You’re a manager embarking on a new Premiership season. You’re cautiously optimistic about your chances of doing something, but don't want to make a rod for your own back with definitive predictions that come back to bite you if things should go horribly wrong.
“Just looking to improve on last year” is the wary boss’ friend. It offers fans just enough hope of better days ahead but also gives you some wiggle room as the campaign goes on. Of course, it’s not applicable to everyone. Celtic and Rangers are expected to win titles every season. In fairness to Ange Postecoglou, all he can do is improve his numbers while still finishing top. The Scottish Cup is the only tangible reward he’s yet to pick up, but there’s always points and goals totals to beat.
As far as Michael Beale is concerned, it doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things how far behind or close he is if the end result is still second place. Getting closer is all well and good but almost isn’t close enough, especially after losing the Viaplay Cup Final to the Hoops.
A direct comparison of points totals a year in makes for interesting reading across the table. Record Sport looks at who’s on the up and who’s gone downhill.
Celtic + 10 points
So far, so very, very good for the champions. They are nine points clear of Rangers and a whopping ten points ahead of where they were this time last year, when the gap was a solitary point. A sticky start under Ange goes some way to explaining that. They’ve been relentless this season, only dropping points twice; a shock defeat to St Mirren and a 2-2 draw at Ibrox.
The European run this season was tougher, but perhaps crucially, shorter. It’s now full steam ahead to wrap up the league and Scottish Cup, and the final total could be a seriously impressive one based on evidence so far.
Rangers + 2 points
An improvement on last year, but Celtic’s surge means it doesn’t really matter. Apply this season’s points total to this time last year and the Gers lead the title race by a point heading into the home stretch. They got Champions League chasing, but that also means there’s no sapping run to Seville to try and balance alongside a title challenge. Another change of manager at roughly the same time is a parallel, and the new man has kept pace with Celtic since arriving, but the damage was already done under Gio.
That should offer encouragement ahead of a first full season in the dugout for Beale, but he has to start racking up regular wins over their rivals if they are to continue steamrolling everyone else. That’s the only way Rangers can get closer considering they’ve been consistent against the others since the break.
Hearts -1 point
All in all, the Jambos have to be pleased with being pretty much on the same track as last season, especially with the extra demands placed on them this time around. They cruised to third last term and went as deep as possible in the Scottish Cup without winning it. Group stage European football was something new to contend with. Istanbul Basaksehir and Fiorentina inflicted heavy defeats, but two victories over RFS gave the fans something to enjoy, not to mention the trips away. But injuries bit hard with Liam Boyce, Craig Halkett, Kye Rowles, Peter Haring and Stephen Kingsley all missing for considerable chunks of time. Craig Gordon has now added to that list.
But since getting players back and returning to a more regular schedule, Robbie Neilson’s men sit best of the rest once more. The gap may not be as wide, but they are still the team to beat outside the top two and maintaining their current consistency should see them over the line again.
Hibs +6 points
It looked like being another bottom six shambles at one point for Hibs this season. But Lee Johnson has rallied after a poor run, with a thumping 6-0 win over Aberdeen the catalyst. They’ll be eying Heats in third, although a longer run of consistent results will be needed if that’s to become a reality.
However, Kevin Nisbet’s return has been massive after losing him this time last year and a top half finish should be well within the Hibees’ grasp. Depending on how the Scottish Cup pans out (a painful exit to Hearts this term is a blot on Johnson’s copybook), fifth could even be enough for the Europa Conference League qualifiers, so being in the mix is a big step forward.
St Mirren +4 points
Is this the year the Buddies’ top six train finally pulls into the station? It’s evaded the Paisley club ever since they established themselves in the top flight, but they;ve given themselves a hell of a chance this season. Late heartache has been experienced before, but Stephen Robinson has made them a tough nut to crack, especially at home. Four points is a modest improvement on last year, but it could well be the difference.
Aberdeen + 4 points
It all looked so bright for the Dons at the start of the season. Jim Goodwin had embarked on a summer clear out, been backed heavily to bring in his own players and for a while, it looked like the Dons could take advantage of Hearts’ punishing schedule and bag themselves third.
Since then, the wheels have come off. A horrendous run of form after the World Cup break, including the Darvel debacle, cost Goodwin his job and Barry Robson has taken the reins for now. Home from was never really much of an issue, but the Reds have been rotten on the road and that must improve if they are to prevent this campaign from going south. There’s still more than enough to play for, but another poor run could prove costly.
Livingston + 5 points
David Martindale continues to do a fine job in West Lothian. Similar to St Mirren, they are a team few enjoy playing against and winning at the Tony Macaroni is no easy feat. The Lions’ form tends to come in streaks, both good and bad. They remain in the hunt for Europe, although as ever, securing a spot in the top six and taking it from there is successful regardless of where they end up within that.
St Johnstone + 8 points
Outside of Celtic, the biggest mark up from last year. Just as well too, as the Saints came very close to following up an historic double cup win with relegation the season after. A two-legged playoff win over ICT was comfortable in the end, but Callum Davidson would rather not have to go through it again.
It looks like they won’t. Top six might be a big ask, but after the stress of last term, comfortable safety would be welcome in Perth.
Motherwell -7 points
The Steelmen are on their third boss of the season in an attempt to halt the slide that threatened a first relegation since 1985. There wasn't even the excuse of European football being a distraction after Sligo Rovers sprung a surprise to dump them out of the Europa Conference League at the first hurdle. Graham Alexander was jettisoned after that as Stevie Hammell stepped up to the top job.
He lasted until January when a change had to be made following a Scottish Cup exit at the hands of Raith Rovers. League form was alarming, although Stuart Kettlewell has provided some relief with a couple of wins, which were enough to land him the gig on a permanent basis. There’s still work to do though as only three points separate them from a playoff berth.
Ross County -3 points
Another survival struggle for the Staggies, but only three points of a difference form last season will offer hope of escape again. They occupy the playoff spot just now, but a thumping 4-0 win over relegation rivals Dundee United at the weekend could be the catalyst they needed.
10th would be acceptable for Malky McKay and Motherwell will be in his sights. United pulled the trigger on Liam Fox and those above them will be wary of a new manager bounce, but County have been in this situation before and know how to handle it.
Dundee United -13 points
The biggest swing of all 12 top flight clubs. To fall from fourth and challenging for Europe to four points adrift at the foot of the table points so something having gone seriously wrong. Like Motherwell, the Tangerines are on their third boss if the season after Jack Ross’ bad start, including absolute hammerings against AZ Alkmaar and Celtic, meant his stint was a short one.
Newly promoted Kilmarnock are their first target, and Derek McInnes’ men haven’t been great shakes themselves this season. But they have a manager who can grind out results whereas United currently don’t even have a manager. There’s time to salvage safety, but things need to improve fast before it’s too late and they find themselves back to where they don’t want to be; the Championship.
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