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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK

The risk-reward ratio – why people really do crazy things

Hatton Garden burglary trial, London, Britain - 01 Dec 2015Rex Features Ltd. do not claim any Copyright or License of the attached image Mandatory Credit: Photo by REX/Shutterstock (5464912c) CCTV from inside the Hatton Garden safe deposit company showing unidentified suspect 'Basil' (flat cap) and Daniel Jones (fluorescent jacket) Hatton Garden burglary trial, London, Britain - 01 Dec 2015
‘We had a go’: two of the Hatton Garden robbers, captured on CCTV. Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

At some point in life, there comes a “what if” moment – when you’re tempted to do something very much out of the ordinary. A moment of potential rebellion.

For some, it’s the temptation to cheat on a test at school – or on a partner. For others, it’s much, much riskier. New crime thriller American Animals brings to life the true story of a library heist at Transylvania University in Kentucky, when four friends attempted to steal rare books valued at $10m. High stakes indeed.

Flitting between interviews with the real-life perpetrators and dramatisation of the events, the film tracks the crime from its “what if” moment – when the main character is given a tour of Transylvania’s rare book collection – to the spiral into an elaborate heist, as full of risk as reward.

But, psychologically speaking, what is it that makes us move from a madcap idea to actually carrying out something most wouldn’t dare attempt? Criminologists look at this all the time when trying to decipher why people commit crimes, and the answers are many and varied – individual character traits and external factors all contribute to the motivation.

First of all, there’s the risk factor.

How risk-averse or rebellious people are can be as varied as their personalities, but risk is also a question of perception. “We modify our perception of risk all the time,” says Joan Harvey, chartered psychologist at Newcastle University – so it’s something that is affected by our own personal biases.

“Say, for example, you come to a very, very busy street with buses and cars speeding down the road.

“You decide you can take the risk and march across. The risk that you’re actually running is that you get run over. Which ultimately, isn’t really worth it.”

One modifier, though, is our experience of the risky act. If you witness someone being hurt running across the road, for example, you’ll be more careful from then on.

Yes, stealing rare books worth millions seems a far cry from the kind of risk people make crossing the street every day – but the brain evaluates the risk in a similar way.

“Take a bank heist – on the one hand, you could think the risk of getting caught is 50/50, while the reward is £10m,” said Harvey. “But getting caught means 10 years in jail. Nobody is going to get that calculation exactly right – you’re pretty much making it up, you’ve got no idea. The risk is not something you’re able to compute.”

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American Animals tracks a crime from its ‘what if’ moment to its denouement. Photograph: American Animals

Prof Mike Berry, clinical forensic psychologist at Birmingham City University, describes a crime as difficult and daring as the one depicted in American Animals as “the Everest” – a huge challenge, where pulling it off is half the satisfaction.

“They get a buzz out of committing the crime, to be able to say to themselves, they’ve done it, they’ve pulled it off,” he says.

While heists like these have become rarer over the years, public fascination with them has not waned. Remember the media frenzy over the infamous Hatton Garden heist. The burglars were caught on tape by police, discussing being behind “The biggest robbery in the fucking world,” and adding: “If we get nicked, at least we can hold our heads up that we had a last go.”

Of course, the reality is, there is no sudden jump from the “what if” moment to the glory of a notorious heist – there is a lot of work to do first. Psychologist Dr Susan Marchant-Haycox says research indicates that those who deal with the high risk of imprisonment tend to be meticulous planners.

“Career criminals take more trouble in planning their crimes than others who commit them on impulse,” she said.

And again, she adds, not all the reward is monetary.

“To some, it is a sense of achievement, power, and the adventure of beating the system.”

American Animals is in cinemas now

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