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ABC News
ABC News
National
state political reporter Leah MacLennan

The South Australian women who turned safe Liberal seats marginal in the 2022 state election

Possible candidate for Grey Liz Habermann secured more than a 23 per cent swing against the Liberals in the recent state election. (ABC News: Carl Saville)

Liz Habermann would never have described herself as "political", but that changed while she sat in the South Australian Parliament in 2021, watching voluntary assisted dying laws pass.

Her terminally ill son Rhys took his own life just a few years earlier.

It put his mother on an advocacy path that would result in her coming within striking distance of sitting on the floor of that parliament herself.

"Sometimes you have these life changing things happen to you and you can decide to either be angry or you choose to have something good come of it," Mrs Habermann said.

"I was sitting in, listening to some of the MPs talk or debate the bill and the way that some of them spoke, it's like they didn't know what it was like to live out in the real world, which sort of planted the initial seed of 'surely we can do things better than this'."

Liz Habermann and her husband, Brett, (left) campaigned to legalise voluntary assisted dying after their son Rhys's death. (Supplied)

Mrs Habermann runs the Wudinna Bakery in the electorate of Flinders, which covers South Australia's Eyre Peninsula, west coast and north west outback.

After her exposure to political life, she joined the local council and late last year announced she would run in the South Australian election as an independent.

Populated by farmers and fishers, Flinders has long been a blue ribbon Liberal seat, but Mrs Habermann secured more than a 23 per cent swing against the party.

She said after talking to the community, she began to hear stories of "absolute frustration" from voters who felt their regional electorate was "out of sight, out of mind" of politicians in Adelaide.

Mrs Habermann found healthcare was people's biggest concern, along with the state of rural roads, the closure of the local grain train in 2019, and plans to build a desalination plant in Boston Bay.

"These career politicians … it's just not working," Mrs Habermann said.

One of Mrs Habermann's most prominent supporters is Marie Shaw QC, who grew up on the Eyre Peninsula and was concerned it was being neglected.

"No-one cared at all about the Eyre Peninsula because it was a safe seat," Ms Shaw said.

"They weren't going to spend a penny in the electorate."

Ms Shaw backed Mrs Habermann, helping rally the community and donating to her campaign, describing the candidate as an "angel" who has "shown she's willing to stand up and fight for something".

Independents disrupt status quo

Like Mrs Habermann, Lou Nicholson's path to politics started as she watched parliament debate legislation she felt strongly about.

In Ms Nicholson's case it was "no jab, no play" laws.

While she is no anti-vaxxer, she felt the policy went too far, and wanted to see it amended to exclude kindergarten.

"My background in occupational therapy makes early childhood education very important to me," she said.

"I recognise that it's crucial for picking up any developmental delays, it's just one of the foundations of education."

Independent candidate for Finniss Lou Nicholson. (Facebook)

Ms Nicholson lives in Goolwa, a beachside town in the heart of the seat of Finniss, an electorate made up largely of coastal communities and a strong retiree demographic.

Like Flinders, Finniss has long been Liberal heartland, held by the now former primary industries minister David Basham with a 14.5 per cent margin.

But as she spoke to people about the issues facing their community, she noticed others shared her frustration with policies on homelessness, health care and even the end of the state's moratorium on genetically modified crops.

Finding no independents or minor parties to support, Ms Nicholson formed a plan to run herself. 

"I started to read about independents and how they can truly represent their constituents and have a voice in the parliament that's not hindered by a party line," she said.

Ms Nicholson got in touch with Chelsey Potter, a former Liberal staffer who had set up a business to encourage and support women in politics.

It is a move Ms Potter made after feeling "burnt" by her party when she revealed a colleague sexually assaulted her.

With Ms Potter's help, Ms Nicholson managed to bring the seat down to the wire.

On preferences, Mr Basham only just scraped back into parliament with 343 votes between him and Ms Nicholson.

Ms Potter said the South Australian Liberal campaign failed because the leadership did not listen to dissenting voices.

"I was talking to people over Christmas — Liberal members, Liberal supporters, lifelong Liberal voters — and they were saying 'I just am so angry, I can't vote for this government, I just feel like they're not listening to any of us'."

Independent candidate for Hammond Airlie Keen while at the Mannum Show. (Facebook: Airlie Keen - Independent for Hammond)

It was not just Mrs Habermann and Ms Nicholson. There was Airlie Keen in the Murray Bridge seat of Hammond that secured a significant swing against the Liberals.

A staffer to former Liberal MP turned independent Dan Cregan, Ms Keen secured more than 15 per cent of the vote, helping to create a 11.7 per cent swing against Liberal incumbent Adrian Pederick.

Political analyst Clem Macintyre said it is likely to change the way major parties, particularly the Liberal Party, approach the next election.

"I would imagine that the Liberals would be spending a lot of time and money thinking about what happened in rural South Australia," he said.

"[Thinking about] why there was a big swing away towards independents, thinking about the candidates they've got in those seats and what they can do to win those voters back."

Professor Clement Macintyre is an expert in politics and international relations at the University of Adelaide. (ABC News: Patrick Martin)

What it could mean for the federal election

Professor Macintyre believes the fortunes of the SA Liberals could lead voters to consider the fortunes of local independents in the federal election.

"I think it'll certainly put a spring in the step of the various independent candidates that have already announced their presence, particularly in South Australia in Boothby," he said.

The candidate for South Australia's most marginal seat of Boothby, Jo Dyer, is one of many mostly female independents hoping to play off voter frustration with the major parties.

Former Adelaide Writers' Week director Jo Dyer will run as an independent in the marginal seat of Boothby.

Ms Dyer has been the Adelaide Writers' Week director for the past four years and was an old friend and a key supporter of the woman who accused Christian Porter of rape.

More than a dozen independent candidates are receiving funding from climate activist Simon Holmes à Court, including Monique Ryan, who is running in Treasurer Josh Frydenberg's Melbourne seat of Kooyong.

"I was in Kooyong four weeks ago; I was amazed by how many posters the Liberal Party had up with Frydenberg's name and face on them when the election hadn't even been called — and this is Kooyong, the seat of Menzies and Peacock," Professor Macintyre said.

"The fact that the Liberals are spending the money they are in seats like that just tells you they're sensing some sort of shift in the mood and tells us they're spending resources there that once would have been going into the marginal seats."

Ms Nicholson said she would be back to contest the 2026 South Australian election, while Mrs Habermann may soon join the list of independent women running for a seat in Canberra.

She is yet to decide whether she will throw her hat in the ring for the federal seat of Grey.

Whether she runs or not, she is hopeful she has already had an impact.

"I think I took a lot of people totally off guard," she said.

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