When we say that “Running backs don’t matter” in today’s NFL, I would opine that the more accurate slogan would be, “Running backs don’t matter if they don’t give an offense clear and definable traits and attributes.” It’s a bit clunkier, and you’re not going to see it on a T-shirt, but the running backs who come into the NFL with skill sets to help their professional offenses hit a different level will always be valuable, no matter how fungible backs may been seen at any given time.
Look at the running backs selected in the first round since 2016. That gives us a five-year view, and in that five years, the majority of NFL offenses have moved further and further away from the running back as the force multiplier of an offense. Eight backs have been taken in the first round in that time, and outside of Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley, they haven’t been bellwether guys. Moreover, McCaffrey and Barkley have seen their overall value diminished due to injuries, and before Dak Prescott got hurt last season, the Cowboys were doing everything possible to put the offense in Prescott’s hands.
So, maybe it’s smarter to target the backs in later rounds who you think can accentuate what you want to accomplish schematically and philosophically. Few backs have been more valuable to their teams — in very different ways — than Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara. Well, the Titans, who took Henry in the second round of the 2016 draft, want to beat you up and take your lunch money. Henry is the perfect back for that. Conversely, Sean Payton prefers his backs to be multi-positional tone-setters, and Kamara has proven to be the logical extension of Reggie Bush in Payton’s playbook. Which made him a ridiculous bargain in the third round of the 2017 draft.
The Seahawks got Chris Carson, their zone power back, in the seventh round of the 2017 draft, and the Packers took Aaron Jones in the fifth round that same year — which was before we understood what a perfect fit he’d be as a more versatile player in Matt LaFleur’s offense. Former head coach and offensive shot-caller Mike McCarthy didn’t understand Jones’ value, but LaFleur saw it right away.
Moving to the 2021 draft class of running backs, there’s a lot of specific talent here, and let’s not diminish any of these guys just because they’re not 300-carry dominators. Look closer and see just how they can help specific offenses.
How they can, in effect, matter.
Note: The percentiles in parentheses listed next to pro day data are compared to all historical athletic testing (combine and pro day) at the respective position of the player. Kudos to Pro Football Focus, and their Pro Day Schedule and Results Tracker, for this. As there was no scouting combine in 2021, and pro day schedules vary, we may not have all testing information for all prospects at publication time.
