While Friday’s announcement set out the steps Auckland will need to take before coming out of Level 3 lockdown, DHBs can only move as fast as the slowest in the pack
After weeks turning into months of lockdown seemingly without end for Auckland, the Prime Minister indicated on Friday for the first time what the city's transition to freedom will take.
The exit sign awaits a 90 percent fully vaccinated population in each of the three Auckland DHBs.
This shouldn’t be too hard, Ardern seemed to say, optimistically half-promising Aucklanders would be able to leave their municipal bubble by Christmas time.
"You are so close,” Ardern said. “Right now you're just 16,000 vaccines away from every DHB hitting 90 per cent for first doses.”
Behind her encouraging tone, the numbers are in fact a little more dire. The 16,000 until 90 percent at first doses is a mere waypoint on the way to all three DHBs reaching 90 percent double-dosed - and with Counties Manukau lagging behind with 72 percent of people fully-vaccinated, it could still be some time before Aucklanders can get an eyeful of the light at the end of the tunnel.
The announcement specified all three of the DHBs that make up Auckland will need to hit that 90 percent, so although the central city Auckland DHB is at 80 percent double-dosed - significantly closer to target - the whole city will remain in Level 3 until the slowest DHB can catch up.
Counties Manukau will need over 100,000 first and second doses to reach the target - more than double the 40,000 of people across the entirety of Auckland who got a first or second dose during last week’s Super Saturday vaccine drive. That saw thousands turn out in Counties Manukau to get the jab, but not quite enough to close the gap.
Speaking at the Beehive on Friday, Ardern said the reason why the 90 percent milestone was focused on each DHB was to allow for more equitable outcomes.
Counties-Manukau have been the centre of much of the inequities in the vaccine roll-out, with high Māori and Pacific populations that have been the centre of several outbreaks.
Dr Pete Watson, deputy chief executive and chief medical officer of Counties Manukau Health, was optimistic about the DHB’s prospects.
“We are confident our South Auckland community will rise to the 90 percent challenge and get fully vaccinated,” he said.
Figures and data from the Ministry of Health show that although Counties Manukau is behind when it comes to second doses, the area was closer to Auckland and Waitemata DHBs when it comes to first doses.
Counties Manukau had 420,059 people, or 87 percent of the eligible population with one dose - while Auckland and Waitemata had 93 percent and 90 percent respectively.
So while there are 135,636 eligible people from Counties Manukau who are yet to have their second dose, a significant proportion of them will be in the wait time between the two doses.
As thousands of first doses were given out last weekend, that number should reduce over the next few weeks.
But with second dose counts being the only thing that will allow Aucklanders to move from Level 3 to level red, it remains to be seen whether these numbers can get some momentum before Cabinet reassesses the situation at the end of November.
Ardern signalled that the imminent introduction of vaccine certificates should help to drive those numbers up at a faster rate, as people who are still on the fence about the vaccine realise that vaccinated Kiwis will be afforded more freedoms as summer approaches.
“If you want to get a haircut, get vaccinated,” said Ardern. Haircuts, with summer festivals, bars and sports events, are all a part of the multi-pronged carrot the Government have wielded to try and jab their way through the last hesitant and hold-out groups.
Auckland had done the heavy lifting, Ardern said, and she hoped these changes would give the city more certainty about the future, instead of having to wait on weekly announcements.
However, with an assessment of vaccination rates in the city not due until November 29, and only a half-indication that higher rates sooner will bring that date forward - the future is still murky for the City of Sails.
