In the last couple of elections, commentators have been caught unawares by the Sunderland result because has meant Labour's total vote has been below expectations thanks to poor turnout. There are some more traps for the unwary in Sunderland this time.
If the Lib Dems pull into second here, it is not necessarily good news - that would be consistent with them adding votes where it does not help them win seats. Neither would an increase in Chris Mullin's vote (19,921 last time) necessarily be good for Labour, as it would suggest that the party is doing well in its safe seats but perhaps not so well in the marginals.
