If Wales' daily Covid update from Public Health Wales is anything to go by, it might seem the nation is far from being out of the woods yet.
Wales' infection rate is now, thankfully, falling rapidly after the virus re-surged in September to reach an all-time high of 730.9 per 100,000.
As of November 6, Welsh infection rates dipped below 500 to reach 499.5 for every 100k people. Even so, it's still the highest rate in the UK with Northern Ireland's rate at 426.1, Scotland's at 348.3 and England's at 346.5.
Less than a month ago, Wales had the fourth-highest infection rate in the world.
As well as falling infection rates, there are other signs giving reason for optimism as we head out of the third wave and into the festive period. The latest infection rates for Wales are shown in the graph below.
For example, we know the vaccination programme rollout is having a massive effect on not just infection rates but also preventing people from ending up in hospital with the virus. Of course, there are people in Welsh ICUs with Covid and people are still dying every day, which is desperately sad. But these numbers are considerably lower than at the same stage in both the first and second waves.
And the data shows that coronavirus isn't as rife in our schools as it was during the first few weeks of the new Autumn term.
We've dug a little into the data and gone through the latest Public Health Wales figures, as well as national data, to try and make sense of what is happening and find the signs for optimism.
Cases are falling or stable in nearly every age group
The number of coronavirus cases has dropped in all age groups in the past two weeks apart from in people aged 20-29.
Encouragingly, the number of cases in school-age children in Wales has dropped by more than a fifth in the week ending November 10. Last month we reported how Covid was rife among pupils in the first few weeks of term.
The latest data shows a third (30%) of all cases currently being diagnosed in Wales are still being found in children aged 0-10 and older teenagers aged 10-19.
On Tuesday, Welsh health minister Eluned Morgan said rates of Covid were declining in schools and that she was "really pleased to see that happening". Ms Morgan said falling rates among school-age children was in part down to vaccinations among that age group, with many children and parents coming forward for their jabs over the half-term break.
Apparent waning in vaccine protection may be reversing
At the end of September, we reported how cases in the over-90s were increasing at a concerning rate, thought to be a result of waning immunity. People of this age would likely have had their first jab at the end of 2020 or January 2021 meaning they'd gone almost 10 months since their first jab.
But this trend could be reversing, as explained in the tweet below, which is based on English data:
The main point of interest is that each line estimates the real-world effectiveness of vaccines over time. Staying on 0% means no waning while negative means more waning. It's based on UK Government data on Covid case rates found in vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
The ratio between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cases shows how effective the vaccine is. Over time, we can see this ratio declining, suggesting the vaccines are getting less effective over time, or in other words, waning. But this is starting to reverse in the oldest age group, suggesting their immunity is being boosted, in part because of the booster jab.
The rate of booster jabs is gathering momentum
More positive news comes on the sudden jump in the rate of booster vaccinations being administered. The weekly run-rate is now over two million per week in England and in Wales, 103,715 booster jabs were given in the last seven days.
The Twitter thread below shows how the uptake of booster jabs means that the gap between those eligible and those unvaccinated is closing in England.
In Wales, three in ten people who are currently eligible for their booster jab have now received it.
The rise in hospitalisations with Covid has stopped and may even be falling
The falling of cases in all groups is starting to show in the hospital stats which show a sustained plateau in Covid hospitalisations at a suppressed level when compared to the equivalent stage of the second wave. Even more encouragingly, ICU occupancy appears to be stabilising and has not risen to the same levels seen at the peak of the second wave.
As of November 11 there were 733 people in general and acute hospital beds with coronavirus (confirmed, suspected, and recovering), a minor rise on the 732 reported on November 10. There were 67 people in a ventilated intensive care bed with Covid-19 on November 11, a drop on the 73 reported the day before.
Any potential coronavirus restrictions in Wales will be "all about the NHS," the Welsh health minister said on Tuesday. Ms Morgan said on Tuesday: "Clearly we're keeping an eye on the situation." She added it is difficult to separate the normal winter pressure and the additional pressure brought about by Covid.
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