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Daily Record
Daily Record
National
John Ferguson

The political landscape across the UK is changing but Scotland remains divided on independence

The SNP’s Holyrood victory shows just how divided the United Kingdom now is.

While Boris Johnson has been given a massive vote of confidence in England – not least through a Conservative by-election victory in Hartlepool – his party remains largely toxic north of the Border.

Yet, Wales turned red, giving Labour massive gains and delivering its best election results.

The final results have been announced (PA)

But voters in Scotland have made it abundantly clear Nicola Sturgeon is their choice to lead the country through what is likely to be a difficult Covid recovery period.

But what’s also clear is that Scotland on the question of independence is split acrimoniously down the middle.

And division also cuts through the SNP itself, with members at war over the best route to a referendum.

It leaves Sturgeon with a difficult balancing act on her hands if she is to keep her own colleagues and the wider population happy over the next five years.

What seems clear is that the First Minister genuinely doesn’t want to prioritise a breakaway vote.

She believes that ending lockdown and rebuilding the economy and public services after the pandemic must come first.

Sturgeon made this point in an interview with the Sunday Mail last week.

And a well-placed party insider confirmed yesterday that on arriving back at Bute House she would not be phoning Johnson to demand a referendum on day one.

Instead, she will immediately be turning her attention to forming a new cabinet after losing some big names.

Health Secretary Jeane Freeman, Constitution Minister Michael Russell, Environment Secretary Roseanna Cunningham and Communities Secretary Aileen Campbell have all stepped down.

One new MSP tipped to be in the running for a top job is former MP and Westminster leader Angus Robertson, who reversed a Tory majority to win Ruth Davidson’s Edinburgh Central seat.

A government post for former health secretary Shona Robison could also be likely, and a place for new MSP Neil Gray, who has been a solid performer at Westminster.

Whoever is offered a job in Sturgeon’s cabinet will be expected to focus on the pandemic and how to recover from the worst economic shock since the war.

Scotland has moved more cautiously out of national lockdown than the rest of the UK.

The country is currently at Level Three after spending months under the strictest measures and Sturgeon wants to move down to Level Two on May 17.

This will mean being able to meet in homes in small numbers, go to the pub and drink alcohol indoors, visit the cinema, music venues and theatres and take part in contact sport.

Assuming these steps are achieved without a significant uptick in Covid cases, attention will then turn to rebuilding the NHS, reforming adult care, a floundering education system, and the jobs market.

There will also be public inquiries into the handling of the Covid-19 crisis to negotiate.

It would be naive, however, not to expect Scotland’s constitutional future to loom large. There is a long-standing demand from the SNP that Johnson signs off on a Section 30 order giving the Scottish Parliament the right to legislate for a referendum.

While Sturgeon will emphasise she has no desire to hold a vote in the next two years, there will be an expectation that a parliament with a majority for independence- supporting parties be given that right.

Should a Section 30 not be forthcoming – and there is little reason to expect one will – a Supreme Court battle is likely.

If that fails – or should the UK Government respond to a legal victory by simply passing a new law to outlaw a referendum – it is unclear what happens next.

One SNP tactic could be to revert to its historic position that winning a majority of the Scottish seats at Westminster represented a mandate to begin independence negotiations.

How Sturgeon handles this will be crucial to her ability to maintain the confidence of her party and the country over the next five years.

She wants to play a long game, but there are many voices, including that of her former mentor Alex Salmond, who insist a more aggressive stance must be taken.

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A few months ago, as coronavirus ravaged the country, it was unclear whether last week’s election would even go ahead. And when the campaign finally

rumbled into life, it felt in many ways like the last year – distant, subdued and uneventful.

A hugely important part of the democratic process is for candidates to get out into the communities they want to represent.

They should be making speeches to packed town halls, knocking on doors, kissing babies and shaking thousands of hands.

It is one of the few chances people have to get up close to politicians and decide whether they deserve a vote.

But like so many other things in life we previously took for granted, this was always going to be a very different campaign and ultimately a lesser one.

Like him or not, the most interesting development was the re-emergence of Salmond with his new Alba Party on March 26.

ALBA party leader Alex Salmond failed in his bid to return to parliament (PA)

The former First Minister burst back on to the scene in typically bullish style, determined to secure a “supermajority” for independence.

His campaign failed, but he will remain a difficult presence for Sturgeon.

Other than that we were treated to Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s dance moves and Douglas Ross’s singing voice, but not much else of substance in a string of stale TV debates.

Nobody should be in any doubt, however, that the stakes couldn’t have been higher in terms of the ramifications for Scotland and the future of the Union.

During the past year, Covid-19 changed life in ways nobody could possibly have imagined.

But the election has shown that when it comes to the big question hanging over Scotland’s future, little has changed.

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