When once asked about spoilers — sub-par teams capable of ruining postseason plans for stronger teams by way of upset wins at the most opportune times — legendary baseball manager Sparky Anderson said in his own unique way, “No spoilers don’t collect no checks.”
That may be true when it comes to postseason money, but in every NFL season, there are those supposedly sub-par opponents lurking in the weeds, waiting to upset potential playoff teams at the most inconvenient possible time.
These nine teams with losing records should be taken seriously as spoilers in the last six weeks of the 2009 season — none of them look like playoff teams, but they have enough on the ball to make things interesting down the stretch. They are ranked in reverse order based on current performance, their records against winning teams to date, and the number of winning teams remaining on their schedules.
9. Detroit Lions
Current record: 3-6-1
2019 record vs. winning teams: 0-5
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 2
The 3-6-1 Lions started their season tying the Cardinals, then beat the Chargers and Eagles. Things looked good for Matt Patricia’s team after a close loss to the Chiefs, and then came the Week 5 Monday night loss to thew Packers, in which Clete Blakeman’s officiating crew was rightly and repeatedly called into question. Since then, Detroit has won just one game — a a 31-6 victory over the Giants — and has gone down over and over in heartbreaking fashion. Only one of those losses came with a margin over 10 points — Detroit’s 42-30 Week 7 loss to the Vikings — and though the defense has been wildly inconsistent, the offense has held up decently with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel replacing Matthew Stafford as Stafford recovers from a back injury.
Detroit has another game with Minnesota and a revenge match with the Packers left in their season, and if Patricia can figure out his defense, this Lions team could still be better than their record indicates.
8. Denver Broncos
Current record: 3-7
2019 record vs. winning teams: 0-5
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 4
It’s been a frustrating season for Vic Fangio in his first year as Denver’s head coach. The misbegotten deal with Joe Flacco, and the subsequent adaptation to Brandon Allen, has left the 3-7 Broncos in an offensive pickle that’s been tough to recover from. Denver currently ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted passing metrics, and it’s been tough for running back Phillip Lindsay and a game defense to overcome those quarterback issues. If that sounds like every Broncos season since Peyton Manning’s retirement, that’s not inaccurate.
That said, Fangio’s team has been more and more competitive as the season has gone along, with a close loss to the Colts, a win over the Browns, and a nail-biting loss to the Vikings last Sunday in which Fangio’s defense shut Kirk Cousins down in the first half before the dam burst. Denver has Buffalo, Houston, Kansas City, and Oakland among its remaining opponents, and if Allen is able to help create a credible passing game, Denver could be a tough out every week through the rest of the season.
7. New York Jets
Current record: 3-7
2019 record vs. winning teams: 0-4
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 3
It’s not that the Jets would have been a playoff contender with Sam Darnold on the field all season — when he wasn’t recovering from mononucleosis, Darnold presided over three wins and four losses. But Gang Green is on a bit of a hot streak, beating the Giants and Redskins in their last two games. There are too many roster holes for this team to be taken seriously in a contending sense, but Darnold is developing well, and safety Jamal Adams is playing at a torrid pace as both a blitzer and a coverage man.
The Jets have the Bills this Sunday, and they beat their division rival 17-16 in Week 1. They also have the Raiders and Ravens in the final six weeks of the season.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current record: 3-7
2019 record vs. winning teams: 1-4
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 2
The Buccaneers have ridden two obvious weaknesses to their 3-7 record — a secondary that has the Bucs ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted rankings in pass defense, and a quarterback in Jameis Winston who can’t stop throwing interceptions. Winston currently leads the league with 18 picks, tying the career high he set in 2016. The thing about Winston, though, is that he can turn his GPS on at any given time and become a superior threat in short spurts. In a four-game stretch from Week 2 through Week 5, Winston threw 10 touchdown passes to two interceptions, and the Bucs went 2-2. This included games against the Panthers, Rams, and Saints, so it wasn’t as if Winston was picking on pass defenses as bad as his own.
If Winston can actually play up to his potential through the end of the season, the Colts and Texans could experience upsets down the road.
5. Chicago Bears
Current record: 4-6
2019 record vs. winning teams: 1-4
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 4
The Bears rank fourth in Defensive DVOA this season. Pretty consistent with last season’s No. 1 ranking, though they’re way down from 2018’s league-leading 27 interceptions — Chicago has just seven this season. Khalil Mack is not quite the force he was last season, but he still has 44 total pressures. Chicago is still trying to figure things out as a rushing offense with satellite player Tarik Cohen and rookie David Montgomery, but the real and obvious issue is with quarterback Miutchell Trubisky, The 4-6 Bears are to the point where they have to win in spite of their quarterback, which is never a good way to go.
Still, when Trubisky plays at even a league-average level, the Bears have the potential to put a quality product on the field. Head coach Matt Nagy would be wise to put Trubisky in more boot-action and running situations — if that works out, the Bears could present actual challenges to the Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings in their final four games.
4. Cleveland Browns
Current record: 4-6
2019 record vs. winning teams: 2-4
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 1
With the Browns, it’s only half a question about who can beat them. The other half of the equation is whether the Browns will beat themselves. Last Thursday’s fiasco cost them the services of defensive end Myles Garrett for at least the rest of the 2019 season, as well as defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi for one game. One never knows which version of Baker Mayfield will show up, and Cleveland has racked up the NFL’s most penalties this season with 112, and they’ve lost a league-leading 347 yards on those penalties. The defense will obviously take a hit without Garrett, and outside of Denzel Ward, the secondary has been inconsistent.
That said, the Browns can play up to the level of just about anybody, as they proved in wins over the Ravens, Bills, and Steelers. They have the Ravens again on December 22, and that will be a very interesting rematch.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
Current record: 4-7
2019 record vs. winning teams: 2-3
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 3
The Chargers haven’t lost a game by more than a touchdown all season, and they’ve had the usual number of heartbreaking late-game meltdowns that brought them to their current 4-7 record. In their last two games, losses to the Raiders and Chiefs by a combined nine points, the obvious issue was Philip Rivers hurling the ball all over the place, especially in ultimate crunch time. Per Sports Info Solutions, Rivers has four interceptions in the last two minutes of games this season — no other quarterback has more than one except for Dak Prescott, who has two.
The Chargers have an above-average defense, a good group of receivers, and a strong running game with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Their situational awareness has been nightmarish all season, but they have enough in the tank to make things interesting for the Vikings, Raiders, and Chiefs in the last three weeks of the regular season… if Rivers can get his bearings for a while.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Current record: 3-7
2019 record vs. winning teams: 1-5
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 2
So, this team could be a real problem. During the Falcons’ Week 9 bye, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn made some changes to his defensive coaching staff, assigning first- and second-down defense to linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich, and third-down defense to assistant head coach/defensive backs coach Raheem Morris. Before this move, Atlanta ranked 28th in the NFL in points allowed and 25th in total touchdowns allowed. The Falcons also were dead last in interceptions, and they had just eight sacks in eight games. Since the move, Atlanta ran over the Saints and Panthers by a combined score of 55-6. In that span, they haven’t allowed a touchdown, they’ve picked off four passes, added 11 sacks to their team total, and both of those wins are on the road.
It’s probably too late for the Falcons to do anything nearing a postseason run, but they have the Saints, Panthers, and 49ers before the season is over, and right now, this looks like a defense that could ruin a lot of hoped-for playoff seeds.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Current record: 3-7-1
2019 record vs. winning teams: 0-5
Number of upcoming winning opponents: 3
The union of rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray continues to bear fruit in the Valley of the Sun. In two close losses to the 49ers and their incendiary defense, Murray became the only quarterback to post a passer rating of over 100 against San Francisco — and he’s done it twice. Murray has thrown seven touchdown passes and just one interception since Week 9 — only Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo, Lamar Jackson, and Kirk Cousins have more touchdown passes in that time. If Arizona’s defense wasn’t such a problem (especially against the pass), and the Cardinals weren’t in a division with the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams (combined record: 23-7), we’d be talking more about this.
As it stands, Kingsbury has put an offense on the field that nobody really wants to face right now. The Rams will have to do it twice before the season ends, and the Seahawks get another chance to beat Arizona in Week 16 as they did in Week 4. They will find a different passing game awaiting them.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
