MPs return to Westminster today to a packed agenda. From Brexit to the Budget, here are six of the big issues to look for in politics this coming Autumn:
Coronavirus 1 - the latest challenge in the seven month crisis is the return of pupils to schools in England and Wales this week. This is a big test for Boris Johnson which he has to pass if he is to persuade parents to go back to work in offices and revive city economies.
It is an even bigger test for beleaguered Education Secretary Gavin Williamson who took a pounding over the exams U-turn. He’s in front of the Commons today answering questions.
Coronavirus 2 - So is Matt Hancock, the UK Health Secretary, who will talk up the government’s great success in track and trace, er maybe not, or the quarantine policy that will see Portugal put back on the list of destinations that require 14-day isolation.
With hospitals on standby for a winter surge in the virus and a vaccine still some way off we’re going to be living with the coronavirus crisis for some time to come.
Jobs bombshell - from today the government’s furlough scheme is reduced to 70 per cent of wages up to a monthly limit of about £2,200 with employers expected to make up the extra ten per cent. The scheme is reduced to 60 per cent support in October and then ends, according to current plans. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is under tremendous pressure to extend the scheme in different sectors but is resisting so far on the grounds that he has spent enough money. Which brings us to...
Budget - the financial statement in November is when the nation starts paying back the vast sums that have seen us through the coronavirus crisis. It is only September but lots of kites are already being flown above the Treasury. A 5p rise in fuel tax, possibly? The abolition of pension tax relief for the better off? An end to the guaranteed 0.7 per cent of GDP for international development, being argued about. This is a budget, we reckon, that will please very few people.
Brexit - Behind everything is Brexit. Trade talks are faltering and unless something comes out of the big meeting between Boris Johnson and EU leaders this month it looks like a no-deal Brexit will occur. That could pile on tariffs and customs duties and create more uncertainty in a tough winter economy.
The Union - The Brexit wrench, we’ve already left but when the transition comes to an end in January it will become a reality, throws into question the future of the United Kingdom itself. The issue hums in the background in Westminster, with the Tory government wishing it would go away, but fights over funding, fishing, and much else besides will reach a crescendo as the next year’s Holyrood election looms.
And finally... As Harold MacMillan said “events, dear boy, events” can blow a government off course at any time. The US Presidential election will set the global political weather but anything from a scandal to a natural disaster could befall the government at any moment. Stay tuned, it’s going to be some ride this Autumn.
