Good evening, I’m Ben Jacobs, and this is the Guardian’s new-look politics minute. In the run-up to the midterm elections, I’ll bring you the latest from Washington and beyond every Monday, Wednesday and Friday evening. If you’re not already receiving this rundown by email, sign up.
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Donnelly to vote no on Kavanaugh
Joe Donnelly was one of three red-state Democrats to vote for Neil Gorsuch’s confirmation. The Indiana Democrat announced Friday, however, that he would vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment.
What it means The politics are shifting on Kavanaugh. Unlike the other two Democrats to vote for Gorsuch – Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia – Donnelly represents a state with a significant urban center in Indianapolis and a vast chunk of prosperous Republican-leaning suburbs. It’s a sign that the drama around Kavanaugh has tilted the political calculus in Indiana.
So other Democrats will vote against him too? Unclear. A new poll in West Virginia shows that nearly 60% of voters there support Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
The house is out
If you are a member of Congress, you now have 39 days that you can devote entirely to campaigning. The House adjourned on Friday until after the midterms election.
What does this mean for the midterms? It means incumbents facing tough races (i.e. a few dozen Republicans) now have more time to meet voters, raise money and not be stuck in Washington casting votes.
So this helps Republicans? Yes, more time on the campaign trail gives them a better chance of winning
Blue state Republican governors bail on Kavanaugh
Three Republican governors in very Democratic states have all said the Senate should not vote now. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Larry Hogan of Maryland and Phil Scott of Vermont all have said a vote should be delayed.
So Republican support is weakening? Nope. These are Republicans all running in states that Hillary Clinton won by more than 20%. They need a ton of Democratic votes to win – and they are politicians …
But this is a change? Not really. All three declined to sign a letter of support of Kavanaugh over the summer.
Poll of the day
Dianne Feinstein, the top Democrat on the Senate judiciary committee has been in the crossfire over her handling of Dr Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations against Kavanaugh. And it could potentially resonate in her re-election.
A new poll has her up only 40%-29% against fellow Democrat Kevin de Leon.
Fellow Democrat? California has a top two primary system where the top two finishers in a non-partisan primary advance to the general, so in this case the general election is between two Democrats. De Leon is running to Feinstein’s left and seeking to appeal to progressives.
So who do Republicans vote for? The assumption was that they’d back Feinstein. In the first round of voting, Feinstein got 44% of the vote and De Leon received only 12%. However, that was before Feinstein’s handling of Ford’s letter raised so much ire among Republicans.
Ad of the day
West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin issued a new ad showing his support for the massive teachers’ strike in the state earlier this year. The successful strike led to a significant pay rise for teachers in the Mountain State and was very popular.
Why it matters Manchin is the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. This is one of the rare progressive causes that is still popular in West Virginia. It also reminds voters that Manchin’s Republican opponent was opposed to the strike and pointedly says that he “doesn’t respect public education” or “West Virginia”.
