The fight for a top-four finish in the Premier League this season is fierce, with Arsenal battling Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Chelsea for a spot in the Champions League.
Arsenal ’s recent victory over United has put the Gunners back in fourth position with eight games to go, while arch-rivals Tottenham are now within touching distance after a major decline and the gap over Chelsea is three points following the Blues’ defeat to Everton.
With eight games to play, a total of 24 points remain on the table and that means the maximum amount of points Unai Emery’s side can finish with is 84 - with Tottenham’s highest tally 85.
Manchester United can still achieve a total of 82 points, with Chelsea’s highest tally being 81. However, it is impossible for all four sides to achieve a maximum points tally between now and the end of the season.
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This is because United and Chelsea still have to lock horns at Old Trafford, which could provide a significant boost for Arsenal and their quest to return to the Champions League .
But when could Arsenal seal a top-four finish? And on what date could St. Totteringham’s Day be celebrated? We have crunched the numbers and taken a look.
The earliest date
Arsenal could celebrate a return to Europe’s elite competition on April 21 but it would require a significant turn of events, with Manchester United and Chelsea both needing to fall off the wagon completely.
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The Gunners would need to win each of their next four games against Newcastle United, Everton, Watford and Crystal Palace - which, although possible, will not be easy.
On top of that, they would also require United to pick up just a single point from their next four games and would also need Chelsea to earn no more than two points in that period - both of which seem extremely unlikely.
The likely scenario
With the race for a top-four finish extremely tight, it is highly likely that the battle will extend into May and potentially until the final day of the season - although, if Arsenal extend their advantage over United and Chelsea to five and six points respectively, the penultimate weekend on May 4 could be decisive.
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With Manchester United and Chelsea set to tackle the week before, and the Blues having Liverpool to face while United have the small matter of the Manchester derby in their mind, that is certainly possible.
In the last two seasons, a final points tally of 75 points and 76 points have been enough to secure fourth spot in the Premier League, which would leave the Gunners needing a total of 16 points from 24 available.
That would allow Arsenal to drop eight points during that period, meaning they require five points and a draw from eight matches.
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St. Totteringham’s Day
While the top-four remains Arsenal’s main objective, the possibility of celebrating St. Totteringham’s Day once again would be the perfect way to end Emery ’s first year in charge at the Emirates Stadium.
Heading into the final eight games, the Gunners trail their arch-rivals by just a single point and will fancy their chances of leapfrogging the Lilywhites after the international break as Mauricio Pochettino’s side face-off against title-chasing Liverpool.
As it stands, the earliest date that Arsenal could celebrate St. Totteringham’s Day is April 23 but that would require the Gunners to win their next four games and Spurs would need to lose all of their games in that period.
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Again, that is unlikely but Arsenal can take some confidence in the fact Spurs have to face Liverpool and Man City, which potentially gives the Gunners the chance to open up a lead over Spurs, if they lose or drop points.
But the north London rivals look set for a close battle between now and the end of the season.
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