An analysis of match data says England are more likely to make the Rugby World Cup final if they finish second in Pool C, despite that outcome making it likely that they face Wales in the quarter finals.
The analysis says winning Pool C would make it statistically less likely for England to end up in the final than if they come second. A second place finish in the group would be the result if England lose to France in their final pool game. That would also mean a likely quarter final against Wales, provided the Welsh beat Fiji and Uruguay in their final two pool games.
But before any Welsh fans take offence, it's not quite as simple as suggesting that the presence of Warren Gatland's men in their path makes it easier for England. In fact, it's quite the opposite — because the data also shows that England are less likely to make the semi finals if they have to face Wales.
If they overcome Wales, however, it's more likely they make it all the way. Still with us?
“The reason for this is simple: the fact that New Zealand will most likely be the semi-final opponents if England win Pool C,” Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at sports data firm Gracenote, told The Times.
This makes England almost twice as likely to reach the final if they finish second in the pool.
The statistical analysis was conducted for The Times . It is based on the Rugby Vision system, which calculates the expected score margin and probability of each team winning. It was designed by a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is based on 70 years of international results, with more weight given to recent matches. It also takes account of the strength of the opposition.
It shows that if England win their pool (and therefore probably avoid Wales) they have a 72.8% chance of making the semi finals. If they come second (and therefore probably face Wales), their chance of making the semi finals drops to 67.8%.
But if they lose to France, come second in the pool and beat Wales, their chance of going on to make the final is 41.3%, based on them meeting South Africa in the semis. This drops to 22.8% if they face the All Blacks.
