By the time Jérôme Garcès blows the final whistle at Welford Road on Sunday evening, at least three English clubs should be well on their way to the Champions Cup quarter-finals. Saracens, Leicester and one of Wasps and Bath should be sitting very pretty at the end of the weekend’s action, and I would not bet against Exeter confounding expectations away to Clermont. Northampton’s backs, though, not to mention their forwards, are firmly against the wall.
Exeter Chiefs’ win over Clermont was the story of the round for me. Three years ago they lost 46-12 at home to the same opponents but last Saturday they won the fixture 31-14. They outmuscled Clermont around the fringes and held them in the scrum, which are significant achievements, and they used that power as the basis to play with freedom and enthusiasm.
The confidence and ambition of Rob Baxter’s side are phenomenal, as has been their ability to learn quickly after opening their European campaign this season with defeat at Ospreys. They have evolved and improved every year and that is testament to the great job Baxter and his team of coaches, particularly the attack coach, Ali Hepher, are doing. History says they will struggle at Clermont, where they lost the return fixture three years ago 46-3, but I am reluctant to put a limit on what they can achieve.
The opposite to Exeter at the moment are Northampton. While Baxter seems able to get the most out of every player, the Saints are struggling and they were badly shown up in their 33-3 defeat by Racing 92 last Saturday. In their backline George North has disappeared, Ben Foden looks a shadow of himself and Luther Burrell seems to be trying too hard. The big-name players are not performing – Tom Stephenson looked their best back against Racing and he is only 21.
It is a similar story with their forwards. Tom Wood and Dylan Hartley were missing against Racing but high-profile performers such as Victor Matfield, Courtney Lawes and Kieran Brookes needed to give some leadership and they did not seem able to. The 23-year-old Teimana Harrison was their best forward and with a squad of their quality that is unacceptable. They are effectively out unless they can turn things round on Friday evening and they will need a reaction from their leading men. We have not seen much this season to suggest we will see one.
George Ford at Bath is a big name who has received a lot of criticism recently but he did tremendously well to nail his goal at the end to secure victory over Wasps last weekend and that will have been a real boost to his confidence. It also checked Wasps after their outstanding start to the pool and puts Bath in with a real shout.
Wasps’ director of rugby, Dai Young, said they overplayed a bit. They obviously got the balance spot on in their big wins against Toulon and Leinster but slightly lost it against Bath. Young was scathing of his side because they had enough opportunity to win the game but that makes me think they can still do it at Bath on Saturday, which would put them back in pole position.
Leinster were pretty toothless in defeat by Toulon and lacked power without Sean O’Brien, and it is becoming clear they are not the force of old. So that puts Bath and Wasps’ wins against them into some context. I am not impressed with Toulon, either, who have an abundance of power. They have the quality to turn things around but I think they have two particular problems: they have not replaced Ali Williams in the lineout or Carl Hayman in the scrum.
They have a variety of lineout jumpers in Samu Manoa, Romain Taofifénua, Duane Vermeulen, Steffon Armitage and Mamuka Gorgodze but none is particularly good at getting off the ground. Their scrum is enormous but it is spearheaded by Matt Stevens, a very decent player but one whose best days are behind him. Having gone from Hayman to Stevens they no longer have the dominance they are used to.
Toulon could yet click as their quality is undeniable but I think the winners of Bath v Wasps have a real chance of topping what looked a formidable pool. They both have Toulon (in Bath’s case twice as their first game was postponed following the Paris terror attack) and Leinster to come and I do not think they should fear either based on what we have seen so far.
Saracens and Leicester should have nothing at all to fear and if they both win this weekend they are as good as through. Saracens will definitely get five points against Oyonnax on Saturday and that will be them done. If Leicester beat Munster at Welford Road on Sunday they have effectively qualified because they will certainly beat Treviso next up.
Leicester’s win at Thomond Park last Saturday was enormous. They were a bit fortunate before half-time but Ben Youngs scored a great try and they cemented their excellent start to the season.
The threat from the Celtic League seems insignificant this season and I do not see Munster getting anything at Welford Road after losing to the Tigers at home, which should mean Monsieur Garcès oversees a happy end to a happy weekend for the English clubs.
