If you’re an NFL team on the Patriots’ upcoming schedule, the object that’s much closer than it appears right now should be New England’s defense. As we head into the Sunday portion of Week 12, only the Bills rank higher in Defensive DVOA, only the Bills rank higher in DVOA against the pass, and as the Patriots rank eighth in DVOA against the run while the Bills rank 12th, there’s a reasonable case for the Pats to have at least a tie for the stranglehold on the title of NFL’s best defense.
The Patriots took that award home in 2019 with their man-heavy coverages, and then fell to 26th in 2020 as opt-outs and injuries took Bill Belichick’s defense to the woodshed. But now, that defense is the woodchipper once again. And this time, it’s not just about man coverage. In man this season, New England has allowed just 65 catches on 126 targets for 941 yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions. But in zone, the Pats have given up 122 completions on 202 attempts for 1,322 yards, three touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
No matter what you do, the Patriots seem to have a defensive answer. Their 28 sacks tied them with the Steelers for fifth in the league, and their 186 total pressures rank sixth. They don’t need to blitz to get home (they’ve brought the blitz on just 22.2% of their snaps), which obviously reinforces their coverage abilities, and if you want to run on this team… well, you can to a point, but getting in the end zone is a problem. New England has allowed 1,119 yards on 273 carries, but just four rushing touchdowns.
How the Patriots’ defense has (once again) become the NFL’s unstoppable force
Into this woodchipper this Sunday walks Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who’s coming off a four-interception game against the Texans that marks a single-game career high in picks. As Tannehill will be without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown, this game would seem to be a fait accompli.
It’s entirely reasonable to assume this, but the Titans, Tannehill, and offensive coordinator Todd Downing still have to show up at Gillette Stadium to see how things play out. There’s not much Tennessee has going for it on offense, but there is one mismatch the Titans would be wise to exploit.
For all the things New England does well on defense, their response to play-action passes puts them behind the eight-ball in a surprising sense. The Pats have allowed six of their 13 total touchdowns to play-action passes with just two of their league-leading 18 interceptions, and if you count the flea-flicker Davis Mills of the Texans got them with in Week 5, you can up that to seven.
The question is whether Downing will give Tannehill, who’s always been good to great with play-action, enough opportunities to use it. In that disaster against the Texans, Tannehill had the benefit of play-action on just six of his 54 dropbacks, and all four of his interceptions were thrown without play-action.
“Obviously, it hurts,” Tannehill said of his ever-dwindling offense after the Texans loss. “You want to have your guys out there that you’re used to playing with and you’ve got reps with, but that’s where we’re at right now in the season. It’s been a tough season for us injury-wise. Guys have stepped up and took advantage of some opportunities, and there’s some things we still have to do to work through with that. Hopefully we can get our guys back, and then the guys that are just starting to get reps, that we can get more reps with them.”
When you don’t have the Jimmies and Joes, you’d better turn to the Xs and Os if you want to have a chance. This is the one possible wormhole the Titans have against New England’s outstanding defense, so Downing would be wise to avail himself of as much of it as possible.
The larger question is, why is that outstanding defense having one specific problem that’s been a problem all season?
