After 545 days, the NFL’s widely-panned legal drama “Deflategate” ended last Friday when Tom Brady closed Season 3 by posting to Facebook that he “made the difficult decision to no longer proceed with the legal process” and accept his four-game suspension. It was a dark shift from the Photoshops and memes that usually fill his page.
While the outcome was undoubtedly a victory for NFL commissioner-cum-dictator Roger Goodell, Brady sitting a handful of games at the start of the season has long been viewed as a punishment that would very likely help the quarterback and his New England Patriots team-mates in the long run. In fact, 14 months ago when we thought this story had ended with Goodell’s initial four-game ruling – oh, how young and naive we were back then – I wrote in this very space about how New England would still win in the end.
“The Patriots are a team that has been honored and applauded by the football media for a generation. Yet now they can easily take on their favorite “us against the world” stance ... Brady will be rested for a playoff push and beyond. The Patriots will get to develop their quarterback of the future in Garoppolo for four regular season games or show him off to other teams for a deal that gets back their lost draft picks and more.”
Very little has changed in the past year. The Bills, Dolphins and Jets still don’t have the look of teams primed to capitalize on their weakened (and weekend) nemesis, Brady will still benefit from an extra month off and the Patriots remain confident in Garoppolo as a fill-in. Another Patriots division title feels inevitable, if only because it’s all we’ve seen for a generation and because it feels very Goodellian for the commissioner to end up the loser when the final Deflategate chapter is written – maybe even forced to hand the Lombardi Trophy to Robert Kraft and Brady in February. It would be his greatest and most public humiliation in a career filled with them.
But hope is what gets us out of bed in the morning. At the very least, it’s what convinces Bills, Dolphins and Jets fans to get out of bed every fall Sunday. Brady’s suspension has lifted their spirits, so let’s at least humor the idea that the Patriots could be in serious trouble without their franchise QB. Is it really all that far-fetched? You decide.
The biggest difference between the 2015 Patriots that were potentially facing four games without Brady and the 2016 edition that is definitely without him is the schedule. Last year the Patriots opened at home against a Steelers team sans Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Maurkice Pouncey. Then they played a Bills team adjusting to a new coach and new quarterback, followed by the Jaguars and Cowboys. It was not exactly a murderer’s row of tackle football opposition. The Patriots could have started a 60-something Steve Grogan at quarterback and managed to at least go 2-2, and then stomped on the gas with Brady back. You’ll recall the Patriots opened 10-0 last year, only suffering their first loss on the last Sunday in November in Denver in overtime.
It’s not the same cakewalk this year. Week 1 sends the Patriots to Arizona, a 13-3 team with Super Bowl aspirations. New England currently sits at 5.5-point underdogs. Then it’s the Dolphins at home (OK, so it’s not all bad), followed by Garoppolo being chased around by JJ Watt in primetime and then a match-up against the Bills, who will be convinced via much profanity by the Ryan twins that the game is their Super Bowl and best shot at winning the division. Brady will get to slide back in with a scout team-quality opponent in Cleveland, but then must turn it up to 11 with the Bengals, Steelers, Bills and Seahawks all waiting right in a row. There’s no way New England open 10-0 this year. The question is how far off that mark they are and if the Bills, Jets or Dolphins can do anything with it.
The wildcard in the whole presumption of continued Patriot dominance is Garoppolo. What if he’s simply not, you know ... any good?
Click through any “NFL busts” slideshow on the internet. Plenty of first-round “sure-thing” quarterbacks from high-pedigree schools have failed spectacularly in the NFL. Garoppolo is a second-rounder from Eastern Illinois who has thrown a total of 31 in-game passes over the last two years. Patriots diehards use the reasoning that if Belichick believes in Garoppolo, he must be a sure bet. But if you’ve not been taken in by the cult of Belichick, you know that since hitting on Brady in 2000 and taking Garoppolo in 2013, he has drafted Rohan Davey, Kliff Kingsbury, Matt Cassel, Kevin O’Connell, Zac Robinson and Ryan Mallett and signed Brian Hoyer as an undrafted free agent. The new Patriots starter will have to buck a pretty significant trend just to not be awful. Brady is very much Belichick’s exception, not the rule.
If Garoppolo struggles, is it insane to think the Patriots could start 1-3 or even 0-4? And then what if a rusty Brady can’t tear apart Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Seattle just to get New England in the playoff hunt? Would the Patriots be doomed at 3-6? Imagine all the cell phones smashed in New England, not to hide evidence, but simply out of sheer anger.
It’s easy to say that Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will give Garoppolo a gameplan that will limit the damage he can do. They will at least try. Rob Gronkowski’s size and Julian Edelman’s ability to find openings underneath coverage are thick and comfy security blankets that any quarterback would love. But Garoppolo will still be required to throw the ball to them. If he struggles through the air, the running game won’t provide much help. The Patriots were 30th in the NFL in rushing last year and Dion Lewis is still completing rehab on a torn ACL. It’s a lot of pressure on a quarterback whose last start was a loss to Towson in the 2013 FCS playoffs.
While Garoppolo struggling could doom the 2016 Patriots, the dream scenario for the haters is the instability the franchise would face for the long-term if he proves to not be Brady’s heir apparent in anything beyond handsomeness. Brady has been durable throughout his career thanks to a mixture of training, genetics, good luck and whatever weird potions his sketchy personal guru provides him. Yet the fact remains he will turn 39 next month. The Patriots would very much like to have their replacement on the roster and ready to go. If that’s not Garoppolo, then who is it? Jacoby Brissett, a third-round pick in April, showed promise at NC State, but hoping some unknown pans out would mean the Patriots are no better set at football’s most important position long-term than a team like the Jets. The Jets.
It’s not inconceivable that the Patriots are in for a long and disappointing season and maybe even a sustained downturn. It’s also not probable. But at least the rest of the AFC East has some hope. That’s something even Tom Brady can’t destroy.
