In early June, Australia was reporting only a handful of Covid-19 cases each day. By the end of July, daily cases were into the hundreds, with a lockdown back in place around Melbourne.
Across Europe, we are seeing similar rises in cases as countries have reopened, from Belgium to Spain and Switzerland. In the UK, restrictions have also been reintroduced after local flare-ups in cities such as Manchester.
We essentially have a “transmission budget” when it comes to Covid-19. Create too many risky situations and cases can rise rapidly, especially given potential for the “superspreading events”, with outbreaks in places like stuffy meeting rooms, stifling bars and sweaty fitness classes. If we’re frugal with our interactions, we can help keep transmission down, and help avoid tighter measures.
That means meeting people in small groups, dining and drinking outside, avoiding close-knit contacts, and self-isolating and getting tested if we have Covid-19 symptoms.
If we go “overbudget” and take too many risks too often, the price will likely be a rise in cases — and stricter measures to prevent a repeat of the first wave.
There there are clear signals from multiple places about what happens if measures are relaxed. We should not ignore them.
Adam Kucharski
Associate professor in infectious disease epidemiology at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Editor's reply
Dear Adam
I am desperate to go out and enjoy London with friends over what is expected to be a scorching weekend. I am also planning a last-minute holiday. But you are right to urge caution. The serious threat of a London lockdown hangs over all of us.
You talk about a “transmission budget”, while Boris Johnson talks about a “whack-a-mole” strategy. The principle is the same: living with coronavirus is a constant balancing act. It is down to all of us to take precautions.
Sophia Sleigh, Political Reporter
