It’s a huge weekend in the race for the final play-off place in the Championship.
As it stands, three sides in the form of Bristol City, Middlesbrough and Derby County can all secure a spot in the top six on the final day.
Derby currently occupy sixth place and hold a slender one-point lead over Middlesbrough and sit a further point ahead of Bristol City.
Of course, whoever manages to grasp that final play-off spot will most likely set up a mouth-watering tie with Leeds United in a play-off semi-final.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side narrowly missed out on automatic promotion, but will secure third spot should they gain a point against relegated Ipswich Town on Sunday.
Even in the case of a defeat, West Bromwich Albion would have to beat Derby to knock the Whites out of third.
Who of the three sides would best suit United stylistically and tactically?
Derby County
Heading into 2019, Frank Lampard’s side looked a shoe-in for a play-off place. Yet three consecutive defeats in mid-February looked to threaten his sides chances and nearly saw them slipping out of contention.
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Lampard managed to steady the ship and his side are now in the best position of any of the three sides, although they do welcome fellow promotion hopefuls West Brom on the final day.
The former Chelsea midfielder usually plays different variations of a 4-5-1 and although his side don’t particularly excel in either defence or attack, they have struck up a fairly decent balance of ranking in the top eight of the tables for both.
Similar to the Whites, although less effective, Derby aim to dominate possession of the ball. They average 406.53 passes per 90 minutes which ranks fifth in the division. Additionally, they also rank fifth in terms of their average ball possession with 54.4 per cent.
Notably, United rank in the top two in both of these departments.
Furthermore, both sides rank first and second in terms of their eagerness to press. In terms of Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA), which focuses on how many passes a team allows before essentially moving to regain the ball, Leeds average just 6.31 whereas Derby average 8.16.
In truth, these sides are tactically both very similar, except Leeds seem to be just that bit better in each department. This would most likely illustrate why they managed to secure the league double over the Rams this season and why Derby may be the best opponents for Leeds.
Middlesbrough
At one point, the wheels were in danger of well and truly falling off for Middlesbrough after losing six straight league matches between March and February.
Luckily for them, they won four of the following five league matches and are still within a shot of play-off success providing there are no slip-ups away at Rotherham United.
Tony Pulis’s style needs no explanation. His 3-5-1-1 formation, while not always pretty, can be very effective. Unsurprisingly in the Championship, only Sheffield United conceded fewer than his side's tally of 40 goals this season.
Remarkably, their Expected Goals Against (xGA) total for the season is 55.66, indicating they should have conceded around 15 goals more than what they did this season given the chances created against them, which is pretty remarkable.
Yet due to his defence focused set up, the same old problems rear their head for Pulis, as his side's total of 47 goals scored is the fourth lowest in the division. They also have the sixth lowest ball possession in the Championship.
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This means they are often happy to relinquish possession of the ball and invite the opposition to try and carve open chances through their robust set up.
Tactically, this could pose a problem for the Whites. They have often struggled against sides this season who set up in a low block and allow little space for Bielsa’s team to exploit. This partly explains why both matches between the two sides finished a stalemate this season.
While possessing more talent than Pulis’s side, their rigid setup could cause Leeds problems and for that reason, they’re probably the side they want to avoid.
Bristol City
Seemingly always in and around the promotion picture, Bristol City’s recent poor run of one win in five leave matches leaves them as real outsiders to secure a top-six spot.
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Like Boro, Lee Johnson’s side have one of the better defensive records in the league playing his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation, however their attack has scored just 58 goals this campaign which ranks an underwhelming 15th in the division.
City are well rounded although they don’t particularly excel in any department. They will try and play good football and attack the opposition, yet sometimes lacking the ability to do it well has seen them punished by some of the better teams.
They have managed just four wins in 14 matches against the current top seven this season, which included two defeats to Leeds.
United's ability to press in a coordinated pack and to progress the ball well should see them have enough to bypass Johnson’s side, should they make an unlikely leap into the top six on the final day.
