The Only 5 ETFs To Trade In Q4 – And How To Do It

ETFs

The last leg of September is here, and a new pattern is emerging that could lead to one of the most explosive quarters we've ever seen.

Q4 has always been a powerful stretch for certain names — especially large-cap leaders, tech stocks, and retailers that benefit from holiday spending cycles.

And this year, the setup is even stronger. 

But here's the thing: not every stock and exchange-traded fund (ETF) will rally.

This isn't a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats kind of rally. It's selective.

Matt Maley's Strategy for Shutdown Volatility

Markets are bracing for a wave of catalysts: a potential government shutdown, the September jobs report, and fresh Fed signals. On Sunday, September 28, Matt Maley will show you exactly how he's positioning — from locking in quick gains to leaving room for bigger swings. Watch the Strategy Live

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

In the 30 trading days preceding Thanksgiving and the 15 days after, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA) has posted a positive return in 9 of the last 10 years. And the average gain across those 9 years? Roughly 7%.

That makes this one of the most statistically reliable seasonal windows of the year for this ETF. But what makes it even more compelling this time around is the current price structure:

• DIA is consolidating after a strong summer rally
• Volatility remains low
• Institutional fund flows tend to accelerate heading into Q4

To capitalize on this pattern without tying up tens of thousands of your hard-earned cash, there are two option strategies you could use: 

1. Long Call:
   1. Buy the DIA December 19, 2025, $460 Call at $15.55
   2. Your break-even is at $475.55 (strike price + premium)
   3. If DIA hits $500 (about a 6% move), this call could double in value
2. Bull Call Spread:
   1. Buy the December $480 Call and sell the December $490 Call Spread for $2.50.
   2. Your max gain is $750. 
   3. This is a lower-cost, limited-risk strategy that benefits from a move to the upside.

The trade window for this began on September 22 and runs through early December.

United States Oil Fund

Oil typically peaks mid-summer and begins to weaken as we head into fall. And that's exactly what we're seeing with the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) ETF right now:

• Repeated rejections near the $80 level
• Current support near $72
• A close below $72 would trigger a bearish technical breakdown

If USO breaks below $72, you could use a bear put spread to profit from a move down to the high $60s:

• Buy the USO October $72 Put and sell the $68 Put spread for $1.50.
• Max profit: $250 on $150 risk

Your timeframe is two to three weeks following USO's move down. 

SPDR Gold Trust

Gold has quietly rallied more than 10% this summer, but what's even more important is that the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) ETF has now hit all-time highs (on an inflation-adjusted basis).

That means gold is breaking out without all the hype. The usual signs of retail speculation (like gold ads and panic headlines) are missing. That's a bullish sign.

And with the Fed's new quarter-point interest rate cut—and a weakening dollar—GLD is gaining ground as a safe-haven store of value.

Here are two ways you could trade it: 

• Buy the GLD November $180 Call if gold continues to hold above its breakout level
• Or enter a GLD $180/$190 call spread for a lower-cost trade with defined risk

In either position, your target is a 10% move by Thanksgiving. 

iShares Bitcoin Trust

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) had a strong summer, up roughly 25% from its lows, and is now consolidating around the $116,000 area.

Now, historically, BTC tends to rally into the end of the year, especially in years with strong second- and third-quarter performances. And this year, that pattern looks like it could repeat.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) is the most liquid Bitcoin ETF available with options. It’s an ideal proxy for those who don't want to hold the crypto asset directly.

And there are a few ways you could trade it:

• Watch for a move above $117,000 in BTC or a break above recent highs in IBIT
• Buy IBIT November or December calls
• Consider call spreads to reduce premium risk and increase leverage

Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF

The Magnificent "Mag" 7 (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia) continue to dominate both earnings and price action. Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS:MAGS), the ETF tracking these names, is up 20% since late June.

Add in headlines like "Google Becomes a $3 Trillion Company" and "Tesla erases all of its steep 2025 losses after Elon Musk buys $1 billion in shares," and it becomes clear that big tech is still driving this market. So, you could consider:

• Buying call spreads on MAGS into Q4
• Or looking at individual trades on Tesla (TSLA) and Google (GOOG), which show strong seasonal tendencies into the year's end. 

Keep in mind that these are not official trade recommendations—they're trading strategies you could use to profit. 

And it's important to know what these are now—before Q4 begins. 

Because when you peel back the layers further, the data becomes even more compelling. In fact, when I researched historical market recoveries following 20% drawdowns, I found that the average supercycle bull market lasts 6.5 years, with gains exceeding 300%. Right now, we're roughly 80% off the lows from 2022, which means we're only about halfway through a much larger cycle. Combine that with rising AI investment, tech leadership, and falling inflation — and the case for a prolonged bull market gets even stronger.

Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.

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