Nielsen's traffic data shows a steady decline in US eBay user numbers going back to the start of last year, Silicon Alley Insider notes. Factoring seasonal trends, like growth in the long month of January (presumably when everyone tries to flog their unwanted Christmas presents) and a dip in the summer, there is still an decline in average unique user numbers in those 21 months. By October this year, unique users were down 10% year on year, page views down 33% and the average time spent on the site per user had dropped 19%.
What is the cause of eBay's problems? Henry Blodget blames eBay failing to turn the business around, as well as overpricing and competition. We'll need to be further into the recession to see if difficult economic times mean far less people spending money on luxury second-hand stuff on eBay, or of the site might actually see some evidence of people trying to make essential extra cash by selling stuff they don't need.
But even if that is the case, eBay users have been frustrated by various rule changes, and the introduction of bulk retail listings in August this year that reinforced a very different direction from the home-seller users that got the site going. And as eBay moves towards a larger-scale retail model, and alienates the 'amateur' sellers who one formed its core audience, so sites like Etsy.com will continue to thrive.
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