The rate of spread of Covid-19 is falling in every part of Wales except one.
While experts say it remains too early to draw clear conclusions about the impact the recent 17-day fire-break lockdown had on transmission the latest numbers appearing to be encouraging. However one part of Wales has seen a substantial rise in cases.
We've gone through Public Health Wales data to see the places in Wales where the disease is spreading the most quickly. We compared the latest set of figures, released on Friday, November 13, with those from seven days before.
These figures are seven-day rolling totals for new cases adjusted for population (per 100,000 people). It is important to remember that though these figures are a useful guide they are just part of the story.
The picture in Ceredigion:
The west Wales county is the only part of Wales to see a rise in cases over the last seven days.
According to health minister Vaughan Gething this is down to an outbreak in a care home. An investigation by WalesOnline has found that flaws in the testing system overseen by the Lighthouse Labs has led to the virus taking hold in several Welsh care settings.
It should be noted that because Ceredigion has such a low population a small number of cases can make a big difference to the cases per 100,000.
During Friday's coronavirus briefing for Wales Mr Gething showed this slide of the rates of confirmed coronavirus cases per 100,000 people:
Addressing what it showed the health minister said: "You can clearly see the cases peak in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf, where we’ve seen the highest levels of coronavirus in Wales, before they have started to fall back sharply in the last few days.
"The seven-day rolling average incidence rate in Merthyr Tydfil has fallen from a high of almost 770 cases per 100,000 people to around 420.
"In Wrexham, which had the highest rates in north Wales, the incidence rate has almost halved to around 150 cases per 100,000 people.
"The overall Wales rate has now fallen back to around 170 cases per 100,000 people.
"In every part of Wales the trend is down except in Ceredigion where cases are rising largely because of an outbreak in a care home.
"Sadly, and despite all our efforts to keep coronavirus out, in many parts of Wales we have seen outbreaks in care homes."
In the first wave of the pandemic Ceredigion was barely affected by coronavirus, which was largely attributed to a 'homemade' test, track, and trace system. Read about that here.
The places where the virus is falling fastest is Swansea and Cardiff which have both seen nearly a 50% fall in cases according to most recent data:
Merthyr Tydfil is still the place in Wales with the highest incidence rate. The First Minister indicated earlier in the week that the military were working on plans to deliver mass testing in the area. A further meeting between politicians and the military took place in regard to this on Thursday and during Friday's briefing Mr Gething said the possibility remained under review with ministers wanting to see further evidence about the impact of such a scheme in Liverpool.
This table shows the growth rates in every local authority:
