Some unsolicited advice to Miami Dolphins players Davon Godchaux, Raekwon McMillan, Ted Karras, Vince Biegel and the rest of Miami's group of potential 2021 unrestricted free agents:
You better be really, really impactful in your roles this season, because money is going to be tight next offseason.
And if you're a player with no 2021 dead money _ such as Jordan Howard or Emmanuel Ogbah _ you better live up to your contracts over the next five months.
Before a worldwide pandemic, the Dolphins were positioned to make another big free agent spending splash next spring, to add pricey players to augment the current core and Miami's collection of nine 2021 draft picks, including two first-rounders and two second-rounders.
But the spending spree part of that blueprint appears less likely. It's not out of the question and could still be achieved with lots of heavy lifting, but it's less likely than it was six months ago.
The NFL has announced that the cap will be at least $175 million next season, potentially more if health conditions shockingly allow for full stadiums at some point this fall.
But if it's $175 million, that would be far less than the $215 million to $230 million projected before COVID-19 changed everything.
And that means the Dolphins will need to be judicious with their money next spring.
Here's where things stand: The Dolphins currently have $25 million in 2020 cap space, per the NFL players association website. About $3 million will be needed for a 16-man practice squad. If the Dolphins get lucky with COVID-19 and injuries and don't need to use any of their remaining cap space this season, then they can carry over that $22 million to use next spring.
Problem is, Miami stands less than $7 million below the 2021 cap if it comes in at $175 million. According to my numbers and those of spotrac.com, the Dolphins have $168.5 million in 2021 cap commitments to their top 51 players under contract for 2021. Only the top 51 count against the cap.
So if Miami can carry over more than $22 million (and it will probably end up less than that), and combine it with the $7 million in current 2021 space if the 2021 cap is $175 million, that would leave the Dolphins with about $29 million in cap room next spring.
Overthecap.com's reliable Jason Fitzgerald puts the 2021 Dolphins cap space number in that ballpark, at $31 million including carryover space, and the only difference between his number and mine is that I deducted $2 million to $3 million for a 2020 practice squad, so our numbers are essentially the same. But he also warns that every team's carryover space likely will drop by $7 million or so.
And while $29 million to $31 million in 2021 space would put Miami in better position than a lot of other teams (tied for ninth-most cap space, per Fitzgerald), it's not a ton, considering that the cost of signing a 2021 draft class and a 2021 practice squad will eat up a chunk of that, leaving Miami with perhaps $16 million.
Most of that space would disappear if Miami simply re-signs Godchaux and McMillan and signs Karras or another center.
But it won't be as simple as that. Even if this season goes splendidly, it's impossible to conceive of the Dolphins not wanting to add a handful of new free agents next spring. And those players will consume cap space.
So how does Miami create that space? By restructuring some players or jettisoning others who don't play up to expectations this season and have contracts without much dead money.
Miami could save $9.3 million against the 2021 cap next spring by releasing Xavien Howard and $5.7 million by cutting Bobby McCain.
Also, the 2021 cap hits of Ogbah ($7.5 million) and Jordan Howard ($5 million) and Clayton Fejedelem ($2.5 million) could be completely erased by simply cutting them next offseason. To be clear, cutting Xavien Howard would only be worth considering if he's injured much of this season or plays poorly. Otherwise, you keep him in 2021.
Miami also could work to reduce the 2021 cap numbers of some among Byron Jones ($16.1 million), Kyle Van Noy ($13.9 million), Xavien Howard ($13.5 million), DeVante Parker ($11 million), Ereck Flowers ($10 million), Shaq Lawson ($9.3 million), Ogbah ($7.5 million) and McCain ($7.1 million).
Moving on from Jakeem Grant after this season would save $2.9 million, which isn't worth it if he plays well this season. Cutting Allen Hurns would erase just $700,000 of his $2.9 million 2021 cap hit. Cutting Wilson would erase $2.9 million of his $5.2 million hit. Remember, the 2020 contracts for Hurns and Wilson _ the two Dolphins who opted out of playing this season _ have become their 2021 contracts.
So there are ways to make it work as Miami enters Year 3 of the rebuild, a year when there shouldn't be excuses. But it's going to be far more challenging than anyone could have expected. And Godchaux and McMillan will really need to stand out to earn sizable new contacts.
