It’s never too early to start thinking about Selection Sunday, right? So much of how teams end up seeded on the second Sunday in March comes back to how they played in the nonconference slate, when league strength gets evaluated and résumés get built. That’s particularly true for teams hoping for No. 1 seeds, given how little room there is for error to end up on the No. 1 line.
Here’s a look at the early race for those four top spots in the 2023 men’s NCAA tournament.
Today’s four No. 1s
No. 1 overall: Purdue
The Boilermakers’ three neutral-court wins over top-20 NET opponents are doing a lot of work here, as the team’s win over West Virginia on Thanksgiving has joined its headliner victories over Duke and Gonzaga as significant needle-movers at this moment. Those three wins, plus a home victory over Marquette, gives Purdue the nation’s best résumé at this point and a real inside track for a No. 1 seed come March. The Big Ten provides very few opportunities for bad losses and plenty of chances to pad the Quadrant 1 and 2 win columns, so the Boilermakers can afford some slipups during league play and still wind up on the No. 1 line. I’d imagine 15–5 or better in the Big Ten would put Purdue in an extremely strong position for receiving its first No. 1 seed since 1996.
UConn
UConn has a strong case for being the nation’s best team qualitatively, sitting at No. 1 in the NET rankings and No. 2 in KenPom with nonconference play in the rearview mirror. That alone is enough to put the Huskies on the No. 1 line at this point, as it’s hard to argue about putting a team that has won every game it has played by double figures and has seven high-major wins.
Still, there is a bit of vulnerability in UConn’s résumé long term if the Huskies slip up a few times during Big East play. The team’s neutral-court win over Alabama is doing a lot of work here, as none of UConn’s other wins are ones to truly build a résumé around. And while there should be plenty of chances for good wins in Big East play, Creighton’s six-game slide earlier this month means there are likely no great wins out there in conference play for the Huskies. Others could pass the Huskies if they don’t post a gaudy win-loss record, jeopardizing UConn’s chances of staying in the East Regional and getting to play Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games at Madison Square Garden.
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Houston
The Cougars are one of four teams in men’s college basketball with four Quad 1 wins and have done the necessary work in nonconference play to position themselves for a top seed. While its fourth Q1 victory over Kent State seems unlikely to stay in that bucket come March, the Cougars’ road win at Virginia is one of the better wins any team has on its résumé.
Playing in the AAC is a double-edged sword. On one hand, Houston has a chance to really stack wins down the stretch, and it’s hard to imagine a team with elite metrics, a road win at an ACC contender and no bad losses sitting at something like 32–3 going into Selection Sunday not getting the No. 1 nod. At the same time, Houston has little it can do to move to needle and several games that could do real résumé damage should it lose.
Kansas
The defending national champions are in solid shape as things stand now, with high-quality wins against Indiana at home, Duke and Wisconsin on neutral floors and on the road at Missouri. The Jayhawks are in the top five of both the NET and KenPom, their only loss to a fellow top-five team in the NET (Tennessee), and they may not play a single game outside the first two quadrants for the remainder of the season. That’s a pretty good recipe for holding on to this top seed.
Last year’s Kansas résumé withstood four conference losses and getting blown out in late January by Kentucky at home en route to a No. 1 seed. Five defeats the rest of the way once again should likely be the target—any more and the Jayhawks’ total quantity of losses could come into play against other high-seed contenders, but any less and KU will likely be in the mix not just for a top seed, but potentially the No. 1 overall spot.
Other top contenders
Arizona
Arizona’s big wins at the Maui Invitational haven’t aged quite as well as hoped so far, but the Wildcats have still built an impressive résumé and look to be among the favorites in the Pac-12. Circle Jan. 21 and March 4 on your calendar, the two days UCLA and Arizona play, because winning that season series would certainly be a big lift to the Wildcats’ No. 1 seed hopes. Otherwise, Arizona needs to hope Creighton and Indiana have strong conference seasons and that its December loss to Utah remains solidly in Quadrant I territory.
Tennessee
The Vols are our first team mentioned with two losses, currently buoyed by elite predictive metrics and a neutral-court win over Kansas. That said, its bad loss at home against Colorado is already a résumé anchor and the worst loss owned by teams currently in the serious No. 1 discussion. The top of the SEC is strong, and there will be legitimate opportunities for Tennessee to notch big wins against the likes of Alabama, Arkansas and Kentucky. However, things do fall off rather precipitously in the league’s bottom half, even though several of those teams are still talented enough to pull off an upset or two. That tends to be a bad recipe for maximizing seeding.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide beat North Carolina on a neutral court and won at Houston, a pair of wins few if anyone can match. Their losses to UConn and Gonzaga are also extremely forgivable. That said, they do head into SEC play lagging a bit behind from a metrics standpoint, sitting at No. 8 in the NET and No. 12 in KenPom. An Alabama No. 1 seed case will likely be made on elite wins, especially if it can finish in the top two of the SEC. There’s a clear path here in a conference that feels rather wide open at the top.
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UCLA
The Bruins missed opportunities early when they lost to Illinois and Baylor at the Main Event in November, but have since turned things around with big wins over Maryland and Kentucky to jump back into the top five of KenPom and No. 6 in the NET. Like Arizona, they’ll likely need to win the Pac-12 and hope that those two top nonconference wins look good in March, but there’s a fairly straightforward path.
Gonzaga
Gonzaga hasn’t looked the part from a qualitative standpoint, but the Zags have beaten Alabama, Kentucky, Xavier and Michigan State, have no bad losses and may well be favored in every remaining game they play. It doesn’t seem at all unrealistic to suggest that the Bulldogs will win out and end up 31–3, with no losses outside of Q1 and some great wins. As other teams navigate tougher conference schedules and beat each other up, it’s hard to believe a team with that résumé wouldn’t be seriously in the conversation for the top line.
Fringe contenders
Whoever wins the ACC
Between North Carolina’s early four-game skid, Virginia’s recent losses and drop in the NET and Duke’s lack of elite wins, it’s hard to say any ACC team is overly well-positioned to get on the top line. Plus, early results have shown plenty of parity league-wide, with Wake Forest winning at Duke, Virginia Tech holding serve at home against UNC and Virginia losing on the road at Miami. That’s a bad recipe for earning a No. 1 seed.
Kansas’s top Big 12 challengers
I’m less bullish on Texas and Baylor’s hopes because of how much of a grind the Big 12 projects to be. It’s going to be hard to stack wins in this conference with how competitive it is top to bottom. Texas’s home wins over Gonzaga and Creighton aren’t quite the wins we thought they were at the time, and the Longhorns’ loss to Illinois looks far worse than it did at the time given how poorly the Fighting Illini have played since. Plus, Baylor has already been blown out by Marquette and has dropped out of the top 15 of the NET and KenPom.
Arkansas
There’s a ton to like about this Arkansas team, but the path to the top line is a shaky one. The Hogs’ best nonconference wins are over San Diego State and Oklahoma, their loss to Creighton no longer looks so elite and now star guard Nick Smith Jr. is out indefinitely as he manages a nagging knee injury. If the Hogs win the SEC, they’ll be on the No. 1 line, but it’s hard to see a path otherwise, and a young team with multiple starters sidelined seems likely to pick up a few regrettable losses early in conference play.
