The Peterborough byelection result is bad news for both the Brexit party and the Conservatives. The vote – triggered after former Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was ousted under recall rules following her conviction for lying over a speeding offence – had been touted as a perfect opportunity for Nigel Farage’s newly formed party to build on their success in the European elections and prove they’re a force to be reckoned with in Westminster.
In the end, they fell short – with Labour retaining the seat, their candidate Lisa Forbes beat the Brexit party candidate Mike Greene by 683 votes. Brexit party officials put their narrow defeat down to a lack of data and Labour having more time to prepare. The number of votes the party received is impressive for a new party but given the high expectations following the European elections the overall sense is one of disappointment. The fact that they failed to clinch the seat is a reminder of the difficulty smaller parties face in a first-past-the-post general election system. It’s something Farage knows well. He himself has sought Westminster election seven times in the past 25 years without success.
But Farage doesn’t even need to win elections with the Brexit party to cause the Tories serious damage. In the Peterborough byelection, the Conservative party came in third – at 7,243 votes to the Brexit party’s 9,801. This seat has long been a Labour/Tory marginal – one the Conservatives held from 2005 to 2017 when Labour narrowly took it back in the snap election. Now the Tories are struggling to stay in contention.
If the UK has not left the EU by the time of the next general election, Farage has vowed that the Brexit party will field candidates and destroy the two-party system. Should he fail to go the whole hog, the Brexit party need only attract a couple of thousand votes in Labour/Tory marginals to successfully eat into the Conservative vote and allow Labour to come out on top.
This is a scenario that has worried Tory MPs in leave areas ever since the Brexit party launched. Analysis by Electoral Calculus said that if a general election were called the Tories would lose 59 seats and Labour would become the largest party in the Commons. This is in part because in areas such as Walsall North – a heavily leave area which the Tories won from Labour in 2017 – the Brexit party would take such a chunk out of the Conservative vote that Labour would waltz through the middle. The Peterborough byelection result will only increase such fears.
So, how will the Conservative party respond? An outright victory for the Brexit party in Peterborough would have been heralded as a win for Boris Johnson in the leadership contest, with Tory MPs most likely to turn to him to – as he told MPs on Tuesday – put “Farage back in his box”. A narrow win for Labour doesn’t take away the threat of the Brexit party – but it does allow other candidates space to put forward their own pitches for tackling the Brexit party threat.
When I chaired the One Nation Tory caucus hustings on Tuesday night, Sajid Javid got one of the loudest cheers of the night when he declared that the Tories would not beat Farage by becoming the Brexit party. Expect Javid and other candidates like Matt Hancock to argue that this shows the party does not need to match Farage’s party wholesale.
Michael Gove
The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime.
Matt Hancock
The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant.
Mark Harper
The former immigration minister and chief whip was behind the controversial 'go-home' vans when working under Theresa May at the Home Office. He resigned as immigration minister in 2014after it emerged he was employing a cleaner who did not have permission to work in the UK. He later served as David Cameron’s chief whip. But he has not served in Theresa May’s government and has, therefore, sought to cast himself as the candidate who offers 'fresh thinking.
Jeremy Hunt
Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. Hunt has been backed by Liam Fox.
Sajid Javid
The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time.
Boris Johnson
The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate.
Andrea Leadsom
The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider.
Esther McVey
The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police.
Dominic Raab
Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed.
Rory Stewart
The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. He's become a social media darling and been endorsed by Ken Clarke, but his reputation as 'Florence of Belgravia' may hinder him.
Given the threat of a Brexit party coming in even second place poses for the Tories, the result will still send ripples through the leadership contest. In order to combat this, every Tory leadership hopeful agrees on the need to avoid a general election until after the UK has left the EU. The hope is that delivering some form of Brexit will be enough to significantly reduce the threat from Farage. However, delivering Brexit with no majority in the Commons and Brussels reluctant to renegotiate is no easy task. When it comes to the leadership contest, there is a new premium on any candidate who is able to convince their colleagues that they are up to the task: delivering Brexit while avoiding an election in the process.
• Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
