With the Houston Texans waiving D’Onta Foreman, running back Lamar Miller has little competition in his position group. He’s in line for a significant workload in 2019.
Miller was efficient in 2018 at 4.6 yards per carry, a career high, and might have been a bigger contributor in fantasy if it wasn’t for Alfred Blue, who poached a handful of Miller’s touches. It was a similar story in 2017 when Foreman stole carries, which seemed inevitable to repeat itself this season. Foreman and Blue are no longer with the Texans — fantasy football owners can have more confidence in Miller.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson is now the most likely character to steal rushing yards from Miller. At running back, there’s nothing but unproven players: Buddy Howell, Josh Ferguson, Karan Higdon Jr., Taiwan Jones and Damarea Crockett. That’s not an impressive bunch. The Texans are interested in bringing in another back to compete for the backup role, according to the Houston Chronicle’s John McClain. The only free agent that’s somewhat intimidating is Jay Ajayi, but his 2018 season was one of his worst with 45 carries for 184 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.
At this point in the season, it’s impossible to make guarantees. The Texans may grow to like a back who is, at this point, a complete unknown (much like the Denver Broncos gravitated toward former undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay in 2018). What’s most likely is the Texans will make Miller a focal point in the offense, a decision which benefits both Houston and Miller. He’s on the final year of his contract, and will be intent upon proving he’s worth another contract in free agency in 2020.
With no other competent running back in place, Miller looks mighty tempting at 64th overall (RB28), where Fantasy Pros has him projected. He’s going even later on ESPN, which has him as RB30 and a ninth-round pick. Maybe another back enters the mix and gets some of Miller’s touches. Maybe Miller’s current competition proves to be surprisingly strong. The most likely outcome, however, is that he is by far the best back on the roster, and that the Texans — unafraid of the long-term impact on a player in the final year of his deal — elect to overuse Miller. The possibility of that outcome makes him a good value in the fifth and sixth rounds of fantasy football drafts.
