STARTING POINT
With half a dozen resignations and redrawn boundaries moving 770,000 voters to different seats, a lot has changed since 2019.
Coalition - 45 (33 Liberal, 12 Nationals)
Labor - 38
Greens - 3
Independents - 7 (Ward, Greenwich, Dalton, Butler, Donato, Piper, McGirr)
UNIFORM SWING NEEDED
For majority government (47 seats):
Coalition - 1.7 per cent
Labor - 6.2 per cent
BUT IT'S MORE COMPLICATED THAN THAT
About one in five seats in 2019 were non-classic contests, meaning a non-major-party candidate won or came second in a seat.
The Liberals face five battles in northern Sydney seats from independents, as well as a Climate 200-backed candidate in Wollondilly.
Three-cornered contests will also occur in Lismore, Tweed and Port Macquarie
Shooters are trying to regain three regional seats held by MPs who quit mid-term
RETIRING MEMBERS
Coalition - 13 including in five ministers
Labor - 3
Other - 2
VULNERABLE COALITION SEATS
Heathcote (notionally Labor 1.7 per cent after redistribution)
East Hills (held by 0.1)
Upper Hunter (Nationals hold by 0.5)
Penrith (0.6)
Goulburn (3.1)
Willoughby (3.3 v Independent)
Tweed (NAT 5.0)
Wollondilly (6.0 v Ind)
Winston Hills (5.7)
Holsworthy (6.0)
Riverstone (6.2)
Parramatta (6.5)
VULNERABLE LABOR SEATS
Kogarah (0.1)
Leppington (1.5)
Lismore (2.0 v NAT, threat from Greens)
OTHER KEY SEATS
Murray (Shooters-turned-independent 2.8 v NAT)
Barwon (Shooters-turned-independent 6.6 v NAT)
Orange (Shooters-turned-independent 15.2 v NAT)
UPPER HOUSE
21 of 42 seats up for grabs. Seats not up for re-election are held by:
Coalition - 8
Labor - 7
Greens - 2
One Nation - 2
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers - 1
Animal Justice - 1
