As Nottingham Forest and their Championship rivals return to training ahead of a potential resumption of action, questions are being asked about how playing the remainder of the campaign in empty stadiums might affect the promotion and relegation battles.
Forest are currently fifth in the league, 10 points adrift of the automatic promotion spots and five points clear of Bristol City in seventh, but uncertainty reigns over whether a switch to behind-closed-doors football will help or harm some teams more than others.
The Bundesliga isn’t the perfect comparison for the Championship, but we can still look at the German top-flight to get an idea of how results are being impacted by the absence of supporters.
Without packed stadiums energising home teams, home victories have halved in the 27 games since the Bundesliga’s return, down from 43% to 19%, while nearly half of games have resulted in away wins.
This could be bad news for those Championship teams much stronger at home than on the road, but this isn’t a category Forest fall into.
Sabri Lamouchi’s team have picked up 32 points on the road and 28 at home - a notable shift from last season, when they earned 43 at the City Ground and just 23 away from home.
The switch could actually benefit Forest, who have two away games on the horizon against two of the teams with the biggest gaps between home and away points: Preston North End (36 points at home, 20 away) and Derby County (37 at home, 14 away). Without those teams being able to enjoy the boost of a packed stadium, Lamouchi’s side may feel even more confident of success away from home.
At home, though, they will face sides no longer saddled with the burden of struggling on the road, with the unusual conditions potentially levelling the playing field. Fulham, Huddersfield Town and Stoke City all face trips to NG2, and all three have differences of 10 or more points between their home and away tallies.
Forest might not have as many reasons to be fearful as others after taking stock of the Bundesliga numbers, but it will be a challenging few months for everyone.
