when the Blazers’ star sits on the bench the team looks like they’d get smacked by a G-League team.
In 72 minutes with Lillard on the bench the Blazers have a -21.7 net rating, per NBA.com’s stats tool. Just to put that in perspective, the Memphis Grizzlies hold the league’s lowest net rating at -10.7. The Blazers’ mark is basically double that. It’s not just bad — it’s really bad.
It’s about CJ McCollum and the rest of the offense
A lack of offensive production outside of Lillard is why they’re so bad. Their offense rating dropped from 113.7 last year to 109.1 this year. They’re missing that punch — particularly from CJ McCollum.
What made the Blazers so good last season was that Lillard didn’t have to be at his best for them to win. The McCollum we saw shoot the Blazers into the Western Conference Finals last year has been missing, and that’s putting it kindly.
His counting stats look good but his efficiency is awful. He’s averaging 20.4 points per game on 19.3 shots and is shooting a career low 40.1 percent from the field. For the Blazers to pick things up, McCollum has to be better.
That matters because the team is riding their backcourt combo for offense right now more than ever before. The frontcourt is in shambles. Last year Jusuf Nurkic, Al-Faroq Aminu, Moe Harkless and Jake Layman started a combined 239 games for the Blazers last year. Nurkic has yet to play because of a broken leg. The other three are gone.
Hassan Whiteside hasn’t been the huge plus they thought he’d be in Nurkic’s place. His .6 net rating doesn’t really move the needle. Zach Collins is out with a dislocated shoulder. Other than that, they’re relying on Anthony Toliver, Mario Hezonja and Kent Bazemore to make plays. Yikes.
It’s still early
Things could change for the Blazers. They’re 3-4 right now, which isn’t the most awful place to be in at this point in the season. They have time to recover.
We also don’t know what’s real and what’s not right now. I mean, fam, the Suns are the second best team in the conference. It’s definitely too soon to declare Portland dead.
But without more help from McCollum offensively, the Blazers won’t reach the same peak they did last year. That’s unacceptable for a team spending as much as they are this season.
