Israel’s massive attack on Iran which began last Friday caught many observers off guard, but the warning signals were there to see (the US suddenly evacuating diplomatic staff from its local embassies is rarely a good sign).
Applying the Iraq war playbook, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has claimed pre-emptive action was necessary because Tehran is on the brink of producing a nuclear weapon – intelligence it has not yet made public, and which appears to conflict with the assessments of both the US and the UN’s nuclear watchdog.
Regional events also offer a guide. As Jason Burke outlines in our big story this week, Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen – has been diminished in a chain of events triggered by the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Tehran, it seems, has never been in a weaker position.
Israel saw the perfect opportunity to further erode its longstanding regional foe. The question now is whether its goals end with halting Iran’s nuclear programme, or removing Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s regime altogether.
Either way the outlook is far from certain, particularly if the US pivots from its previous position of seeking talks with Iran to joining the military operation – a high-risk development with the potential to unleash lasting chaos.
Israel appears to think its intervention in Iran could rehabilitate the country’s shredded international reputation, although that could be a stretch too far even for Netanyahu. But beyond hitting Iran’s nuclear threat, it’s hard to see any grand strategy. As our columnist Nesrine Malik notes this week: “It’s all looking very Gaza-like: escalation with no end; or regime change with no plan.”
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Five essential reads in this week’s edition
Spotlight | Millions turn out for ‘No King’ protests across America
On the day US president Donald Trump held a military parade in Washington, protesters demonstrated at about 2,000 sites throughout the US. Guardian reporters were on the scene
Science | Sadiah Qureshi on extinction and empire
Maya Goodfellow talks to the science historian about her new book, Vanished, in which she considers how we treat life – whether living, endangered, dead or extinct
Feature | How does woke start winning again?
British progressives have faced major setbacks in recent years. Was a backlash inevitable – and are new tactics needed? Gaby Hinsliff investigates
Opinion | Attenborough’s Ocean is the film I’ve been waiting my whole career for
The documentary shows the damage that fishing does to our planet, writes George Monbiot. So why does the industry still hold governments to ransom?
Culture | The wistful, euphoric genius of Brian Wilson
The former Beach Boy, who died last week aged 82, seeped melancholy into even peppy teenybopper hits. Beyond all the myths about his life, that brilliance is still intoxicating, writes Alexis Petridis
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What else we’ve been reading
• Visionary genius or visual gibberish? Few film-makers divide opinion like Adam Curtis. His latest hallucinogenic documentary series, Shifty, charts what he sees as the UK’s slide towards civil war, as he outlines in this piece. I’ll leave it to you to decide where you stand on the Curtis conundrum. In the meantime I’m off for a lie down. Graham Snowdon, editor
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Other highlights from the Guardian website
• Audio | Arise, Sir David Beckham – podcast
• Video | It’s complicated: The hidden dangers of weight-loss drugs
• Gallery | Down by the river: a meditation on mental health
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